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Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej prawie 400 prac.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: d3B-M^x]kzu7.&tQ9YO'=gTs{RC]#[\}1s3M`NMk[*|Dl@ybEzGM5i*C+ (dwa pliki: (1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz (2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX).  Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.


Wyświetleń 1 do 5 (5 Razem)

WP(5/2024)441. How stable and predictable are welfare estimates using recreation demand models?

Autorzy: Zawojska Ewa, Patrick Lloyd-Smith
Economic analysis of environmental policy projects typically use pre-existing welfare estimates that are then transferred over time to the policy relevant periods. Understanding how stable and predictable these welfare estimates are over time is impo…

Economic analysis of environmental policy projects typically use pre-existing welfare estimates that are then transferred over time to the policy relevant periods. Understanding how stable and predictable these welfare estimates are over time is important for applying these estimates in policy. Yet, revealed preference models of recreation demand have received few temporal stability assessments compared to other non-market valuation methods. We use a large administrative dataset on campground reservations covering ten years to study temporal stability and predictability of recreation demand welfare estimates of lake water quality changes. Based on single-year models, our findings suggest welfare estimates are temporally stable across years in around 50% of the comparisons. Using an event study design, we find evidence that welfare estimates are stable within a year, that is, for weeks after a change in water quality. Our findings further reveal that having two years of data for predicting welfare estimates in subsequent years improves the prediction accuracy by 22% relative to using a single year of data, but further improvements in the prediction accuracy are modest when including additional years of data. Predictions of welfare estimates are not necessarily improved when using data closer in time to the prediction year. We discuss the implications of our results for using revealed preference studies in policy analysis.


Zawojska Ewa Patrick Lloyd-Smith
Artykuł

WP(4/2024)440. Welfare and economic implications of universal child benefits

Autorzy: Kolasa Aleksandra,
Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effe…

Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effects. However, given their large-scale implementation, such programs can have sizable general equilibrium effects. The aim of this paper is to study the long-run implications of universal child benefits within a theoretical framework that can capture the complexities of household decisions regarding consumption, labor participation, and the timing of children. To this end, I develop an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic earnings risk, infertility shocks, and endogenous temporal fertility. According to the model simulations, universal child benefits lead to a reduction in the spacing between children and, on average, lower maternal age at childbirth for all births. This, in turn, alleviates some of the negative aggregate effects typically associated with redistributive policies, but has a detrimental impact on the average quality of children. Finally, universal child benefits increase ex-ante welfare by 0.42% of lifetime adult consumption, significantly outperforming broad-based transfer policies not tied to the number of children.


Kolasa Aleksandra
Artykuł

WP(3/2024)439. Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting

Autorzy: Ślepaczuk Robert, Bartosz Bieganowski
This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming to improve investment strategy performance. It specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation…

This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming to improve investment strategy performance. It specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling on risk-adjusted returns, using the Sharpe and Information Ratios. The study focuses on the S&P 500 index, EUR/USD, and BTC/USD as the traded assets from January 1, 2010, to April 30, 2022. Findings indicate that supervised autoencoders, with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size, significantly boost strategy effectiveness. However, excessive noise and large bottleneck sizes can impair performance, highlighting the importance of precise parameter tuning. This paper also presents a derivation of a novel optimization metric that can be used with triple barrier labeling. The results of this study have substantial policy implications, suggesting that financial institutions and regulators could leverage techniques presented to enhance market stability and investor protection, while also encouraging more informed and strategic investment approaches in various financial sectors.


Ślepaczuk Robert Bartosz Bieganowski
Artykuł

WP(2/2024)438. Two Sides of a Coin: the Relationship Between Work Autonomy and Childbearing

Autorzy: Osiewalska Beata, Matysiak Anna,
This paper investigates the under-researched role of the three types of work autonomy – control over how, when and where to work – for both the entry into parenthood and the transition to a second child across different social strata in t…

This paper investigates the under-researched role of the three types of work autonomy – control over how, when and where to work – for both the entry into parenthood and the transition to a second child across different social strata in the United Kingdom. Over the past three decades, employees have gained increased work autonomy, a trend expected to persist with technological advancements. Work autonomy substantially affects the combination of paid work and family life. But its multifaceted impact on workers’ fertility behavior, especially across different educational levels, has remained unclear. The study employs a sample of partnered women and men from UKHLS 2009-2019 data. Event-history models are estimated. We find no relationship between work autonomy and fertility behavior for men. Work autonomy is only weakly related to the childbearing behavior of highly-educated women, though mothers with a university degree who have control over their work time are more likely to have a second child. For lower-educated women work autonomy is often negatively related to childbearing. The study highlights the intricate link between work autonomy and fertility and emphasizes important social stratification in the impact of autonomy on individuals. Further research is needed to unravel the observed duality, i.e., understanding the challenges posed by work autonomy for fertility, especially among the lower-educated.


Osiewalska Beata Matysiak Anna
Artykuł

WP(1/2024)437. Does it matter if the Fed goes conventional or unconventional?

Autorzy: Wesołowski Grzegorz, Marcin Kolasa
We investigate the domestic and international consequences of three types of Fed monetary policy instruments: conventional interest rate (IR), forward guidance (FG) and large scale asset purchases (LSAP). We document empirically that they can be seen…

We investigate the domestic and international consequences of three types of Fed monetary policy instruments: conventional interest rate (IR), forward guidance (FG) and large scale asset purchases (LSAP). We document empirically that they can be seen as close substitutes when used to meet macroeconomic stabilization objectives in the US, but have markedly different spillovers to other countries. This is because each of the three monetary policy instruments transmits differently to asset prices and exchange rates of small open economies. The LSAP by the Fed lowers the term premia both in the US and in other countries, and results in bigger exchange rate adjustments compared to conventional policy. Importantly for international spillovers, LSAP is typically associated with a more accommodative reaction of other countries' monetary authorities, especially in emerging market economies. We demonstrate how these findings can be rationalized within a stylized dynamic theoretical framework featuring a simple form of international bond market segmentation.


Wesołowski Grzegorz Marcin Kolasa
Artykuł