Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: y~WPi$3Mk/odHmEs8?[nKfL6vXw]#[qnJ8Sou=MzUW8*9bxHQfTL-+!Id

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 522

WP(26/2026)520. An Eye for an Eye – The Study of Negative Reciprocity. Evidence From a Game Show

Autorzy: Starzykowska Natalia
The proposed research is an attempt to analyse the tendency to take a revenge revealed by the participants in the television program "Ten to One" and its relationship with gender, education, and demographic variables of a player. Choices ma…

WP520. An Eye for an Eye – The Study of Negative Reciprocity. Evidence From a Game Show

The proposed research is an attempt to analyse the tendency to take a revenge revealed by the participants in the television program "Ten to One" and its relationship with gender, education, and demographic variables of a player. Choices made by participants consist of indication of a participant who will answer the next question. Since this reduces the ones probability of winning the episode, the feedback can be considered as a negative reciprocity or simply: revenge.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.26.520
Starzykowska Natalia
gender discrimination negative reciprocity reciprocity

WP(25/2026)519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Autorzy: Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecol…

WP519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecological resilience, yet they are often assumed to conflict with societal preferences, potentially limiting public support for conservation and restoration. We examined whether forest characteristics associated with biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation are consistently valued by society across Europe. We combined a visual discrete choice experiment involving 11,622 respondents from twelve European countries with a travel cost model to evaluate whether stated societal preferences were reflected in observed recreational behaviour. We then integrated harmonized preference estimates with continental forest inventory and remote-sensing data to map the spatial distribution of societal values associated with forest ecosystem condition. Across all countries, respondents consistently preferred forests characterized by taller canopies, greater tree-species richness, heterogeneous age structures, and more deadwood. These preferences closely aligned with observed visitation behaviour despite substantial differences in geography, accessibility, and recreational traditions. Spatial analyses further showed that forests with greater structural complexity consistently exhibited higher societal value. Our findings demonstrate that biodiversity-oriented forest management and societal values largely converge across Europe, suggesting that many interventions promoting ecological resilience can simultaneously strengthen public support for forest conservation and restoration, providing a stronger foundation for adaptive, multifunctional forest governance under global environmental change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.25.519
Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
biodiversity conservation forest management structural complexity forest recreation ecosystem services discrete choice experiment travel cost method

WP(24/2026)518. The impact of public transport accessibility on the Polish labour market – an econometric approach

Autorzy: Pakier Grzegorz, Zabarina Kateryna
This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the impact of transport accessibility on the registered unemployment rate. It utilises a transport accessibility index that was previously developed for municipalities in Poland. Analysis …

WP518. The impact of public transport accessibility on the Polish labour market – an econometric approach

This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the impact of transport accessibility on the registered unemployment rate. It utilises a transport accessibility index that was previously developed for municipalities in Poland. Analysis of three econometric models revealed that transport accessibility has a significant negative impact on the unemployment rate, which varies across the regions studied. The model using the average transport accessibility of municipalities within a given county showed a stronger relationship with the unemployment rate. This suggests that accessibility at the county level is more important than local accessibility. Furthermore, it was found that the type of municipality had no impact on the strength or direction of the examined relationship. The research confirms that public transport availability significantly influences unemployment levels in Poland, with considerable spatial variation in this relationship. The results emphasise the importance of considering the regional context of transport accessibility when devising anti-unemployment policies.


Pakier Grzegorz, Zabarina Kateryna
transport accessibility unemployment rate geographically weighted regression transport exclusion spatial mismatch

WP(23/2026)517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Autorzy: Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated…

WP517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.23.517
Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
migration intentions migration behavior migration decision-making intention-behavior gap social media analysis Twitter data geolocated data linguistic cues migration prediction human mobility Poland

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(21/2026)515. Beyond Weeks Closed: Reassessing Pandemic Educational Disruption with TIMSS 2003–2023

Autorzy: Binkiewicz Marzena, Pokropek Artur
Using six TIMSS cycles (2003–2023), UNESCO school-closure data, and World Bank GDP indicators, we estimate deviation-from-trend and continuous-treatment Difference-in-Differences models for mathematics achievement, liking learning mathematics, …

WP515. Beyond Weeks Closed: Reassessing Pandemic Educational Disruption with TIMSS 2003–2023

Using six TIMSS cycles (2003–2023), UNESCO school-closure data, and World Bank GDP indicators, we estimate deviation-from-trend and continuous-treatment Difference-in-Differences models for mathematics achievement, liking learning mathematics, and confidence in mathematics. Mathematics achievement declined substantially relative to pre-pandemic trends, but closure duration did not consistently explain cross-national variation in achievement losses. Unexpectedly, longer closures were associated with slightly higher liking learning mathematics, particularly among Grade 4 students in higher-GDP countries, while confidence in mathematics remained largely unchanged. These findings suggest a decoupling of cognitive and affective outcomes during the pandemic and indicate that school-closure duration alone is an insufficient measure of educational harm. Comparative evaluations of pandemic education policies should therefore incorporate indicators of instructional continuity, remote-learning quality, and recovery efforts alongside formal school-closure measures.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.21.515
Binkiewicz Marzena, Pokropek Artur
Mathematics achievement non-cognitive factors distance learning school closures TIMSS math anxiety self-efficacy

WP(20/2026)514. Hedging Auction Volatility with Gap Call Options

Autorzy: Mbara Gilbert
We investigate the feasibility of hedging commodity price risk using gap call options within an auction-based market devoid of traditional derivatives. Using a novel, high-frequency dataset from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), we model spot price …

WP514. Hedging Auction Volatility with Gap Call Options

We investigate the feasibility of hedging commodity price risk using gap call options within an auction-based market devoid of traditional derivatives. Using a novel, high-frequency dataset from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), we model spot price dynamics by deriving a Geometric Brownian Motion process from the independent private values paradigm. The estimated model captures the unique microstructure of the NCE, where discrete weekly auctions generate prices characterized by extreme volatility (146.5% annualized). We utilize Monte Carlo simulation to price and evaluate the performance of gap call options for buyers seeking protection against catastrophic price spikes. Our results demonstrate that gap options – characterized by a trigger price higher than the strike – provide superior risk-adjusted returns compared to standard European calls. Our study offers a practical framework for developing tailored risk management instruments in emerging commodity exchanges, and provides empirical evidence for the viability of gap options as a cost-effective hedging tool in high-volatility, institutionally constrained markets.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.20.514
Mbara Gilbert
risk management hedging commodity price risk gap options Nairobi Coffee Exchange geometric Brownian motion Monte Carlo simulation

WP(19/2026)513. Price Discovery in Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange

Autorzy: Mbara Gilbert
We investigate the dynamics of price discovery between physical spot and financial futures markets for green coffee, a commodity uniquely characterized by the geographical and informational separation of its producers from global financial centers. U…

WP513. Price Discovery in Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange

We investigate the dynamics of price discovery between physical spot and financial futures markets for green coffee, a commodity uniquely characterized by the geographical and informational separation of its producers from global financial centers. Using dis-aggregated weekly prices from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) auction and corresponding International Coffee Exchange (ICE) futures, we estimate a vector error correction model to quantify the transmission of information. Our findings reveal that price discovery predominantly occurs in the physical spot market, which accounts for approximately 83% and 88% of the information and component shares, respectively. These results challenge the conventional view that futures markets are the primary locus of price formation for homogeneous commodities and highlight the critical role of local supply-demand fundamentals in a major producing region. The analysis further uncovers heterogeneity in price discovery contributions across different coffee grades, providing novel insights into the micro-structure of agricultural commodity markets.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.19.513
Mbara Gilbert
price discovery information shares cointegration coffee futures Nairobi Coffee Exchange commodity markets

WP(18/2026)512. Painting Price: A Machine Learning Approach to Art Valuation. Proof of Concept and Market Structure Diagnosis

Autorzy: Okhrimenko Kostiantyn
This paper investigates the feasibility of predicting art prices using machine learning methods applied to a dataset of 20,905 paintings and drawings scraped from the Artsper online marketplace. We test tree-based ensemble models (Decision Tree, Rand…

WP512. Painting Price: A Machine Learning Approach to Art Valuation. Proof of Concept and Market Structure Diagnosis

This paper investigates the feasibility of predicting art prices using machine learning methods applied to a dataset of 20,905 paintings and drawings scraped from the Artsper online marketplace. We test tree-based ensemble models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGboost) and deep learning architectures (MLP, CNN, Fusion) on both tabular metadata and hand-crafted image features. Results consistently show poor predictive performance across all model types and feature sets. We argue that this outcome is not a methodological failure but a substantive finding: it constitutes a diagnosis of the market structure of contemporary art. Drawing on hedonic pricing theory (Rosen 1974), the sociology of cultural fields (Bourdieu 1993), and the economics of valuation (Velthuis 2005; Beckert and Rössel 2013), we propose a three-layer model of art price determinants: physical attributes (observable and partially captured by models), visual-aesthetic features (observable but poorly quantifiable), and narrative-reputational capital (largely unobservable in cross-sectional platform data).


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.18.512
Okhrimenko Kostiantyn
art market machine learning hedonic pricing art valuation cultural economics XGboost CNN

WP(17/2026)511. When Politics Enters the Family: Electoral Outcomes and Fertility in the United Kingdom

Autorzy: Baszczak Łukasz, Weychert Ewa
This paper examines the relationship between political outcomes and fertility behavior by linking electoral results with individual-level fertility outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing and the narrative decision-making framework (Vignoli et al., 2…

WP511. When Politics Enters the Family: Electoral Outcomes and Fertility in the United Kingdom

This paper examines the relationship between political outcomes and fertility behavior by linking electoral results with individual-level fertility outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing and the narrative decision-making framework (Vignoli et al., 2020; Johnson, Bilovich, & Tuckett, 2023) and the role of political polarization in fertility outcomes (Dahl et al. 2022) it considers how alignment between one’s political preferences and the actual party in power shapes fertility behaviour. Specifically, the study tests whether this alignment increases the probability of a first birth using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) over the period 1991–2020. We derive the month of conception from respondents’ birth histories and combine this information with measures of their political preferences (extrapolated to account for every month in the studied period). The results of a complementary log-log model indicate that the probability of conception is higher when an individual’s preferred party is in government.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.17.511
Baszczak Łukasz, Weychert Ewa
fertility uncertainty narrative decision theory voting behavior United Kingdom