Projekty badawcze

From Top to Tails: Decoding the Hidden Patterns in Cultural Consumption

UMO-2024/55/I/HS4/02760 - OPUS LAP

The digital revolution has profoundly transformed cultural and creative industries, reshaping how content is produced, distributed, and consumed. This project, led by researchers from the University of Warsaw and the University of Lausanne, explores how these changes affect individual cultural consumption patterns across different industries, such as music, books, films, and video games.
Digitisation lowered barriers for creators, while a simultaneous shift from physical formats to online distribution opened the way for niche products with audiences scattered around the world. The combination of these changes contributed to a rapid increase in the number of available products and a simultaneous growth of both the sales concentration at the top (a superstar effect) and of the share of sales comprised by the huge number of low-selling titles (the long tail). Beyond that, digitisation also affected the diversity of what is produced, discovered and eventually consumed. Prior research showed remarkable shifts in the characteristics of most popular titles, changes in representation of minorities across creative content, growing roles of artist collaborations, brands, franchises and much more.
As the markets evolved, new intermediaries have gained an increasing say in what gets to be produced, promoted and recommended to audiences. At the same time, new technologies equalised access to content across regions to an unprecedented level – raising concerns of globalization in culture. In response, many policymakers responded in initiatives aimed at promoting local culture and creators – whether through implementation of quotas or direct support to national creators. Importantly though, most of these phenomena and trends have been studied at aggregate market levels, based on information on sales of different titles, often from top charts or bestseller lists. However, far less is known about how individual consumption behaviours have evolved. Does the broader availability of content translate to diverse personal habits, or are consumers confined to narrower niches? Do observed trends reflect evolving
preferences within generations, or are they driven by new cohorts entering the market? This project aims to address these questions by shifting the focus to individual patterns and exploring how they contribute to broader market dynamics. We believe that such perspective is crucial for understanding cultural trends, as well as for the development of comprehensive policies targeting consumption beyond its aggregate levels.
This project investigates these hidden patterns in cultural consumption, addressing four key questions:
1. How is cultural consumption distributed at the individual level?
2. How do individual consumption patterns contribute to aggregate cultural consumption trends?
3. What is the role of age and cohort effects in the overall trends in cultural consumption?
4. How do patterns identified in questions 1-3 differ for different cultural and creative goods?
The study adopts an innovative approach, by analysing huge datasets on individual consumption histories for several creative industries. These datasets include music listening events from Last.fm, virtual bookshelves from Goodreads users, gaming activity from Steam and movie picks from Letterboxd or IMDb users. These sources will allow us to analyse millions of consumption events from hundreds of thousands of individuals. By focusing on the audiences instead of products, the project moves beyond traditional market analyses to provide a deeper understanding of the actual consumer experience of digitisation.

Use of remote sensing for management of blue-green infrastructure in urban climate change adaptation (LIFECOOLCITY)

LIFE21-CCA-PL-LIFECOOLCITY/101074553 - LIFE

The ambition of the “Use of remote sensing for management of blue-green infrastructure in urban climate change adaptation” (LIFECOOLCITY) project is to support the management of blue-green infrastructure (BGI) in 10,000 cities in the European Union.

This will be achieved through the implementation of innovative systems utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies, including satellite and aerial imagery.

As a result, city administrators and residents will gain access to four informational products grouped into two computer systems. These tools will help identify key adaptive needs, develop BGI management strategies, and monitor the effectiveness of implemented actions.

The EUROPE system

The EUROPE system, based on satellite data, will identify areas with intensified environmental challenges in European cities and include two products:

• EU Cities Ranking of BGI – a free report published periodically from 2025 until the end of the project, assessing the state of BGI in at least 10,000 cities across the European Union.
• BGI SAT-MONITORING Report for city – a paid report offering detailed spatial analysis of environmental issues within a specific city, available from 2025.

The CITY system

The CITY system will operate using data obtained from aerial surveys and will function as a decision-support tool for implementing Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) at the city level.

• BGI AUDIT Report for city – identifying key intervention areas and proposing optimal nature-based solutions.
• BGI AIR-MONITORING Report for city – assessing the condition and effectiveness of implemented BGI solutions.

The first city selected for the development of a BGI reconstruction concept is Wrocław.

During the project, an informational and educational platform titled “Life in Cool City” will be developed to provide access to the project’s informational pr

Occupational structure in the lands of the Congress Kingdom of Poland in the 19th century

UMO-2025/57/N/HS4/01861 - PRELUDIUM

The occupational structure is one of the key measures of the economic activity of the population. Although it does not take into account important factors such as technical progress and labour productivity growth, its study allows for a better understanding of the dynamics and scale of transformations that took place in the economy. Reconstruction of the occupational structure in the 19th century will make it possible to include the Polish lands in the area of research on the process of industrialisation and its specificity in the core and peripheries of the European economy. In addition, the proper understanding of key determinants of 19th century industrialization, its success and failure factors, is good starting point for a proper comprehension of the phenomena resulting from the industrial and post-industrial economy, Digital Revolution or the economy of Industry 4.0. As a result, it creates the possibility to find a better perspective for the understanding of the challenges that the global economy has been facing during the 20th and 21st century.
The literature lacks an unambiguous assessment of whether the territory of the Congress Kingdom should be regarded as an area located entirely on the periphery of the industrial revolution or as a border region. In addition, the dual economic structures in the Kingdom of Poland, as a result of which areas with modern industry coexisted alongside lands dominated by traditional agriculture, make it difficult to make an unambiguous assessment of the effects of the industrialization on the Polish lands based on the available data. The issue of reconstructing the occupational structure in the lands of the Congress Kingdom was taken up by Polish economic historians in the second half of the 20th century, but as a rule it did not constitute the main subject of their research. As a result, most studies focus exclusively on a narrow geographical, social or economic area. Differences in calculations and methodologies, as well as missing data for regions in different periods, mean that results for different sectors and areas of the Kingdom may not be comparable.
The proposed research project aims to fill this knowledge gap: to reconstruct and study the evolution of the occupational structure in the lands of the Congress Kingdom between 1826 and 1897, including spatially in as detailed a resolution as possible. The period covered by the analysis extends since the establishment of regulations for the registration of births in church metrics until the first Russian census. The database on the occupational structure provided as a result of the research will allow a more detailed examination than ever before of the phenomenon of industrialisation of the Polish lands in the 19th century. This will allow verification of hypotheses formulated in the literature on the dynamics, causes and timing of industrialisation.
Based on the results obtained, hypotheses concerning differences in the occupational structure between individual regions and religious associations, as well as the degree of differentiation in terms of the number of occupations performed in relation to Western European countries, and whether industrialisation of the lands of the Congress Kingdom took place simultaneously in different regions will be verified. In addition, the role of new and old urban centres in the process of industrialisation, the impact of the proximity of industrial centres on the occupational structure of neighbouring areas, and the impact of the proximity of railways, rivers and the national border on the occupational structure of individual regions will be examined. The database created will also be able to be used for other research in the economic history of the Polish lands. A proper understanding of changes in the occupational structure of the Polish lands in the 19th century may prove very helpful in, for example, improving estimates of the GDP of the Polish lands in the analysed period as well as for research on labor market history and social inequalities. This will enable a better understanding
of the origins, process and consequences of the 19th-century economic transformation, both in macroeconomic and social terms.
In the process of reconstructing the occupational structure, data from metric birth books and baptismal registers will be used - accurate individual data containing information on occupations. Scans of 19th-century manuscripts will be converted into text files, from which, using a linguistic model, information will be extracted allowing for the identification of occupations carried out by persons included in the documents (parents of the child, godparents, witnesses), as well as characteristics allowing for the classification of a given person into a specific demographic and geographical group. The mapping of the occupational structure across the lands of the Congress Kingdom will be carried out using stratified random sampling. Geographical and social differences in occupational structure will be verified using statistical methods, while methods from spatial econometrics will be used to study the determinants of industrialization of Polish lands.

An agent-based integrated assessment of climate and social tipping points

UMO-2022/46/E/HS4/00023 - SONATA BIS

Recently, climate-economy models have intergated climate tipping points into the climate policy assessment. It has been shown that their inclusion increases the estimates of economic losses due to climate change. A climate tipping point is a critical value in the temperature or other environmental variable, after which it is crossed, the catastrophic event may occur. However, current models are still not well equipped to study multiple social tipping points. A social tipping point describes a critical number of adopters of a new technology, after which its further adoptions are driven by self-reinforcing positive feedback mechanisms. Such points can have synergic, complementary or antagonistic impacts on the carbon dioxide emissions, thus may slow down or accelerate climate tipping points. For instance, digitalization and electrification of transport, if adopted by a critical mass, would increase electricity use.

This would require massive investments in renewable energy to support the low carbon transition. However, investments in renewable energy will be mineral intensive. As a result, the process may be undermined by the scarcity of rare metals and minerals, unless a critical mass of rare metals embodied in consumer products is recycled. The net effect of these mechanisms has not been assessed quantitatively, which we will do in this project. Our goal is to identify the positive social tipping cascades so as to avoid negative tipping cascades in climate.

To this end, in this project, we will develop models for integrated assessment of climate change impacts using an agent-based modelling method. Agent-based models have been suggested as a new wave of climate change modelling. They offer a behavioural alternative to mainstream economic models. In particular, each aggregate equation in traditional economic models, e.g. describing capital accumulation or total consumer spending, is replaced by the network of interacting agents, namely: heterogeneous consumer, firms and investors. This allows for modelling diversity of behaviours, bounded rationality and social interactions. As a result, ABMs offer a better starting point for integrating social tipping points than traditional models. The project will results in novel agent based intergrated assessment models to study multiple social and climate tipping points.

Behavioral anomalies in non-market valuation – New solutions based onbehavioral welfare economics

UMO-2023/51/D/HS4/00598 - SONATA

Public goods, such as clean water in rivers and public safety, bring benefits to society, but providing public goods also generates costs. To figure out the appropriate amount of spending on their provision, it is essential to calculate the benefits they bring in monetary terms. The monetary benefits associated with public goods can be compared against the costs of their provision in benefit -cost analysis to assess which goods it pays off to provide —that is, which ones bring larger benefits than costs.

The challenge lies in calculating the monetary benefits of public goods. The benefits can be expressed by how much people value these goods. Economists approximate values of goods with the amount s that people are willing to pay for them. But public goods are not bought or sold in markets and so lack prices that could indicate their value. This makes the measurement of the benefits that people derive from public goods challenging. Economists have proposed several methods for assessing the value of goods that are not traded in markets.

One of the commonly used techniques is stated preference (SP) methods. SP methods rely on data collected from specially designed surveys, in which respondents are asked about their preferences toward public goods. The querying about the preferences always involves some monetary trade-offs (e.g., providing a good with specific characteristics at a given cost), which helps researchers calculate the monetary value (implicit price) of the goods. 

The key objective of the project is to propose new practical measures and tools for SP studies —guided by insights from behavioral welfare economics —to improve the validity of SP-based

value estimates in the face of anomalous behaviors. Behavioral welfare economics has put forth various ways to measure values that take into account that people might not always make rational decisions to maximize their utility. Surprisingly, SP studies have not used these insights to address issues with non-standard behaviors in SP surveys. Our goal is to apply the approaches grounded in behavioral welfare economics to SP research and examine how well they work in practice. We aim to study if incorporating these approaches can improve the validity of SP value estimates.

Non-Gaussian Structural Dynamic Factor Models in Macroeconomics: Identification Theory, Inference Algorithms, and Applications

UMO-2024/55/B/HS4/00110 - OPUS

This project develops a new methodology for structural dynamic factor models (SDFMs) without the restrictive assumption of Gaussian (normal) shocks. While traditional Gaussian SDFMs are widely used in macroeconomics to assess the impact of economic policies and shocks, they fail to capture key empirical features of real-world data.

We aim to build the theoretical foundations for non-Gaussian structural dynamic factor models (N-GSDFMs)—including a general identification theory and efficient Bayesian inference algorithms that scale to large datasets. The project will also provide automated tools for practitioners.

From a practical standpoint, the project will improve how we measure the effects of economic shocks via impulse response functions, including uncertainty bands—currently a major challenge in non-Gaussian models.

Finally, we will apply our framework to re-examine the influential claim by Angeletos et al. (2020) that a single demand-type shock explains most of GDP volatility, aiming to provide a more nuanced view based on richer models and data.

Perły Nauki II - Metody kształcenia, kapitał ludzki i sygnalizacja umiejętności w kontekście szkolnictwa wyższego

PN/02/0037/2023 - MNiSW

Preferences and incentives, and the effective development of the human capital:economic and neuro-psychological approach

2021/42/E/HS4/00305 - SONATA BIS

Education is recognized as one of the most important factors determining the pace of economic development.

The resources and quality of the workforce affect economic performance, the rate of technological progress, and the entiresociety’s functioning. Research on the influence of human capital on the economy is well documented both in thetheoretical and empirical literature, hence the growing need to understand the processes and mechanisms behind it.This project aims to study cognitive and neuropsychological factors influencing the mutual relationship betweenstudents’ preferences and competencies development.

This is a particularly important topic for two main reasons. First,it allows for the understanding of factors influencing the motivation of students towards the learning process and futurecareers. Second, motivation towards learning (that results from preferences) is the key factor for educational success.To shed light on this issue data set will be collected where competences would be assessed using state-of-the-artpsychometric techniques, and at the same time, preferences would be revealed with hypothetical choices method (Discrete Choice Experiment).

The novelty of this project also lies in discovering the neuropsychological andneuropsychological background of human capital formation.  Based on the theoretical and empirical literature review,the main hypotheses are as follows:  1. There is a statistically significant relationship between the results obtained bystudents and their preferences.  2. Preferences and thus the effectiveness of learning can be shaped by non-invasivebrain stimulation.  

To assess the relationship between preferences and competences both need to be measured withinone quantitative study. To measure preferences Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) will be applied. Utility functionparameters will be estimated using Random Parameter Logistic Models. To measure educational outputs(competences), we will use a state-of-the-art psychometric approach based on the IRT model. Both imputed individual-level parameters and IRT-scaled competencies will then be used to assess the mutual relationship of the preferencesand motivation factors with competences and educational outcomes. Besides, we will use well-established internationalbenchmarks by reporting results on the scale directly comparable to OECD’s PISA international scale. 

Domestic and foreign shocks and business cycles in small open economies

UMO-2022/46/E/HS4/00116 - SONATA BIS

It is well-known that business cycles are synchronized across economies, i.e. main macroeconomic variables (e.g. GDP, consumption, investments, inflation) comove in various countries. In the literature, spillovers of so-called shock from large (e.g. the United States) to small economies are indicated as driving forces of this comovement. The examples of such shocks are unexpected change in Fed's monetary policy, new technologies or turbulences originating in the financial sector. Recent years have seen a significant progress in identification methods of such shocks from
various data sources that in some cases go much beyond typical macroeconomic variables such as high frequency financial data. However, very little is still known about the relative
importance of these shocks for driving business cycles in small open economies. Furthermore, estimated theoretical models fail in explaining high correlation of macroeconomic variables
across countries.
Against this backdrop, the first goal of this research project is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of the main macroeconomic shocks identified using state-of-the-art methods on small open economies. Second, the project will compare the impact of domestic shocks and compare it to the foreign ones. In this respect it will consider both i) emerging and developed economies with flexible exchange rates and ii) advanced countries in the euro area. Third, this project will verify whether frontier theoretical macroeconomic models – which assume bounded rationality of agents – better reflect empirical findings concerning: i) cross-country correlations of macroeconomic variables as well as ii) shock spillovers.
As a result the project is expected to provide three types of outcomes:
1. empirical: creating a unique database of main shocks for the US and small open economies
(including emerging economies, advanced countries and in particular euro-area members) using
state-of-the-art techniques;
2. methodological: developing a structural macroeconomic frameworks with bounded
rationality accounting for a number of shocks that are key for economic fluctuations according
to empirical results;
3. positive: providing new empirical evidence on the effects and relative importance of domestic
and foreign shocks on driving business cycles in small open economies.

Impact of Globalization, financial development and economic structures on energy diversification: Implications for European Green Deal

UMO-2024/53/B/HS4/01399 - OPUS

Global energy markets have been significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine war and has exposed the risks faced by European nations that source their energy from Russia. This crisis points to the fact that Europe must move to reduce its reliance on Russian energy in order to meet the goals of the European Green Deal. The goal of the proposed project is to investigate and compare the energy diversification strategies of European countries through the lens of globalization, financial development, economic structure and European green deal. Therefore, through the analysis of these factors, we propose a course of action aimed at endeavoring a safer and more stable energy future for Europe. The specific research questions that guide this research include; first, what kind of policy frameworks exist across Europe to diversify their energy sources? Second, how does globalization, financial development, and economic structure affect energy diversification? Third, what is the relationship between energy diversification and environmental sustainability in the presence of other determinants like globalization, financial development, natural capital, structural changes and economic growth? 

This project is based on mixed methodology: qualitative method that will consist of literature, policy desk reviews; interviews with key policy and academic experts, secondary data sources whereby we will check interconnections and impact of independent variables on energy diversification and environmental sustainability in the European countries.

The European Green Deal is a package of strategic initiatives presented by the European Commission to achieve environmental objectives by 2050. Our work aims to respond to current energy security challenges while supporting the long-term objectives of environmental protection and climate change mitigation, thus paving the way for meaningful advancements in the development of a more secure, sustainable, and resilient energy future for Europe.