Projekty badawcze





Wyświetleń 31 do 40 (155 Razem)

Application of hybrid Gibbs processes to firm location forecast

UMO-2020/37/N/HS4/02061 - PRELUDIUM

Kierownik: Zabarina Kateryna, Opiekun: Cedro Monika
Początek: 2021-03-01, Koniec: 2023-02-28
Wartość projektu: 63 929,00 PLN

Application of hybrid Gibbs processes to firm location forecast

UMO-2020/37/N/HS4/02061 - PRELUDIUM

Importance of geo-location is obvious for businesses. Properly chosen location guarantees positive cash flows,easy access to resources and clients. Forecast of location for a new business plant is difficult, since a lot ofthings have to be taken into account.

As a base of such forecast, one should estimate a model explaining firmlocations. Already existing models and methods (Discrete Choice Modelling, count models etc.) useaggregated data, which do not seem to be appropriate for such problem, since they do not reflect spatialnature and distribution of data, do not consider spatial factors and existence of spatial dependence andheterogeneity.

These models either estimate a probability that a new point will appear in a certain region withspecific characteristics or explore how different factors impact on number of a new-born business plants in agiven region.Point pattern analysis seems to be more appropriate tool to investigate the determinants of firms’ locations andforecast location of new ones. There are couple of studies using various instruments to study businesslocations (Ripley’s K function and related, point process models), however do not try to predict a location of anew point.Aim of the project is development of method, which allows to predict exact location of a new point and takesinto account individual characteristics of point, its neighbours and spatial covariates.

Project can be consideredas a contribution to development of spatial micro-econometrics.Within the project, the following hypotheses (H) will be checked:H1: Spatial econometric models allow to model business location better, than a-spatial.H2: Hybrid Gibbs processes allow to capture not only individual features of points and their neighbours, butalso take into account existence of unobservable spatial effects within several radii.H3: Models estimated with hybrid Gibbs processes give more precise forecast of a new point than alreadyexisting methods.

Project aims not only to develop new method, but also to compare it with already existing ones and to give asuggestion of the possible use.


Trade and economic cooperation effects of Eurasian Economic Union

UMO-2021/41/N/HS4/00759 - PRELUDIUM

Kierownik: Gurshev Oleg, Opiekun: Gloeh Anna
Początek: 2022-03-01, Koniec: 2023-02-28
Wartość projektu: 36 081,00 PLN

Trade and economic cooperation effects of Eurasian Economic Union

UMO-2021/41/N/HS4/00759 - PRELUDIUM

The main goal of the project is to investigate international trade and economic cooperation effects of the Eurasian Economic Union (EUEA) in the context of trade partnership between China and the European Union (EU). Due to the increased efforts of China to facilitate international trade through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the study of the EUEA and its members has become an important topic of economic and political research. This is because a considerable number of important trade routes between the EU and China run through territories of the EUEA members, in particular Russia, and Belarus, the most notable of which is the Trans-Siberian corridor.


Economic ineqalities in Polish rural areas -analysis of the data on direct payments' beneficiariesin the period 2014-2019

BOB-IDUB-622-57/2021 - Nowe Idee POB V IDUB

Kierownik: Fałkowski Jan, Opiekun: Kaźmierczak Ewa
Początek: 2021-09-01, Koniec: 2023-02-28
Wartość projektu: 93 606,00 PLN

Economic ineqalities in Polish rural areas -analysis of the data on direct payments' beneficiariesin the period 2014-2019

BOB-IDUB-622-57/2021 - Nowe Idee POB V IDUB

The project has two objectives. The first is to create a publicly accessible database that would enable analyses devoted to changes in land distribution in rural areas in Poland in 2014-2019. The database will contain a number of measures describing land distribution at commune level. These measures will be based on individual data on beneficiaries of direct payments published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. The project will result in an online application allowing visualisation of the analysed statistics. Data will also be downloadable for own analysis. The second aim of the project is to carry out a study describing the changes in the distribution of land that took place in the period covered by the analysis and to indicate the relationship they may have had with changes in the voting preferences of rural residents. The first stage of the research will focus on indicating to what extent there is a progressive concentration of land and analysing to what extent this process is a universal phenomenon, i.e. occurring regardless of the region, initial agrarian structure or various socio-economic conditions. In the second stage, the main focus will be on the relationship between land distribution (and changes in it) and political support for particular parties. The period covered by the analysis allows us to trace this relationship for the elections that took place in 2014-2015 and 2018-2020.

 


Long-term care in Poland -analysis of the demand and supply of stationary forms of care

BOB-IDUB-622-61/2021 - Nowe Idee POB V IDUB

Początek: 2021-07-01, Koniec: 2023-02-28
Wartość projektu: 70 405,00 PLN

Long-term care in Poland -analysis of the demand and supply of stationary forms of care

BOB-IDUB-622-61/2021 - Nowe Idee POB V IDUB

One of the most important demographic processes in Poland is the ageing of the population. A higher proportion of older people means a higher number of people requiring care, which is most often provided by the family. At the same time, families are getting smaller and their members often live far away from each other. This poses a challenge for the development of forms of long-term care in the coming years. In order to better anticipate the development of care services and reliably estimate future public expenditure on long-term care, it is necessary to analyse the individual characteristics of beneficiaries receiving different forms of care. Available indicators on the use of care services are based on aggregated data, e.g. for counties. There is also little research on private care home residents. The aim of the project is to provide knowledge on the factors influencing differences in the use of public and private forms of long-term care. The analyses will help to identify how certain characteristics of residents such as their age, gender, health, level of disability or family situation may translate into differences in the use of different forms of long-term care. The project aims to collect individual data from 5,000 residents of public and private care facilities in Poland and to compare it with SHARE data on people receiving care at home.

 


Estimation of lockdowns impact on well-being of society with nove Bayesian methods and Google search queries data

BOB-IDUB-622-89/2021 - Nowe Idee POB III IDUB

Kierownik: Drachal Krzysztof, Opiekun: Kaźmierczak Ewa
Początek: 2021-07-20, Koniec: 2023-02-28
Wartość projektu: 95 862,00 PLN

Estimation of lockdowns impact on well-being of society with nove Bayesian methods and Google search queries data

BOB-IDUB-622-89/2021 - Nowe Idee POB III IDUB

The lockdowns introduced in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on societies: from an economic, psychological and health perspective. The aim of this project is to assess their impact on so-called social well-being, understood both from the perspective of mental health and a sense of economic security, etc.

This is a difficult task, because well-being is also influenced by other factors, changes occur dynamically and, in addition, the study cannot use a so-called control group. However, other studies show that in certain situations, selected phenomena can be approximated on the basis of data on queries directed to the Google search engine.

Moreover, the mathematical and econometric nuances associated with modelling such a problem can be solved using Bayesian methods, among others. In particular, the project will use the so-called Bayesian structural time series and Bayesian dynamic mixed models in a novel way. Indeed, these methods have only recently been used in the social sciences, but they perform well when short time series are analysed and when there are many variables with potentially significant effects on the explained variable


The role of home-based work for career prospects of men and women: an experimental study for Poland and the United Kingdom

BOB-IDUB-622-63/2021 - Nowe Idee POB V IDUB

Kierownik: Matysiak Anna, Opiekun: Wielgopolan Anna
Początek: 2021-07-01, Koniec: 2023-02-28
Wartość projektu: 120 897,00 PLN

The role of home-based work for career prospects of men and women: an experimental study for Poland and the United Kingdom

BOB-IDUB-622-63/2021 - Nowe Idee POB V IDUB

While 2020 can be considered the year of remote work, this form of employment is very likely to prevail and gain even more popularity in the coming years. It is easier than ever to stay connected in the era of technological advances and globalisation. Many agree that remote work offers a great level of flexibility, autonomy and potential for a better work-life balance.

From a practical point of view, it can also mean less timely and costly commuting for workers and lower running costs for the organisations. It is important though to point out that there are some disadvantages to it too. These include lack of workplace social interactions, blurred lines between work and personal life as well as potentially diminished career development opportunities. In order to provide more light on the impacts of remote work, the following study explores whether remote workers are perceived and judged in the same way as office -based workers when it come s to training and development opportunities, promotion decisions and competency evaluation.

The study also investigates whether there exists a gender - and parenthood - effect, namely whether men and women / fathers and mothers are judged in the same way. The investigation is conducted on individuals with managerial and supervisory responsibilities from the business sector in Poland and the UK, allowing for a valuable cross - country comparison.


Technology-specific innovation systems in Europe - a quantitative micro-level analysis

UMO-2019/33/B/HS4/02951 - OPUS

Początek: 2020-02-17, Koniec: 2022-12-16
Wartość projektu: 785 900,00 PLN

Technology-specific innovation systems in Europe - a quantitative micro-level analysis

UMO-2019/33/B/HS4/02951 - OPUS

The aim of the project is to assess the functioning of the technology-specific systems of innovation in European Economic Area economies by carefully analyzing the patenting and publishing patterns of firms and academia, as well as funding data of some public and private actors.
 
In this project we will offer a quantitative analysis of three functions of the technology-specific systems of innovations: “Knowledge development”, “Knowledge diffusion through networks”, and “Resources mobilization”. We will propose measures of the TSIS functions based on the patenting and publishing data, as well as the data on the public and private funding of startups. Then we will perform an econometric analysis on the dataset we will have created. The work will consist of four stages or work-packages. First we will determine the set of “leading technologies” that we will focus on: these will be the technological groups that have seen the fastest growth in patent applications in recent 20 years (we will use the PATSTAT database). We will also apply a text-mining software to the patents in each group to find keywords and language patterns associated with each technology.
Secondly, we will use these keywords and language patterns to verify how many scientific publications in the Web of Science database can be attributed to each technology. Thus we will obtain a large set of indicators measuring the amount of knowledge created for each technology in different EEA countries at different moments of time. We call this set of indicators the “map of knowledge” for each technology. This data will then be analyzed according to its dimensions (country, time, business vs. academic patentees) using a variety of statistical techniques.
The third work-package will develop our dataset further by calculating the measures of technology-level citation patterns, based on the analysis of backward citations of patents and publications attributed to each of the “leading technologies”. The outcome will be the assessment of the pace and breadth of technology diffusion; cross-country and cross-technology differences will also be analyzed.
In the fourth work-package we will focus on the “resource-mobilizing” function of the TSIS. To this end we will, again, apply a text-mining software this time to the data on start-ups from two sources: the EU’s “Eurostars” program, and the database of venture capital projects (most likely the Thomson VenturExpert database).
For each technology, each country and each point in time we will create a measure of technology funding. We will then be able to assess the similarity of the funding structures and technology-development countries in individual countries and European Economic Area as a whole.
The project is novel in several dimensions. To the best of our knowledge it is the first attempt to perform a quantitative and comparative analysis of technology-specific innovation systems in terms of their functions. Also, by applying of text-mining software to a big number of document from different sources, the project will generate a unique database of indicators on TSIS for a number of EEA countries


Application of regional price deflators in empirical analysis of regional wage determinants and in verification of the New Economic Geography theoretical models assumptions concerning price index

UMO-2016/23/B/HS4/02370 - OPUS

Początek: 2017-07-07, Koniec: 2022-10-16
Wartość projektu: 201 500,00 PLN

Application of regional price deflators in empirical analysis of regional wage determinants and in verification of the New Economic Geography theoretical models assumptions concerning price index

UMO-2016/23/B/HS4/02370 - OPUS

In this project we want to verify the impact of regional price indices on the results of regional wage determinants analyses.

In this sense we will take into account 2 main approaches present in the literature: market potential model based on the New Economic Geography (NEG) theoretical previsions and the wage curve proposed first by Blanchflower and Oswald (1990).

In the case of the former, the inclusion of regional price indices should allow for more precise estimation of market potential coefficient, as compared to the existing studies. In the case of the latter, the inclusion of regional price deflators should allow for verifying the hypothesis concerning possible overestimation of the relationship between regional wages and the local unemployment rate.

Finally, following Fingleton and Palombi (2013, 2016) we will verify which of the above approaches is more adequate in terms of explaining regional real wage differentials. We assume the wage curve approach to be more adequate. Second, we want to verify empirically one of the main assumptions present in the NEG models concerning the price index and develop a model that takes into account new empirical findings. Here, we focus on the supposition that the core regions should have a lower price index of manufacturing goods. We believe the above assumption is not correct. In order to verify the above, we will calculate regional price indices for manufacturing goods in the case of Poland.

Next, if our research hypotheses are correct (the one concerning the wage curve approach and the one concerning the higher price level of manufacturing products in core regions) we will develop a new theoretical model that would include both features within the NEG framework. The main reason behind the choice of the research topic is the lack of the studies that would include data related to regional price indices. As a result there exists a gap in the literature that can be, for the first time, at least partially filled due to the completion of proposed project.


Forecasting commodity prices using Bayesian symbolic regression

UMO-2018/31/B/HS4/02021 - OPUS

Kierownik: Drachal Krzysztof, Opiekun: Gloeh Anna
Początek: 2019-10-01, Koniec: 2022-09-30
Wartość projektu: 635 868,00 PLN

Forecasting commodity prices using Bayesian symbolic regression

UMO-2018/31/B/HS4/02021 - OPUS

The aim of this project is to develop a novel econometric tool. This has two major goals. On the practical level, the developed model would be applied to forecasting various commodities prices, as this is an important economic and financial issue.
On the theoretical level, the developed model would be a merge of so called “symbolic regression” with the Bayesian methods.
Up to the best of our knowledge, there has been no such an attempt . Therefore, the aim of the project is to develop a novel methodology and later apply it to the specific financial time-series. It is expected that the developed methodology would occur to be a well -working tool dealing with the problem of variable uncertainty (or even, more general, with model uncertainty).
In other words, it will be a method free from human bias, which can emerge when a researcher is not sure which variables should be used as explanatory ones in the econometric model, or even if he or she is not sure about the functional form of the model.
It is also expected that the developed method will perform better, in a sense of forecast accuracy, for various commodities prices than the already developed methods (like Bayesian Model Averaging, Frequentist Model Averaging, LASSO regression, etc.).


Calculator of services provided by urban trees

TANGO-IV-A/0043/2019-00 - OPUS

Kierownik: Szkop Zbigniew, Opiekun: Cichocka Agnieszka
Początek: 2021-07-01, Koniec: 2022-09-30
Wartość projektu: 72 187,00 PLN

Calculator of services provided by urban trees

TANGO-IV-A/0043/2019-00 - OPUS

The aim of the project is to define a roadmap for the development of technologies based on the results of the baseline project entitled "The importance of ecosystem services provided by trees in urban land planning and management" (2016/23/N/HS4/03674). This technology is a mobile application that will allow the user to independently assess the value of the services provided by trees growing in different cities and towns in Poland. It is true that there are tools that already allow this to some extent (e.g. i-TreeEco), but because their use is complicated and requires expertise in both tree ecology and economics, they are in fact used only by a small group of researchers in Poland. The creation of an easy-to-use mobile application could change this, making it a widely used tool by users such as environmental educators, officials who maintain urban greenery, NGO workers, and others wishing to raise environmental awareness among Polish city dwellers. 

 


Wyświetleń 31 do 40 (155 Razem)