Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: \qMpr*#0%xN{ZzH=sjLG4S@WXTF]#[Ta@\\sm{ci0nN7@&YsB?A5{MaE/

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 231

WP(37/2026)531. Do non-financial incentives work better for women? Two classroom experiments on calibration

Autorzy: Amirkhanyan Hayk
This paper reports the results of two experiments exploring the effects of monetary and non-monetary incentives on overconfidence and underconfidence. It additionally explores the moderating effects of gender. The participants of both experiments are…

WP531. Do non-financial incentives work better for women? Two classroom experiments on calibration

This paper reports the results of two experiments exploring the effects of monetary and non-monetary incentives on overconfidence and underconfidence. It additionally explores the moderating effects of gender. The participants of both experiments are university students taking their academic tests. Right before the tests, they predict weather their score will be higher or lower than the average in their class group. Overplacement is defined as expecting a better-than-average score but actually getting a below-average score. Similarly, underplacement occurs when a subject expects a below-average score but ends up above the average. Half of the subjects are incentivized: some receive money and others a handmade gift conditional on predicting correctly. Experiment 1 is conducted weekly for nine tests and involves students of one course. Experiment 2 involves students of four different courses, and the grade predictions are made on the final exam only. While Experiment 2 shows no significant results, the main finding from Experiment 1 is that the handmade gift reduces the likelihood of overplacement and underplacement for women, making them significantly better calibrated than men. Experiment 1 also shows that overplacement, but not underplacement, is more likely when the stakes are high (midterm and final tests compared to the weekly quizzes). Finally, there is limited support for the Dunning-Kruger effect.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.37.531
Amirkhanyan Hayk
overconfidence overplacement underconfidence non-monetary incentives gender differences Dunning-Kruger effect

WP(34/2026)528. Job Stressors, Self-Reported Stress, and Childbearing Decisions: A Longitudinal Study of Working Women in Germany

Autorzy: Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
Occupational stressors are linked to workers' subjective stress and major life decisions, such as job change, but their role in fertility transitions is unclear. This study examines whether objective occupational stressors and self-reported stres…

WP528. Job Stressors, Self-Reported Stress, and Childbearing Decisions: A Longitudinal Study of Working Women in Germany

Occupational stressors are linked to workers' subjective stress and major life decisions, such as job change, but their role in fertility transitions is unclear. This study examines whether objective occupational stressors and self-reported stress jointly shape childbearing among employed women in Germany. We test two competing hypotheses: women either exit taxing jobs by redirecting resources to family life, or preserve occupational resources by delaying or foregoing childbirth. We combine occupation-level stressor measures from the German BIBB/BAuA Employment Survey with data on 4,205 women from the 2011–2021 German Family Panel (Pairfam). Mixed-effects logistic regression models are applied by parity and adjusted for confounders. Among mothers, high stressors and self-reported stress were linked to a higher likelihood of pregnancy, supporting the exit hypothesis. Among childless women, associations were weaker and limited to psychosocial stressors. The stress-fertility link depends on women's subjective stress appraisal and parity, not only on objective job characteristics.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.34.528
Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
fertility work-life balance job exposure matrix self-reported stress

WP(33/2026)527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Autorzy: Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implemen…

WP527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implementation credibility). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 1,100 Polish urban residents, we examine how policy scenario credibility shapes preferences for air pollution mitigation reducing risks from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We contrast domain experts and artificial intelligence (AI) with no-source control as information sources on policy outcome projections. We find that epistemic and implementation credibility are strongly correlated; thus, we treat credibility as a single variable affecting preferences. Using a hybrid mixed logit (HMXL) model, we demonstrate that higher perceived credibility increases programme support, lowers cost sensitivity, and thus elevates willingness to pay (WTP) for the programme and morbidity risk reduction. We find no evidence that the information source influences preferences or scenario credibility.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.33.527
Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
air pollution artificial intelligence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease credibility discrete choice experiment information source

WP(31/2026)525. Co-adaptation: From MARL Non-stationarity to the Dynamics of Economic Adjustment

Autorzy: Lisicki Jan, Kopczewski Tomasz
Economic agents adapt their behavior to experience generated by interactions with other market participants. When several agents update their behavioral rules simultaneously, these adaptation processes become interdependent. We refer to this mechanis…

WP525. Co-adaptation: From MARL Non-stationarity to the Dynamics of Economic Adjustment

Economic agents adapt their behavior to experience generated by interactions with other market participants. When several agents update their behavioral rules simultaneously, these adaptation processes become interdependent. We refer to this mechanism 
as co-adaptation. The paper develops a formal representation that separates the continuation of an agent's own rule updates from cross-agent effects on subsequent updates. In a two-agent system, mutual influence can increase the cumulative effect of an initial change and prolong the resulting adjustment process. A simple model of price adjustment between two firms shows how these effects depend on adjustment speed and the response to a competitor's price change. With more agents, interdependencies between adaptation processes form a directed network. This perspective links economic adjustment to multi-agent reinforcement learning, where learning by one agent changes the environment experienced by others, and clarifies when such non-stationarity is part of economic dynamics rather than only a computational difficulty.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.31.525
Lisicki Jan, Kopczewski Tomasz
economic adjustment multi-agent reinforcement learning adaptive learning agent-based computational economics co-adaptation

WP(27/2026)521. What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Autorzy: Jusypenko Bartosz
Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respond…

WP521. What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respondents to consider potential heritage loss affects stated willingness to pay (WTP) for renovation of a building and whether the contribution of information about adaptive reuse depends on whether such loss enters the valuation decision. A contingent valuation survey of 452 adult residents living near Pückler Palace, a deteriorating historic building in Poland, used a 2 × 2 randomized design combining a loss-consideration prompt with information about a genuine proposal to adapt the renovated palace as the new premises of the Museum of Ceramics. WTP was elicited as the maximum mandatory one-off levy respondents would support within an advisory-referendum framework. Among respondents not assigned to the loss-prompt treatment, a post-valuation question identified spontaneous consideration of heritage loss. Two-part models separated the probability of positive WTP from the amount stated among positive responses. Randomized treatment estimates indicated higher WTP under the loss prompt when reuse information was absent. The unconditional mean difference was positive but imprecisely estimated, while the corresponding difference among positive-WTP respondents was statistically significant. In the conditional models, respondents assigned to the loss prompt had approximately twice the odds of positive WTP and a 61% higher conditional geometric mean of positive WTP than that of unprompted respondents who did not report spontaneous loss consideration. Among unprompted respondents, spontaneous loss consideration—reported by 54%—was associated with a 92% higher conditional geometric mean of positive WTP than in unprompted respondents who did not report such consideration. Evidence that reuse information contributed more when loss was not considered was suggestive rather than conclusive. The findings show that common information about an asset’s current condition need not produce a common understanding of its expected future without the proposed intervention. Stated preference surveys should therefore specify this trajectory with sufficient clarity and credibility that respondents are evaluating a common underlying policy change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.27.521
Jusypenko Bartosz
cultural heritage historic preservation adaptive reuse contingent valuation stated preferences prospect of loss

WP(25/2026)519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Autorzy: Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecol…

WP519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecological resilience, yet they are often assumed to conflict with societal preferences, potentially limiting public support for conservation and restoration. We examined whether forest characteristics associated with biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation are consistently valued by society across Europe. We combined a visual discrete choice experiment involving 11,622 respondents from twelve European countries with a travel cost model to evaluate whether stated societal preferences were reflected in observed recreational behaviour. We then integrated harmonized preference estimates with continental forest inventory and remote-sensing data to map the spatial distribution of societal values associated with forest ecosystem condition. Across all countries, respondents consistently preferred forests characterized by taller canopies, greater tree-species richness, heterogeneous age structures, and more deadwood. These preferences closely aligned with observed visitation behaviour despite substantial differences in geography, accessibility, and recreational traditions. Spatial analyses further showed that forests with greater structural complexity consistently exhibited higher societal value. Our findings demonstrate that biodiversity-oriented forest management and societal values largely converge across Europe, suggesting that many interventions promoting ecological resilience can simultaneously strengthen public support for forest conservation and restoration, providing a stronger foundation for adaptive, multifunctional forest governance under global environmental change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.25.519
Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
biodiversity conservation forest management structural complexity forest recreation ecosystem services discrete choice experiment travel cost method

WP(24/2026)518. The impact of public transport accessibility on the Polish labour market – an econometric approach

Autorzy: Pakier Grzegorz, Zabarina Kateryna
This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the impact of transport accessibility on the registered unemployment rate. It utilises a transport accessibility index that was previously developed for municipalities in Poland. Analysis …

WP518. The impact of public transport accessibility on the Polish labour market – an econometric approach

This paper uses geographically weighted regression to examine the impact of transport accessibility on the registered unemployment rate. It utilises a transport accessibility index that was previously developed for municipalities in Poland. Analysis of three econometric models revealed that transport accessibility has a significant negative impact on the unemployment rate, which varies across the regions studied. The model using the average transport accessibility of municipalities within a given county showed a stronger relationship with the unemployment rate. This suggests that accessibility at the county level is more important than local accessibility. Furthermore, it was found that the type of municipality had no impact on the strength or direction of the examined relationship. The research confirms that public transport availability significantly influences unemployment levels in Poland, with considerable spatial variation in this relationship. The results emphasise the importance of considering the regional context of transport accessibility when devising anti-unemployment policies.


Pakier Grzegorz, Zabarina Kateryna
transport accessibility unemployment rate geographically weighted regression transport exclusion spatial mismatch

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(21/2026)515. Beyond Weeks Closed: Reassessing Pandemic Educational Disruption with TIMSS 2003–2023

Autorzy: Binkiewicz Marzena, Pokropek Artur
Using six TIMSS cycles (2003–2023), UNESCO school-closure data, and World Bank GDP indicators, we estimate deviation-from-trend and continuous-treatment Difference-in-Differences models for mathematics achievement, liking learning mathematics, …

WP515. Beyond Weeks Closed: Reassessing Pandemic Educational Disruption with TIMSS 2003–2023

Using six TIMSS cycles (2003–2023), UNESCO school-closure data, and World Bank GDP indicators, we estimate deviation-from-trend and continuous-treatment Difference-in-Differences models for mathematics achievement, liking learning mathematics, and confidence in mathematics. Mathematics achievement declined substantially relative to pre-pandemic trends, but closure duration did not consistently explain cross-national variation in achievement losses. Unexpectedly, longer closures were associated with slightly higher liking learning mathematics, particularly among Grade 4 students in higher-GDP countries, while confidence in mathematics remained largely unchanged. These findings suggest a decoupling of cognitive and affective outcomes during the pandemic and indicate that school-closure duration alone is an insufficient measure of educational harm. Comparative evaluations of pandemic education policies should therefore incorporate indicators of instructional continuity, remote-learning quality, and recovery efforts alongside formal school-closure measures.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.21.515
Binkiewicz Marzena, Pokropek Artur
Mathematics achievement non-cognitive factors distance learning school closures TIMSS math anxiety self-efficacy

WP(20/2026)514. Hedging Auction Volatility with Gap Call Options

Autorzy: Mbara Gilbert
We investigate the feasibility of hedging commodity price risk using gap call options within an auction-based market devoid of traditional derivatives. Using a novel, high-frequency dataset from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), we model spot price …

WP514. Hedging Auction Volatility with Gap Call Options

We investigate the feasibility of hedging commodity price risk using gap call options within an auction-based market devoid of traditional derivatives. Using a novel, high-frequency dataset from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE), we model spot price dynamics by deriving a Geometric Brownian Motion process from the independent private values paradigm. The estimated model captures the unique microstructure of the NCE, where discrete weekly auctions generate prices characterized by extreme volatility (146.5% annualized). We utilize Monte Carlo simulation to price and evaluate the performance of gap call options for buyers seeking protection against catastrophic price spikes. Our results demonstrate that gap options – characterized by a trigger price higher than the strike – provide superior risk-adjusted returns compared to standard European calls. Our study offers a practical framework for developing tailored risk management instruments in emerging commodity exchanges, and provides empirical evidence for the viability of gap options as a cost-effective hedging tool in high-volatility, institutionally constrained markets.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.20.514
Mbara Gilbert
risk management hedging commodity price risk gap options Nairobi Coffee Exchange geometric Brownian motion Monte Carlo simulation