Working Papers
The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.
The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.
The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.
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WP(16/2025)479. Estimating causal effects of extended school closures on non-cognitive factors: evidence from TIMSS and PISA
This study investigates the causal impact of prolonged school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on non-cognitive predictors of mathematics achievement and the strength of their association with student performance. Drawing on data from TIMSS (201…
This study investigates the causal impact of prolonged school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on non-cognitive predictors of mathematics achievement and the strength of their association with student performance. Drawing on data from TIMSS (2015, 2019, 2023) and PISA (2022), we apply difference-in-differences (DiD) models across two research designs: successive cross-sections of 4th-grade cohorts and a pseudo-panel following a cohort from primary to secondary school. Our findings indicate that, although school closures did not significantly affect the level of students’ self-beliefs, they did reduce the strength of the association between negative attitudes and achievement—particularly among girls and in OECD countries. The results highlight the nuanced effects of distance learning on mathematics outcomes, contributing to the literature on the role of affective-motivational factors in education.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.16.479 Binkiewicz Marzena, Artur Pokropek Full textWP(15/2025)478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting
Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent att…
Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent attention has shifted to climate change and reproductive rights. This study examines the relative importance of contextual constraints on childbearing intentions among young adults in Poland. Using a factorial survey (N = 1,337), we compare how employment stability, housing affordability, childcare availability, men’s domestic contributions, climate change, and abortion rights shape intentions to have a first or second child. Results confirm the enduring salience of economic security for fertility intentions across gender and parenthood status. Reproductive autonomy is most influential for childless women and important for mothers and partnered men. Childcare and equitable domestic arrangements support women’s intentions but matter less for men. Climate concerns are less influential. Intentions of childless men appear less responsive overall.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.15.478 Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena Full textWP(14/2025)477. Can Artificial Intelligence Trade the Stock Market?
The paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in stock market trading, focusing on two algorithms: Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and compares them with Buy and Hold benchmark. It evaluates these…
The paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in stock market trading, focusing on two algorithms: Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and compares them with Buy and Hold benchmark. It evaluates these algorithms across three currency pairs, the S&P 500 index and Bitcoin, on the daily data in the period of 2019-2023. The results demonstrate DRL's effectiveness in trading and its ability to manage risk by strategically avoiding trades in unfavorable conditions, providing a substantial edge over classical approaches, based on supervised learning in terms of risk-adjusted returns.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.14.477 Jędrzej Maskiewicz, Sakowski Paweł Full textWP(13/2025)476. Automation, the changing task content of jobs, and marital plans in Czechia
As labour-replacing technologies, such as industrial robots and AI-driven automats, alter the structure of labour demand, the task content of occupations has emerged as an increasingly important indicator of socioeconomic position. This study explore…
As labour-replacing technologies, such as industrial robots and AI-driven automats, alter the structure of labour demand, the task content of occupations has emerged as an increasingly important indicator of socioeconomic position. This study explores how exposure to job automation influences short-term marital intentions, using data from 1,345 respondents in the Czech Household Panel Survey (2015–2019) and occupational measures derived from the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) Database. Our findings reveal a gendered pattern: men employed in highly routine-intensive occupations—indicative of greater vulnerability to automation—are more likely to report no plans to marry. Conversely, women in similar jobs are more likely to express positive marital intentions. These results highlight how technological change not only alters labour market outcomes but also shapes demographic behaviours through the lens of gender norms. The study contributes to broader debates on the interplay between socioeconomic disadvantage and family formation, suggesting that automation may be contributing to a growing group of ‘non-marriageable’ men. As technological change continues to transform the labour markets, especially with the rise of artificial intelligence, the number of individuals at risk of both economic and relational marginalization may further expand.
WP(12/2025)475. The Short-Term Fertility Impact of Abortion Law Restrictions: A Research Note
We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 9…
We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 97% had been conducted on this ground. Using vital statistics and interrupted time series analysis, we find a significant and immediate decline in births of around 6.6%. The fertility response was strongest among younger women and first-time mothers, suggesting heightened sensitivity to the increased risks of pregnancy. Contrary to expectations, highly educated women did not significantly adjust fertility, likely due to greater access to abortion services abroad. Our findings demonstrate that abortion bans may lower fertility when they substantially increase the perceived costs and risks of childbearing, particularly in societies with widespread contraceptive use. These results provide insights relevant to current debates in the United States, where overturning of Roe v. Wade may also reshape fertility patterns.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.12.475 Matysiak Anna, van der Velde Lucas Augusto Full textWP(11/2025)474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments
This pioneering study employs stated preference methods, specifically discrete choice experiments, to evaluate public preferences for the protection of diverse cultural heritage assets in Victoria, Australia. By analyzing responses to a series of hyp…
This pioneering study employs stated preference methods, specifically discrete choice experiments, to evaluate public preferences for the protection of diverse cultural heritage assets in Victoria, Australia. By analyzing responses to a series of hypothetical policy scenarios, we uncover the economic values the public assigns to various heritage attributes, including condition, accessibility, and protection measures. Our findings emphasize the importance of both use and non-use values in shaping willingness to pay for heritage conservation. These insights are critical for developing more effective, community-aligned heritage policies that reflect the public's valuation of cultural heritage. This research marks a significant advancement in the application of discrete choice experiments for general heritage valuation, offering a robust framework for future studies and policy development in cultural heritage preservation.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.11.474 Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White Full textWP(10/2025)473. Valuing theater performances through benefit transfer: Accuracy of transfers over space
Understanding the value of cultural goods such as performing arts is essential for designing welfare-maximizing cultural policies. However, since these goods often generate public externalities, market data alone cannot capture their full value. Whil…
Understanding the value of cultural goods such as performing arts is essential for designing welfare-maximizing cultural policies. However, since these goods often generate public externalities, market data alone cannot capture their full value. While primary non-market valuation studies offer robust insights, they are resource-intensive. Benefit transfer (BT)—using value estimates from existing studies to assess unstudied contexts—offers a cost-effective alternative. This study examines the accuracy of BT in cultural economics, focusing on marginal values of theater performances. Using data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in six Polish provinces, we perform inter-provincial transfers of marginal willingness-to-pay values for four types of theater performances. By comparing transferred values with primary estimates, we assess BT’s validity and reliability. To our knowledge, this is the first BT study in cultural economics using DCE-derived marginal values. Our findings suggest that BT accuracy in culture aligns with results from more established fields, supporting the use of DCE-based estimates in cultural policy evaluation.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.10.473 Zawojska Ewa, Jusypenko Bartosz, Wiśniewska Aleksandra Full textWP(9/2025)472. The End of an Era. The Vanishing Negative Effect of Women’s Employment on Fertility
This paper addresses whether women’s employment in the 21st century remains a barrier to family formation, as it was in the 1980s and 1990s, or—similar to men’s—it has become a prerequisite for childbearing. We address this qu…
This paper addresses whether women’s employment in the 21st century remains a barrier to family formation, as it was in the 1980s and 1990s, or—similar to men’s—it has become a prerequisite for childbearing. We address this question through a systematic quantitative review (meta-analysis) of empirical studies conducted in Europe, North America and Australia. We selected 94 studies published between 1990-2023 (N=572 effect sizes). Our analysis uncovers a fundamental shift in the relationship between women's employment and fertility. What was once a strongly negative association has become statistically insignificant in the 2000s and 2010s—and even turned positive in the Nordic countries and parts of Western Europe (France, Belgium, and the Netherlands). This shift is evident both among childless women and mothers and has occurred across all analyzed country clusters, except in the German/Southern European group, where the relationship has remained negative. These findings challenge longstanding assumptions about work-family trade-offs and suggest a reconfiguration of the economic and social conditions underpinning fertility decisions in contemporary high-income societies. The paper calls for a reconceptualization of the employment-fertility relationship and development of a new theoretical framework that better captures these evolving dynamics in contemporary high-income societies.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.9.472 Matysiak Anna, Daniele Vignoli Full textWP(8/2025)471. Monetary-fiscal interactions during large-scale asset purchase programs
This paper examines the effects of asset purchase programs (APPs) that were implemented in a number of countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in concert with large fiscal stimulus packages. We identify APP shocks for 14 advanced and emerging market e…
This paper examines the effects of asset purchase programs (APPs) that were implemented in a number of countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in concert with large fiscal stimulus packages. We identify APP shocks for 14 advanced and emerging market economies using high-frequency identification techniques. We next estimate panel local projections, finding that APPs tend to stimulate output, but decrease prices. By using a Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, we demonstrate that these responses significantly depend on the magnitude of the simultaneously applied fiscal stimulus. Remarkably, higher government purchases during that period crowded in private consumption and had a large effect on inflation. We show that these empirical findings, some of which are inconsistent with a standard New Keynesian framework, can be rationalized in a simple general equilibrium model with segmented asset markets and fiscal dominance.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.8.471 Marcin Kolasa, Małgorzata Walerych, Wesołowski Grzegorz Full textWP(7/2025)470. The Impact of Railway on the Regional Economic Development and Social Mobility in the Congress Kingdom of Poland
We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experien…
We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experienced significantly higher population growth. The economic effects of the connection to the railway network increased over time. State-funded military railway lines generated a smaller impact than private-owned lines. We also study the impact of the railway connection on social mobility proxied through a number of notable people born in a given city. However, we do not identify any robust impact.
WP(6/2025)469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle
This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We fi…
This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We find that key macroeconomic shocks originating in the United States contribute significantly to business cycle synchronization between the US and other economies. These shocks also account for a substantial part of output fluctuations in these economies. Considering individual shock contributions, we document that technology and monetary policy innovations are of the highest relevance.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.6.469 WNE_WP469.pdf Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev Full textWP(5/2025)468. International spillovers of fiscal news shocks
This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the S…
This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Employing the local projection method, we find that anticipated increases in U.S. government spending are expansionary domestically, leading to improved sentiment and enhanced financial conditions. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar appreciates, and the U.S. trade balance deteriorates when future fiscal expansion is expected. In the international context, we apply panel local projection models across a broad set of countries and show that positive sentiment and improved financial conditions driven by U.S. fiscal news spill over, stimulating demand and output growth in other economies. However, we find no significant effect of currency depreciation on net exports in a broad sample as rising domestic demand tends to boost imports. In turn, in a subsample of countries with high trade exposure to the U.S., the trade channel becomes significant, while financial channel diminishes in importance. At the same time, sentiment channel appears to play a significant role in all subsamples. Finally, we find that positive fiscal news shocks have strong stimulating effects (both domestic and international) during US recessions but not in expansions.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.5.468 WNE_WP468.pdf Turgut Mehmet Burak, Wesołowski Grzegorz Full textWP(4/2025)467. Disruptive innovation: Incumbent’s response to innovation threat
The theory of disruptive innovation has gained significant interest from the academic and business communities, investigating the reasons for inadequate or delayed responses of incumbents to innovation which challenges their established markets. Inad…
The theory of disruptive innovation has gained significant interest from the academic and business communities, investigating the reasons for inadequate or delayed responses of incumbents to innovation which challenges their established markets. Inadequate responses were explained by the concept of innovator’s dilemma, which postulates how incumbents tend to satisfy their consumers on the established markets, while overlooking opportunities with other consumers. However, the optimal incumbents’ response to disruptive innovation in the normative sense has not been researched. We investigate the choice of the payoff-maximizing strategy in response to the observed market disruption as a choice between different management approaches. Our study shows the importance of the speed of innovation adoption for the choice of the optimal response to innovation. We also show that the response can be delayed in some cases, reflecting the exploitation-exploration dilemma. This new insight complements the reasons of delayed response to disruptive innovation threats.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.4.467 Marcin Penconek, Pagliarani Stefano Full textWP(3/2025)466. The Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Interwar Poland: Detailed Historical National Accounts
We provide the first estimate of the Polish national, regional and sectoral GDP in the interwar period. We find that the Polish economy's performance in the interwar period was much better than it was assumed before. In the years 1924 – 193…
We provide the first estimate of the Polish national, regional and sectoral GDP in the interwar period. We find that the Polish economy's performance in the interwar period was much better than it was assumed before. In the years 1924 – 1938, the real GDP per capita increased by almost 40% or by 2.3% annually. As economic growth was stronger in the poorer regions significant regional convergence was achieved. Our results challenge the dominant narrative about the weak performance of the Polish economy in the interwar years.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.3.466 Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński Full textWP(2/2025)465. Agriculture in interwar Poland: development in a turbulent time
We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased …
We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased during the investigated period. Significant regional convergence, both in the case of prices and value added occurred. In the years 1924 -38 value added increased by 5.35% annually, resulting 4.01% per capita growth rate. However, the yields per hectare grew less than in a majority of other European economies. While less developed eastern regions caught up with more economically advanced western Poland, the leading west lost compared to European peers. Therefore, our assessment of the development of agriculture in Poland in that period remains mixed.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.2.465 Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński Full textWP(1/2025)464. Industrial robots and workers’ well-being in Europe
In the 21st century, advancements in technologies such as industrial robots have raised concerns about their impact on employment and wages, prompting extensive research. However, their effects on workers’ subjective well-being remain underexpl…
In the 21st century, advancements in technologies such as industrial robots have raised concerns about their impact on employment and wages, prompting extensive research. However, their effects on workers’ subjective well-being remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap ¬by examining whether workers experience a decline in well-being due to a loss of agency or maintain it by leveraging human skills to adapt to automation. Using data from the International Federation of Robotics, Eurostat, and the European Social Survey (2002–2018), we link robot density at the country-industry-year level to workers’ life satisfaction, happiness, job influence, and health. Employing an instrumental variables approach, we find that robot adoption negatively affects medium-educated workers’ well-being, particularly its eudaimonic dimension, supporting the decreasing agency thesis. In contrast, low- and highly educated workers experience positive effects. These impacts are more pronounced among women and weaker in countries with robust compensatory social policies.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.1.464 WNE_WP464.pdf Bogusz Honorata, Daniela Bellani Full text