Projekty badawcze

Use of remote sensing for management of blue-green infrastructure in urban climate change adaptation (LIFECOOLCITY)

LIFE21-CCA-PL-LIFECOOLCITY/101074553 - LIFE

The ambition of the "Use of remote sensing for management of blue-green infrastructure in urban climate change adaptation” (LIFECOOLCITY) project is to support the management of blue-green infrastructure (BGI) in 10,000 cities in the European Union. It will be met by implementing innovative systems that utilize Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing (satellite and aerial imagery). The goal is to enhance the adaptive capacity of cities to the effects of anthropogenic climate change and bring them closer to the model of smart cities of the future.

As a result, city administrators and residents will have access to four informational products grouped into two computer systems. These will help identify the most significant adaptive needs of their urbanized areas, develop a BGI management strategy to minimize climate-related risks, and monitor the effectiveness of their interventions.

The EUROPE system, based on satellite data, will identify areas with intensified environmental challenges in European cities and include two products:

• "EU cities Ranking of BGI": a free report published periodically from 2025 until the end of the project, providing an assessment of the state of BGI in at least 10,000 cities in the European Union. It will offer insights into the trends in BGI conditions in cities, allowing for a comparison of the scale of problems and adaptive needs in different locations.
• "BGI SAT-MONITORING Report for city": a paid report containing more detailed information on the spatial variability of specific city's environmental issues. Orders for this report will be possible starting from 2025. It will include maps illustrating the spatial distribution of environmental problems within the city and highlight areas with the highest intensity of such issues. Ordered periodically, it will provide knowledge about the change in the range and severity of environmental problems within the city.

The CITY system will operate based on information obtained from aerial surveys and will serve as a decision-support tool for implementing specific Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) at the city level. Within the CITY system, it will be possible to order two paid products:

• "BGI AUDIT Report for city": This report will identify key intervention areas for BGI within the city and propose the most beneficial nature-based solutions. The BGI audit will also identify ecologically valuable areas that should be protected due to their positive contribution to climate change adaptation.
• "BGI AIR-MONITORING Report for city": This report will assess the state of implemented BGI solutions and their effectiveness.

The first city for which a BGI reconstruction concept will be developed based on the project's products is Wrocław. By utilizing aerial data and remote sensing informational products, the city's needs will be identified. Subsequently, actions will be implemented, including BGI reconstruction, changes in the maintenance of green areas, and the protection of particularly valuable locations in terms of climate change adaptation. The effectiveness of the implemented changes will then be evaluated.

During the project, an informational and educational platform called "Life in Cool City" will be created, providing direct access to the developed informational products. It will serve as a knowledge base regarding the utilization of remote sensing in urban climate change adaptation.

The project involves seven organizations:

• MGGP Aero (lead organization)
• Wrocław City
• University of Łódź, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, UNESCO Chair of Ecohydrology and Applied Ecology
• University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences
• Ingenieurgesellschaft Prof. Dr. Sieker mbH
• Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences
• UNEP/GRID Warsaw at the National Fund for Environmental Protection

The project activities are planned for the years 2023-2029.

An agent-based integrated assessment of climate and social tipping points

UMO-2022/46/E/HS4/00023 - SONATA BIS

Recently, climate-economy models have intergated climate tipping points into the climate policy assessment. It has been shown that their inclusion increases the estimates of economic losses due to climate change. A climate tipping point is a critical value in the temperature or other environmental variable, after which it is crossed, the catastrophic event may occur. However, current models are still not well equipped to study multiple social tipping points. A social tipping point describes a critical number of adopters of a new technology, after which its further adoptions are driven by self-reinforcing positive feedback mechanisms. Such points can have synergic, complementary or antagonistic impacts on the carbon dioxide emissions, thus may slow down or accelerate climate tipping points. For instance, digitalization and electrification of transport, if adopted by a critical mass, would increase electricity use.

This would require massive investments in renewable energy to support the low carbon transition. However, investments in renewable energy will be mineral intensive. As a result, the process may be undermined by the scarcity of rare metals and minerals, unless a critical mass of rare metals embodied in consumer products is recycled. The net effect of these mechanisms has not been assessed quantitatively, which we will do in this project. Our goal is to identify the positive social tipping cascades so as to avoid negative tipping cascades in climate.

To this end, in this project, we will develop models for integrated assessment of climate change impacts using an agent-based modelling method. Agent-based models have been suggested as a new wave of climate change modelling. They offer a behavioural alternative to mainstream economic models. In particular, each aggregate equation in traditional economic models, e.g. describing capital accumulation or total consumer spending, is replaced by the network of interacting agents, namely: heterogeneous consumer, firms and investors. This allows for modelling diversity of behaviours, bounded rationality and social interactions. As a result, ABMs offer a better starting point for integrating social tipping points than traditional models. The project will results in novel agent based intergrated assessment models to study multiple social and climate tipping points.

Preferences and incentives, and the effective development of the human capital:economic and neuro-psychological approach

2021/42/E/HS4/00305 - SONATA BIS

Education is recognized as one of the most important factors determining the pace of economic development.

The resources and quality of the workforce affect economic performance, the rate of technological progress, and the entiresociety’s functioning. Research on the influence of human capital on the economy is well documented both in thetheoretical and empirical literature, hence the growing need to understand the processes and mechanisms behind it.This project aims to study cognitive and neuropsychological factors influencing the mutual relationship betweenstudents’ preferences and competencies development.

This is a particularly important topic for two main reasons. First,it allows for the understanding of factors influencing the motivation of students towards the learning process and futurecareers. Second, motivation towards learning (that results from preferences) is the key factor for educational success.To shed light on this issue data set will be collected where competences would be assessed using state-of-the-artpsychometric techniques, and at the same time, preferences would be revealed with hypothetical choices method (Discrete Choice Experiment).

The novelty of this project also lies in discovering the neuropsychological andneuropsychological background of human capital formation.  Based on the theoretical and empirical literature review,the main hypotheses are as follows:  1. There is a statistically significant relationship between the results obtained bystudents and their preferences.  2. Preferences and thus the effectiveness of learning can be shaped by non-invasivebrain stimulation.  

To assess the relationship between preferences and competences both need to be measured withinone quantitative study. To measure preferences Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) will be applied. Utility functionparameters will be estimated using Random Parameter Logistic Models. To measure educational outputs(competences), we will use a state-of-the-art psychometric approach based on the IRT model. Both imputed individual-level parameters and IRT-scaled competencies will then be used to assess the mutual relationship of the preferencesand motivation factors with competences and educational outcomes. Besides, we will use well-established internationalbenchmarks by reporting results on the scale directly comparable to OECD’s PISA international scale. 

Does Constitution Making Matter? The Economics of Writing Social Contracts

UMO-2022/47/I/HS4/03170 - OPUS LAP

Economics as a social science is interested in rational decision making under constraints. Traditionally, the constraints economists have studied concerned the availability of resources. This narrow view has, however,

broadened dramatically decades ago when economists started to understand that the methods they had developed could just as well be applied to decision-making under any other constraints, such as laws, customs, or self -imposed ethical rules. If violating constraints is costly, economists can study how these expected costs change the behavior of (at least somewhat) rational individuals.

The resulting field of institutional economics has been highly successful and is today a part of the mainstream in economics. Constitutional economics can be understood as a particular branch of institutional economics that is interested in the most fundamental rules based on which a society is organized. Constitutional economics started out as a normative discipline interested in the question what “good” constitutional rules are. In recent decades, constitutional economics has become more and more positive, asking questions about how the world functions, rather than what it should look like. Using empirical, especially statistical, methods and large datasets, constitutional economists have studied the effects of constitutional rules on economic development and many other outcomes of interest. More recently, constitutional economists have asked why some constitutional rules are effectively enforced, while others are largely ignored by government or society. In both these approaches it has been assumed that constitutional rules are already in place. It is the goal of this project to move away from this simplistic assumption that constitutional rules are given and we should only care about what they do to us. Specifically, in this project we are asking the question how constitution-making procedures influence the contents of constitutions and possibly their success in terms of the legitimacy they enjoy, the duration for which they survive, and the degree to which politicians comply with the constitution. The constitution recently drafted in Chile underlines the importance of asking this question. After what was supposed to become the first post-Pinochet constitution

had been drafted over several years, it was eventually rejected in a popular referendum. Given that constitutions survive on average less than 20 years, it is clear that every year a new constitution will be passed somewhere and understanding how to improve the quality of these constitutions and their likely success can hardly be overestimated in its importance. In our research project, we collect data and use econometric methods to study real-world constitution-making around the world at the country level, as well as use experiments to see how individuals in controlled settings perceive the outcomes of constitution-making under different procedures.

Water-based solutions for carbon storage, people and wilderness

101036484 - HORYZONT 2020

WaterLANDS aims to enable an upscaling of the restoration of wetlands. Socio-economic factors, insufficient stakeholder engagement, lack of government commitment, lack of funding and inadequate exchange of knowledge of restoration methods have all been identified as barriers to successful restoration. Consequently, most restoration has been modest in scale, has occurred mainly where there is a single landowning or responsible organisation, and has often been undertaken principally for reasons of conservation. WaterLANDS will work to overcome these barriers. It includes both Action and Knowledge Sites, the former being the object of restoration upscaling, and the latter a source of best practice experience and knowledge. To provide for local support and sustainability, it will aim for the co-design of restoration with the on-going engagement of communities and stakeholders. It will investigate best practice in ecological restoration which meets both biodiversity and social objectives and for which restoration trajectories are specific to the physical and cultural context of the Action Sites. It will propose supportive governance structures appropriate to this process and to local and national circumstances. It will identify business models, economic incentives and international funding sources and tailor or direct these resources for each site. The project will pull this expertise and knowledge together in a co-creation work package. Process-indicators will be developed to enable on-going assessment of restoration success in terms of ecosystem services, socioeconomic embedding and financial sustainability, to ensure wide-scale restoration which catalyses scalability beyond the life of the WaterLANDS project.

Rozwiązania nawadniające służące gromadzeniu węgla, ludziom i przyrodzie

536688/PnH2/2021 - Premia na Horyzoncie 2

Na podstawie części IV. ust. 11 komunikatu Ministra Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego z dnia 12 kwietnia 2019 r. o ustanowieniu przedsięwzięcia „Premia na Horyzoncie 2” zmienionego komunikatem Ministra Nauki i Szkolnictwa Wyższego z dnia 18 czerwca 2020 r. o zmianie komunikatu o ustanowieniu przedsięwzięcia „Premia na Horyzoncie 2” w odpowiedzi na zgłoszenie o numerze rejestracyjnym 536688/PnH2/2021 Minister podjął decyzję o przyznaniu wsparcia finansowego podmiotowi: Uniwersytet Warszawski  przeznaczonego na dodatki do wynagrodzeń dla osób biorących udział w realizacji projektu pn. „Rozwiązania nawadniające służące gromadzeniu węgla, ludziom i przyrodzie”, Akronim Waterlands, nazwa angielska „Water-based solutions for carbon storage, people and wilderness”. Projekt ten jest realizowany w ramach programu ramowego w zakresie badań naukowych i innowacji HORYZONT 2020. Kwota finansowania projektu w europejskim programie badawczym przez Unię Europejską przypadająca na Uniwersytet Warszawski wynosi 55 875 euro, natomiast kwota dofinasowanie w ramach przedsięwzięcia „Premia na Horyzoncie2” 51 549 zł.

Celem projektu WaterLANDS jest zwiększenie skali odtwarzania terenów podmokłych. Jako główne czynniki utrudniające odtwarzanie torfowisk identyfikuje się obecnie: czynniki społeczno-ekonomiczne, niewystarczające zaangażowanie interesariuszy, brak zaangażowania rządu, brak funduszy, a także niewystarczającą wymianę wiedzy o metodach odtwarzania terenów podmokłych. W związku z tym większość odtwarzanych obszarów podmokłych w poszczególnych krajach UE jest niewielka. Głównym celem WaterLANDS jest, na podstawie starannie wyselekcjonowanych studiów przypadku, dokładne zrozumienie i wskazanie zaleceń umożliwiających pokonaniem przeszkód dla zwiększenia skali odtwarzanych terenów podmokłych. W ramach WaterLANDS zostaną zbadane najlepsze praktyki i instrumenty finansowe, które są i mogą być pomocne w odtwarzaniu terenów podmokłych, i które spełniają cele związane z ochroną różnorodności biologicznej, jak i cele społeczne.

Development of a methodology for estimating cultural ecosystem services

1060429 - OPUS

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment identified four major categories of ecosystem services, three of them are direct services: provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services, which are indirect as they are necessary for providing other services. Provisioning services are the products directly obtained from ecosystems (e.g., food, fiber, timber), regulating services are the benefits obtained from the regulation of ecosystem processes (e.g., climate regulation, water regulation) and cultural services which are defined as the non-material benefits people obtain from nature, these

include recreation, aesthetic enjoyment, physical and mental health benefits and spiritual experiences. Cultural services contribute to a sense of place, foster social cohesion and are essential for human health and well-being. Although cultural ecosystem services are greatly valued by diverse stakeholders and score highly in assessments of public perceptions, they suffer from poor quantification and integration in existing management plans. Cultural ecosystem services are seldom reflected by economic indicators and are rarely marketable. Incorporating cultural services into ecosystem services assessments is indispensable for comprehensive accounting of the contributions of ecosystems to human well-being and, thus, avoiding bias toward other ecosystem services and unwanted trade-offs in land management, but their integration is a challenging task. Current research on ecosystem services is strongly focused on biophysical assessments in relation to regulating services or in monetary terms in relation to provisioning services. A widely overlooked component of ecosystem services is the socio-cultural domain, which requires alternative evaluation approaches, drawing on a wide range of social science tools and methods.

This research is aimed to fill this gap by developing novel tools that will allow to incorporate cultural ecosystem services (recreation, aesthetics and health benefits) into environmental management and decision-making. This will be done by developing a new data collecting and modelling framework, which will allow to quantify cultural ecosystem services in monetary terms at local, regional and national level. In addition, we will develop a spatially explicit model which will allow to evaluate trade-offs and synergies between cultural and provisioning services.

The sub-objectives of the proposed project are:

- to develop a new approach to collect nature-based recreational data which will enable to understand and quantify how people make nature based recreational choices,

- to develop a new revealed preference modelling framework to model sites selection for recreation,

- to develop a new SP modelling framework which will allow to integrate SP data with RP data,

- to develop a combined stated and revealed preference modelling framework which will enable to link recreational benefits with characteristics of ecosystems,

In addition, we will:

- test behavioral anomalies in a wide range of economic goods important in assessing cultural ecosystem services,

- map cultural ecosystem services at the country level.

Reducing climate based health risks in blue environments: Adapting to the climate change impacts on coastal pathogens (BlueAdapt)

101057764 - HORIZON EUROPE

BlueAdapt brings together an interdisciplinary team of biologists, climate scientists, economists, epidemiologists and public health experts to investigate and quantify the future health risks associated with selected coastal pathogens. BlueAdapt will provide tools to assess the impacts of policy responses and communicate the results to a wide audience ? including both policymakers and the public.

A conceptual framework will be developed around existing models of One Health and Ecological Public Health, to help wider engagement with the complex nature of the issue. Horizons scanning and downscaled climate modelling will feed into lab based experiments and the development of simulations around how changes in climate variables, interacting with other environmental change, may influence the state of selected microbial pathogens of public health concern in coastal waters. Case studies will illustrate how One Health and Ecological Public Health concepts can be used to generate action and identify potential barriers to adaptation.

Health impact assessment and cost-benefit analysis will inform appropriate action. BlueAdapt Innovation Slams and policy workshops will help deliver wider impact from the project including new-to-firm and new-to-market products and services

Food Provision through Sustainable Farming Systems and Value Chains (VISIONARY)

101060538 - HORIZON EUROPE

VISIONARY wants to make a difference in food system transitions, by identifying what factors underlie the path dependencies and ‘lock-ins’ in current unsustainable food systems, and showing how these can be overcome. VISIONARY will tackle both, policy and business shifts as drivers that are necessary to make a change at the system level.  

The project aims to improve the sustainability of agriculture by promoting practices in food production systems that are more environmentally friendly, economically viable and socio-culturally appropriate. VISIONARY focuses on existing initiatives, practices and (policy) interventions (case studies) that are still niche or small-scale, and investigates the barriers to scaling up and out.

Case studies cover value chain examples with a differing complexity, different environmental policy transitions pathways  and existing agri-food system examples, namely the shift to organic farming and more plant-based protein production and consumption. At its core, VISIONARY uses methods from experimental and behavioural economics to identify barriers and appropriate behavioural interventions (nudges, education, incentives) for farmers and consumers.  

The novelty of VISIONARY lies in the combination of experimental methods with a systems thinking approach, considering the whole agri-food system as an influence on farmer decisions. The innovative combination of quantitative and qualitative data from a variety of methods is our important methodological contribution to more system based research.

Comparability will be achieved by applying the same or similar methods across  case studies in Germany, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Italy, Spain, Denmark and the UK. In order to achieve improved capacities, for researchers in behavioural and experimental research, as well as for policy makers and value chain actors to, utilise such research, VISIONARY will work with these actors in Science-Policy-Interfaces set up alongside the case studies. 

LAnd use and MAnagement modelling for SUStainable governance

1060429 - HORIZON EUROPE

As part of the European Green Deal, the EU must achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The land use sector has a key role to play, which is recognized in the “Fit for 55 package”, where a climate neutrality target for the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) is set for 2035. To enable fundamental transformations in the land use sector necessary to achieve the Green Deal, LAMASUS proposes a step change in land use sector governance from policy formulation to implementation to monitoring.

The project is driven by four key elements: EVIDENCE – dynamic monitoring of land use, management and related policies for evaluation and model calibration; UNDERSTANDING – state-of-the-art econometric and biophysical models to assess the role of past policies on changes in land use and management, and their economic and environmental impacts; TOOLS – a highly-integrated policy modeling framework with full sectorial coverage from agriculture and forestry to the whole economy, accounting for carbon, biodiversity and all relevant sustainability dimensions, at multiple scales (land

use actors, country, EU level, global); GUIDANCE – a multi-level stakeholder dialogue for co-design of agriculture, forestry and climate policies by the EC, national and local governments and citizens, made accessible to stakeholders across multiple spatial scales through the novel web-based LAMASUS Portal.

In this way, LAMUSUS will create a new level of societal engagement in which local actors contribute to the design of effective and efficient EU policies for climate neutrality and will serve as an exemplar for other policy processes within the European Green Deal.