Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

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Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 86

WP(33/2026)527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Autorzy: Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implemen…

WP527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implementation credibility). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 1,100 Polish urban residents, we examine how policy scenario credibility shapes preferences for air pollution mitigation reducing risks from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We contrast domain experts and artificial intelligence (AI) with no-source control as information sources on policy outcome projections. We find that epistemic and implementation credibility are strongly correlated; thus, we treat credibility as a single variable affecting preferences. Using a hybrid mixed logit (HMXL) model, we demonstrate that higher perceived credibility increases programme support, lowers cost sensitivity, and thus elevates willingness to pay (WTP) for the programme and morbidity risk reduction. We find no evidence that the information source influences preferences or scenario credibility.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.33.527
Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
air pollution artificial intelligence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease credibility discrete choice experiment information source

WP(25/2026)519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Autorzy: Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecol…

WP519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecological resilience, yet they are often assumed to conflict with societal preferences, potentially limiting public support for conservation and restoration. We examined whether forest characteristics associated with biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation are consistently valued by society across Europe. We combined a visual discrete choice experiment involving 11,622 respondents from twelve European countries with a travel cost model to evaluate whether stated societal preferences were reflected in observed recreational behaviour. We then integrated harmonized preference estimates with continental forest inventory and remote-sensing data to map the spatial distribution of societal values associated with forest ecosystem condition. Across all countries, respondents consistently preferred forests characterized by taller canopies, greater tree-species richness, heterogeneous age structures, and more deadwood. These preferences closely aligned with observed visitation behaviour despite substantial differences in geography, accessibility, and recreational traditions. Spatial analyses further showed that forests with greater structural complexity consistently exhibited higher societal value. Our findings demonstrate that biodiversity-oriented forest management and societal values largely converge across Europe, suggesting that many interventions promoting ecological resilience can simultaneously strengthen public support for forest conservation and restoration, providing a stronger foundation for adaptive, multifunctional forest governance under global environmental change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.25.519
Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
biodiversity conservation forest management structural complexity forest recreation ecosystem services discrete choice experiment travel cost method

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(15/2026)509. Capturing zero-price effects in stated choice surveys: implications for willingness-to-pay and welfare

Autorzy: Tjiong Jeff, Dekker Thijs, Hess Stephane, Giergiczny Marek, Ojeda-Cabral Manuel, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Stated choice surveys commonly used in public policy appraisal – such as in transport or environmental economics – often contrast a ‘free’ status quo alternative against a range of (policy) interventions which can be implement…

WP509. Capturing zero-price effects in stated choice surveys: implications for willingness-to-pay and welfare

Stated choice surveys commonly used in public policy appraisal – such as in transport or environmental economics – often contrast a ‘free’ status quo alternative against a range of (policy) interventions which can be implemented at a cost. Limited attention has, however, been paid to the fact that the ‘free’ nature of the status quo (SQ) alternative may make the SQ alternative overly attractive due to the zero-price (ZP) effect. The ZP effect is a well-established notion in behavioural economics explaining the phenomenon that individuals tend to over-react to free alternatives. We present an experimental design setup allowing the separation of the ZP effect from the SQ effect together with the identification of non-linear sensitivities to costs. Choices made by students between different mobile broadband packages are used for illustrational purposes. Our analysis shows that the ZP effect is significant and the observed preference to remain in the SQ is largely due to the ZP effect. In practice, this may lead to biased welfare estimates for public policy packages if the ZP effect is not explicitly accounted for. Moreover, we also show that misspecification of the functional form for cost can lead to significant bias in WTP estimates and the ZP and SQ effects.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.15.509
Tjiong Jeff, Dekker Thijs, Hess Stephane, Giergiczny Marek, Ojeda-Cabral Manuel, Czajkowski Mikołaj
zero-price effect stated choice experiments status quo bias willingness-to-pay welfare analysis discrete choice modelling non-linear cost sensitivity Box-Cox transformation mobile broadband

WP(4/2026)498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

Autorzy: Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuat…

WP498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuation double-bounded dichotomous choice and an open-ended follow-up, we elicit individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. In a randomized design, we varied the cost attribute across three cost range treatments and manipulated information disclosure and feedback to examine three behavioral phenomena: cost vector effects (whether the range of costs presented affects WTP), scope insensitivity (whether WTP scales appropriately with the magnitude of the risk reduction), and anchoring (whether initial cost cues affect subsequent responses). Our results show that mean VSL estimates can vary by up to ~25% between cost treatments. Furthermore, WTP responses exhibit partial scope insensitivity – larger risk reductions do not proportionally increase WTP – indicating a deviation from theoretical expectations. Importantly, we find no strong evidence of anchoring: neither revealing all attribute levels upfront, nor starting with extreme cost levels, nor providing feedback on quiz questions significantly affected respondents’ choices or WTP. Our findings underscore the need for careful survey design. Even if VSL distributions remain statistically similar across cost frames, substantial shifts in mean magnitudes could be consequential for policy. We call for standardized guidelines on cost attribute selection and survey protocols to mitigate bias, ensuring that stated preference methods yield reliable welfare estimates for health policy decisions.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.4.498
Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
value of statistical life (VSL) stated preference (SP) contingent valuation (CV) behavioral biases anchoring effect scope insensitivity discrete choice experiment (DCE) willingness to pay (WTP) mortality risk reduction cardiovascular diseases

WP(31/2025)494. Hybrid or Hands On? Students’ Economic Preferences over Study Design and Labor Market Payoffs

Autorzy: Zawadzki Wojciech, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Jędrzejewska Matylda, Żmijewska Maja, Ryłow Jakub, Gadowska-dos Santos Dominika, Grotkowska Gabriela, Różycka Agnieszka, Filip Arkadiusz, Gruszczynski Marcin, Kałamucka Agata, Kowalski Tadeusz, Kozioł Waldemar, Olender-Skorek Magdalena, Opolski Krzysztof, Saczuk Katarzyna, Szczurek Mateusz, Sztandar-Sztanderska Urszula, Wańczyk Kacper, Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zabarina Kateryna, Żoch Piotr
We study how university students trade off the design and demands of study against expected labor market returns. We conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) with students of the Economics Department at the University of Warsaw. Choice alternativ…

WP494. Hybrid or Hands On? Students’ Economic Preferences over Study Design and Labor Market Payoffs

We study how university students trade off the design and demands of study against expected labor market returns. We conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) with students of the Economics Department at the University of Warsaw. Choice alternatives varied the share of in person teaching, weekly class hours, weekly preparation time, language mix (Polish vs. English), net monthly study cost (tuition minus stipends), and expected net salary after graduation. The DCE was embedded in a broader survey measuring study experience, time use, work during studies, scheduling preferences, and perceptions of quality and reputation. The instrument and framings follow state of the art DCE guidance and are publicly documentable. Using multinomial logit and mixed logit models, we estimate compensating differentials students require to accept (i) more online teaching, (ii) more weekly effort (classes/prep), or (iii) English medium instruction in Polish language curricula. The results show large, precise utility gains from higher expected salary, disutility from higher weekly preparation time, and strong (non linear) preferences over delivery mode and language. We then simulate policy scenarios (e.g., introducing 50% online, adjusting effort) and quantify the cost equivalent or salary equivalent levers needed to maintain program attractiveness. We position our results in the international literature on DCEs in higher education and discuss external validity with respect to a large national DCE that emphasized earnings over prestige. We conclude with program design implications for universities worldwide navigating hybridization, workload calibration, and language policy in light of students’ revealed economic preferences.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.31.494
Zawadzki Wojciech, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Jędrzejewska Matylda, Żmijewska Maja, Ryłow Jakub, Gadowska-dos Santos Dominika, Grotkowska Gabriela, Różycka Agnieszka, Filip Arkadiusz, Gruszczynski Marcin, Kałamucka Agata, Kowalski Tadeusz, Kozioł Waldemar, Olender-Skorek Magdalena, Opolski Krzysztof, Saczuk Katarzyna, Szczurek Mateusz, Sztandar-Sztanderska Urszula, Wańczyk Kacper, Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zabarina Kateryna, Żoch Piotr
discrete choice experiment higher education hybrid/online vs. in-person language of instruction student workload willingness-to-pay

WP(17/2025)480. Career Penalties for Flexible Working: How Organizational Culture Shapes Managerial Decisions

Autorzy: Kasperska Agnieszka, Matysiak Anna, Cukrowska-Torzewska Ewa
This study explores how organizational factors influence managerial decision-making regarding the career advancement of employees working from home. Despite a large body of research on the new modes of working, a gap persists concerning the role of t…

WP480. Career Penalties for Flexible Working: How Organizational Culture Shapes Managerial Decisions

This study explores how organizational factors influence managerial decision-making regarding the career advancement of employees working from home. Despite a large body of research on the new modes of working, a gap persists concerning the role of the organizational context in shaping these dynamics. In this article, we investigate whether managers’ promotion and pay decisions depend on the employee's use of remote work and whether these decisions are moderated by the presence of the ideal worker norms (i.e. high work devotion and centrality) and family-friendly policies (childcare-related and flexible work options) in their work environments. We use data from a choice experiment, which included over 1,000 managers from the United Kingdom. The experiment was run in the second half of 2022, and therefore, this study provides post-pandemic evidence and represents the “new normal” settings. The findings indicate that employees who work fully remotely are less likely to be considered for promotion and a salary increase than on-site workers. This pattern is observed particularly in firms with more demanding organizational cultures, namely those with stronger ideal worker norms and/or fewer family-friendly policies. Importantly, both male and female remote workers experience career penalties, albeit in distinct ways, as both ideal worker norms and family-friendly policies appear important for men, whereas for women, it is primarily the availability of supportive policies that influences outcomes. The findings underscore the significant impact of organizational culture on managerial decision-making, with implications for both theory and practice.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.17.480
Kasperska Agnieszka, Matysiak Anna, Cukrowska-Torzewska Ewa
experiment gender promotion organizational culture work from home

WP(15/2025)478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting

Autorzy: Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena
Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent att…

WP478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting

Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent attention has shifted to climate change and reproductive rights. This study examines the relative importance of contextual constraints on childbearing intentions among young adults in Poland. Using a factorial survey (N = 1,337), we compare how employment stability, housing affordability, childcare availability, men’s domestic contributions, climate change, and abortion rights shape intentions     to have a first or second child. Results confirm the enduring salience of economic security for fertility intentions across gender and parenthood status. Reproductive autonomy is most influential for childless women and important for mothers and partnered men. Childcare and equitable domestic arrangements support women’s intentions but matter less for men. Climate concerns are less influential. Intentions of childless men appear less responsive overall.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.15.478
Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena
fertility intentions factorial survey experiment economic insecurity reproductive autonomy gender equality childcare availability climate change

WP(11/2025)474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White
Heritage authorities must decide which places to protect, but valuation studies usually examine a single named site. We develop a common way to describe buildings, historic sites and landscapes, and test it in a choice experiment with 1,613 Victorian…

WP474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments

Heritage authorities must decide which places to protect, but valuation studies usually examine a single named site. We develop a common way to describe buildings, historic sites and landscapes, and test it in a choice experiment with 1,613 Victorian respondents. The results show higher mean willingness to pay for nineteenth-century age and excellent condition in all three categories, while the value attached to distance differs across them. Images also affect stated values in the later survey designs, although many individual image comparisons remain uncertain. We show how the estimated characteristics combine in an illustrative courthouse profile. A shared set of characteristics makes comparisons possible, but it does not make the monetary values interchangeable or establish that they transfer to new places. The framework can help structure heritage appraisal while making those limits explicit.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.11.474
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White
cultural heritage historic preservation non-market valuation discrete choice experiment public preferences

WP(10/2025)473. Valuing theater performances through benefit transfer: Accuracy of transfers over space

Autorzy: Zawojska Ewa, Jusypenko Bartosz, Wiśniewska Aleksandra
Understanding the value of cultural goods such as performing arts is essential for designing welfare-maximizing cultural policies. However, since these goods often generate public externalities, market data alone cannot capture their full value. Whil…

WP473. Valuing theater performances through benefit transfer: Accuracy of transfers over space

Understanding the value of cultural goods such as performing arts is essential for designing welfare-maximizing cultural policies. However, since these goods often generate public externalities, market data alone cannot capture their full value. While primary non-market valuation studies offer robust insights, they are resource-intensive. Benefit transfer (BT)—using value estimates from existing studies to assess unstudied contexts—offers a cost-effective alternative. This study examines the accuracy of BT in cultural economics, focusing on marginal values of theater performances. Using data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in six Polish provinces, we perform inter-provincial transfers of marginal willingness-to-pay values for four types of theater performances. By comparing transferred values with primary estimates, we assess BT’s validity and reliability. To our knowledge, this is the first BT study in cultural economics using DCE-derived marginal values. Our findings suggest that BT accuracy in culture aligns with results from more established fields, supporting the use of DCE-based estimates in cultural policy evaluation.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.10.473
Zawojska Ewa, Jusypenko Bartosz, Wiśniewska Aleksandra
accuracy benefit transfer discrete choice experiment performing arts reliability validity
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