Certyfikat jakości 
kształcenia dla WNE

EBCL
WNE Centrum
Egzaminacyjnym EBC*L 

WP(19)85. Polarization of household saving in Poland during financial crisis 2007-2010

Abstrakt

In this paper we analyse the changing structure of Polish households with regard to the household saving rates in 2007-2010 and compare it with similar distribution of household saving during 1997-2000. The analysis is based on the household budget panel data from three panels of 15,000 of Polish households selected by authors for years 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 from the Household Budget Surveys for 2007-2010. We estimate the long-term ergodic distribution of households according to saving rates. Our results show that the long term distribution of households reveals a tendency towards polarization of households with regard to saving rates. Comparing these results with the Authors' previous research for 1997-2000 for Poland we indicate that between 1997-2000 and 2007-2010 the change in polarization of households was asymmetrical towards the highest saving rate groups. That explains why Polish households could maintain the increase in savings during the financial crisis of 2007-2010.
Marek Pęczkowski Zofia Barbara Liberda

WP(18)84. Political Competition and Policy Choices: The Evidence From Agricultural Protection

Abstrakt

This paper investigates whether political competition plays an important role in determining the level of agricultural protection. In order to do so, we exploit variation in political and economic data from 74 developing and developed countries for the post-war period. We use two measures of political competition: one that captures the extent to which political power can be freely contested regardless of election results and one based on vote share at last parliamentary elections. Our results, based on static and dynamic panel estimators, show unambiguously that the level of support for agriculture is the higher, the higher is the level of political competition.
Jan Fałkowski Alessandro Olper

WP(17)83. Life Cycle Income and Consumption Patterns in Transition

Abstrakt

There is vast literature examining how households' income and consumption change over the life cycle. These studies, however, are usually restricted to developed economies. The main objective of this paper is to add to this literature by investigating the life cycle profiles and relative income mobility in a transition economy, facing rapid structural economic and social changes, such as Poland. I show that, in contrast to the US, where income inequality over the life cycle follows a roughly linear trend, the age-variance profile of income in Poland is hump-shaped. This finding might indicate that the income process at a micro level in Poland exhibits less persistence than in the US. The estimates of relative income mobility confirm this conjecture.
Aleksandra Kolasa

WP(16)82. Did people "buy" what was "sold"? A qualitative evaluation a Contingent Valuation survey information set for gains in life expectancy

Abstrakt

A number of stated preferences studies have quantified the value of gains in life expectancy from pollution control and use a Value of a Life Year (VOLY) approach to calculate the value placed on avoiding premature mortality following exposure to such pollution. However, life expectancy gains are a complex concept and no attempt has been made, to date, to investigate peoples' understanding of what it is they are being asked to value. This paper uses a structured debriefing exercise to qualitatively investigate an approach which explicitly emphasises how this gain is delivered. We find that, for the majority of respondents, the approach is effective in communicating the ongoing nature of the gain and reduces the use of the (incorrect) heuristic that it is an 'add-on' at the end of life, in poor health. Further refinements are required, however, to communicate the cumulative nature of these risk reductions and the lack of impact on quality of life.
Anna Bartczak Rachel Baker, Susan Chilton, Hugh Metcalf

WP(15)81. The Effects of Experience on Preference Uncertainty: Theory and Empirics for Public and Quasi-Public Goods

Abstrakt

This paper develops a model of demand estimation in which consumers learn about their true preferences through consumption experiences. We develop a theoretical model of Bayesian updating, perform comparative statics over the model, and show how the theoretical model can be consistently incorporated into a reduced form econometric model. We then estimate the model using data collected for two quasi-public goods. We find that the predictions of the theoretical exercise that additional experience with a good will make consumers more certain over their preferences in both mean and variance are supported in each case.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Nick Hanley, Jacob LaRiviere

WP(14)80. Valuing the chances of survival of two distinct Eurasian lynx populations in Poland. Do people want to keep doors open?

Abstrakt

This survey deals with valuing the social benefits of increasing chances of survival of the two main Eurasian lynx populations in Poland: the Lowland population and the Carpathian one. The populations are exposed to different risks of extinction. Using a discrete choice experiment we examined the influence of the initial degree of endangerment of those lynx populations on respondents' funds allocation. The results show that instead of investing in the option with the expected higher outcome a main driver of individuals' decisions regarding the conservation of threatened species seems to be loss aversion. Thus, people seem to try to keep options (doors) open by investing more in the more vulnerable population. Moreover, employing a scale-extended latent class model allowed to detect segments among individuals showing different types of response behavior and therefore improved the accuracy of the willingness to pay estimates considerably compared to a conditional logit model.
Anna Bartczak Jürgen Meyerhoff

WP(13)79. Small sample properties of matching with caliper

Abstrakt

A caliper mechanism is a common tool used to prevent from inexact matches. The existing literature discusses asymptotic properties of matching with caliper. In this simulation study we investigate properties in small and medium sized samples. We show that caliper causes a significant bias of the ATT estimator and raises its variance in comparison to one-to-one matching.
Paweł Strawiński

WP(12)78. Economic effects of differentiated climate action

Abstrakt

We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and provide a new rigorous one. This is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis for unilateral carbon dioxide abatement programs in the EU. Our model of the global economy is disaggregated into three regions. The analysis includes a decomposition of change in carbon emission. While some anti-leakage measures reduce carbon leakage significantly, some of them are less effective. We identified a list of parameters which affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of carbon leakage rate. Manipulating with elasticities of substitution in production function suggests that in reaction to the unilateral action of the EU, the other regions may both increase or decrease their carbon emissions. Even though we are positive about computable general equilibrium models' application in this policy area, their policy simulations cannot be directly treated as policy recommendations without a careful validation of their assumptions.
Olga Kiuila Tomasz Żylicz Leszek Kąsek, Krzysztof Wójtowicz

WP(11)77. The economic value of a White Stork nesting colony: a case of 'stork village' in Poland

Abstrakt

In this paper we estimate the economic value of selected ecosystem services provided by White Storks in a Polish 'stork village'. A stork village is a common name for a village with a White Stork breeding colony, often inhabited by more storks than people. Zywkowo, the best known stork village in Poland, receives 2000-5000 tourists annually, many of whom come from abroad. The village has about 20-40 White Stork nests and several amenities aiming at improving its recreational attractiveness. To estimate the economic benefits provided by the stork village we apply the travel cost method. This is the first study of this kind for a stork village, and the first study related to the value of birds in Poland. Our results provide a useful input into policy and decision making, indicating that nature has economic value. It also serves as a clear illustration that degradation of nature may entail economic losses.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Marek Giergiczny Jakub Kronenberg, Piotr Tryjanowski

WP(10)76. More random or more deterministic choices? The effects of information on preferences for biodiversity conservation

Abstrakt

For many years, stated preference researchers have been interested in the effects of information on willingness to pay for environmental goods. Within the random utility model, information about an environmental good might impact on preferences and on scale (error variance), both between and within samples of choices. In this paper, we extend the G-MNL model to investigate the effects of different information sets on choices over the management of biodiversity in the UK, looking specifically at moorlands managed for red grouse shooting. Specifically, we make the individual scale parameter a function of observable (dataset-specific) characteristics. Our results show that changing information sets results in significant differences in the mean scale between datasets, and in the variance of scale. Respondents are more deterministic in their choices and show lower within-sample scale heterogeneity in the alternative information treatment. Changes in information provision also effect willingness to pay estimates, reducing the value people place on the conservation of two iconic birds of prey. The methods used will also be of interest to researchers who need to combine choice experiment data sets.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Nick Hanley

WP(9)75. Sex, morals and exam cheating

Abstrakt

This paper reports a field experiment investigating effectiveness of moral appeal in discouraging exam cheating. Substantial level of cheating was identified using an index of test answers similarity, contrasted with low self-reports. The treatment manipulation made an impact on self-reported but not observed frequency of cheating. Hypothesized gender difference, whereby males took but not gave more illicit information than females was also found.
Michał Krawczyk

WP(8)74. Learning and Fatigue Effects Revisited. The Impact of Accounting for Unobservable Preference and Scale Heterogeneity on Perceived Ordering Effects in Multiple Choice Task Discrete Choice Experiments

Abstrakt

Using multiple choice tasks per respondent in discrete choice experiment studies increase the amount of available information. However, treating repeated choice data in the same way as cross-sectional data may lead to biased estimates. In particular, respondents' learning and fatigue may lead to changes in observed utility function preference (taste) parameters, as well as its error term variance (scale). Substantial body of empirical research offers mixed evidence in terms of whether (and which) of these ordering effects are observed. In this study we point to a significant component in explaining these differences - we show how accounting for unobservable preference and scale heterogeneity can influence the magnitude of observed ordering effects, especially if combined with too few choice tasks used for the analysis. We do this by utilizing the state-of-the-art modeling methods (H-MNL, S-MNL, H-RPL, G-MNL) which we modify to accommodate choice task specific scale parameter. In addition, we investigate possible bias resulting from not accounting for ordering effects. Our empirical study was based in the context of environmental protection - management changes in the protection of Polish forests.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Marek Giergiczny William H. Greene

WP(7)73. We want to sort! - assessing households' preferences for sorting waste

Abstrakt

There are two major ways in which solid waste can be sorted and recycled - at the household level, when households are required to sort waste into a given number of categories, or in specialized sorting facilities. Traditionally, it has been thought that sorting at the household level is an inconvenience, as it uses space and requires time and consideration. Our study provides empirical evidence to the contrary. Through a carefully designed choice experiment we collected stated choices of the members of a Polish municipalities with respect to the way their waste is sorted and how often it is collected. In the scenario of our study, respondents were informed that the waste will be sorted anyway - if not at the household level than at a specialized sorting facility. Interestingly, analysis of the preferences of members of the general public shows, that people are willing to sort waste at the household level, even if unsorted waste would be collected at no extra cost. We calculate maximum willingness to pay for collecting sorted vs. unsorted waste, as well for increased frequency of collection. Overall, our results provide encouraging evidence that most people prefer to sort waste themselves if given the choice, and thus demonstrate their pro-environment preferences, even without economic incentives to do so.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Tadeusz Kądziela, Nick Hanley

WP(6)72. Testing game theory without the social preference confound

Abstrakt

We propose an experimental method whose purpose is to induce selfish behavior in games for a broad class of social preferences. It provides a theoretical framework for testing game theoretical predictions by confronting subjects with a commonly known payoff matrix actually representing their preferences. The paper describes the empirical tests of this method based on the comparison of results from several popular experimental games played with and without our methodology. Apart from it being a test of validity of the method, our experiment helps answer the question of how useful social preferences could be in explaining commonly observed deviations from selfish rationality. Results suggest that our method does induce more selfish behaviors: a substantial part of the difference between predictions based on selfishness and observed behaviors seems indeed driven by such preferences. But they also indicate that a considerable share is left untouched, perhaps giving weight to alternative explanations.
Michał Krawczyk Fabrice Le Lec

WP(5)71. The Idea of Good (Enough) Governance. A Look from Complexity Economics

Abstrakt

Nowadays we observe a consensus in the development literature that the quality of governance matters for economic development. Therefore, many postulate the implementation of good governance principle, however, that very idea is not well defined and conceptualized. This paper offers some insights into the way that concept can be better understood. We do that by applying the conceptual apparatus taken from the complexity economics. What follows is the conclusion that the idea of good governance as seen from the perspective of complexity economics is very similar to the one of good enough governance. Moreover, we present some pragmatic recommendations for both development policies as well as the ways such policies should be prepared.
Łukasz Hardt

WP(4)70. Investment strategies beating the market. What can we squeeze from the market?

Abstrakt

The paper presents the new approach to optimizing automatic transactional systems. We propose the multi-stage technique which enables us to find investment strategies beating the market. Additionally, new measures of combined risk and returns are applied in the process of optimization. Moreover, we define new elements of risk control system based on volatility measures and consecutive signals confirmation. As the result, we formulate three complex investment systems, which maximize returns and simultaneously minimize risk in comparison to all other alternative investments (IR=2, Maximum Drawdown <21%, Maximum Loss Duration=0.75 year). Our analysis is based on historical daily data (1998-2010, in- and out-of-sample period) for index and commodity futures. Afterwards, systems are reoptimized and reallocated each half a year in order to include the most recent financial data. Finally, we show the results for joint model consisting of our three systems.
Robert Ślepaczuk Paweł Sakowski Grzegorz Zakrzewski

WP(3)69. Municipal Wastewater Treatment in Poland - Efficiency, Costs and Returns to Scale

Abstrakt

The paper reports the costs of municipal wastewater collection and treatment in Poland based on an empirical sample of 1400 operators. Treatment cost functions are investigated econometrically using the Box-Cox regression model, indicating high non-linearity and significant scale effects. Wastewater treatment costs are increasing with technology efficiency (moving from the primary, through the secondary, to the tertiary treatment), and decreasing with higher wastewater treatment plant capacity. Combining treatment and collection costs with treatment efficiency allows estimation of costs and potentials for reducing the nitrogen and phosphorus loadings to rivers by improving the efficiency of wastewater treatments plants, or building new ones, on an aggregated country-wide scale. Therefore, our results provide valuable input into any cost-benefit analyses of nutrient loadings reduction through extending or upgrading municipal wastewater treatment systems.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Krzysztof Berbeka, Agnieszka Markowska

WP(2)68. Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market

Abstrakt

This paper explores cointegration among three of the most popular agriculture soft commodities (corn, soya and wheat) and its potential usefulness for dynamic asset allocation strategies. Johansen tests indicate that natural logarithms of weekly prices of corn, soya and wheat futures are cointegrated and two cointegrating vectors exist. Formal tests show that the estimated long-run relationship is stable even beyond the estimation sample. We use obtained results to create simple trading rules and verify their profitability. The trading strategies risk-adjusted abnormal returns look to be significant based on the Sharpe ratio criterion and they are low correlated with the stock market.
Piotr Arendarski, Łukasz Postek

WP(1)67. Tactical allocation in falling stocks: Combining momentum and solvency ratio signals

Abstrakt

We identified 4500 US stocks with year ending losses of 50 percent or more during the 2001-2011 period. We screened our "falling knives" for financial strength to promote a greater likelihood of recovery and minimize any survivorship bias. We added the constraints of Altman Z-Scores, debt/equity ratio, and current ratio to our data set. We use GARCH-in-mean model to control the risk of the strategies. The results show consistent improvement of risk-standardized return profiles of the strategies in comparison with buy and hold strategy.
Piotr Arendarski

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