Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: a#2CB=by4z|?$m6X8Ri*{P~f.q!]#[Yu!#'&Jjpkb.t*.Gx[_|*2c\7bl

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 7

WP(37/2026)531. Do non-financial incentives work better for women? Two classroom experiments on calibration

Autorzy: Amirkhanyan Hayk
This paper reports the results of two experiments exploring the effects of monetary and non-monetary incentives on overconfidence and underconfidence. It additionally explores the moderating effects of gender. The participants of both experiments are…

WP531. Do non-financial incentives work better for women? Two classroom experiments on calibration

This paper reports the results of two experiments exploring the effects of monetary and non-monetary incentives on overconfidence and underconfidence. It additionally explores the moderating effects of gender. The participants of both experiments are university students taking their academic tests. Right before the tests, they predict weather their score will be higher or lower than the average in their class group. Overplacement is defined as expecting a better-than-average score but actually getting a below-average score. Similarly, underplacement occurs when a subject expects a below-average score but ends up above the average. Half of the subjects are incentivized: some receive money and others a handmade gift conditional on predicting correctly. Experiment 1 is conducted weekly for nine tests and involves students of one course. Experiment 2 involves students of four different courses, and the grade predictions are made on the final exam only. While Experiment 2 shows no significant results, the main finding from Experiment 1 is that the handmade gift reduces the likelihood of overplacement and underplacement for women, making them significantly better calibrated than men. Experiment 1 also shows that overplacement, but not underplacement, is more likely when the stakes are high (midterm and final tests compared to the weekly quizzes). Finally, there is limited support for the Dunning-Kruger effect.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.37.531
Amirkhanyan Hayk
overconfidence overplacement underconfidence non-monetary incentives gender differences Dunning-Kruger effect

WP(16/2025)479. Estimating causal effects of extended school closures on non-cognitive factors: evidence from TIMSS and PISA

Autorzy: Binkiewicz Marzena, Artur Pokropek
This study investigates the causal impact of prolonged school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on non-cognitive predictors of mathematics achievement and the strength of their association with student performance. Drawing on data from TIMSS (201…

WP479. Estimating causal effects of extended school closures on non-cognitive factors: evidence from TIMSS and PISA

This study investigates the causal impact of prolonged school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic on non-cognitive predictors of mathematics achievement and the strength of their association with student performance. Drawing on data from TIMSS (2015, 2019, 2023) and PISA (2022), we apply difference-in-differences (DiD) models across two research designs: successive cross-sections of 4th-grade cohorts and a pseudo-panel following a cohort from primary to secondary school. Our findings indicate that, although school closures did not significantly affect the level of students’ self-beliefs, they did reduce the strength of the association between negative attitudes and achievement—particularly among girls and in OECD countries. The results highlight the nuanced effects of distance learning on mathematics outcomes, contributing to the literature on the role of affective-motivational factors in education.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.16.479
Binkiewicz Marzena, Artur Pokropek
Mathematics achievement non-cognitive factors distance learning school closures TIMSS PISA gender differences math anxiety self-efficacy

WP(6/2022)382. Calibration and incentives: evidence from contract bridge

Autorzy: Krawczyk Michał, Wilamowski Maciej
We elicit probability forecasts from amateur contract bridge players. At the end of the auction of each deal in a tournament, the players were asked to make a guess (unobservable to others) about the probability with which the contract will be made. …

WP382. Calibration and incentives: evidence from contract bridge

We elicit probability forecasts from amateur contract bridge players. At the end of the auction of each deal in a tournament, the players were asked to make a guess (unobservable to others) about the probability with which the contract will be made. We observe them to be overall poorly calibrated. We also find that incentivizing correct forecasts makes no difference.


Krawczyk Michał, Wilamowski Maciej
overconfidence forecast incentives gender differences bridge into professions

WP(3/2022)379. Is running a marathon like running a business? Identifying occupational differences in overconfidence using long-distance running data

Autorzy: Amirkhanyan Hayk, Krawczyk Michał, Wilamowski Maciej
It is often claimed that certain career choices, notably running a business, are associated with excessive confidence in own capabilities. Such a link could partly explain e.g., the surprisingly high number of unsuccessful start-ups. We verify these …

WP379. Is running a marathon like running a business? Identifying occupational differences in overconfidence using long-distance running data

It is often claimed that certain career choices, notably running a business, are associated with excessive confidence in own capabilities. Such a link could partly explain e.g., the surprisingly high number of unsuccessful start-ups. We verify these claims in a sample of marathon runners. We take starting too fast and then slowing down in a marathon race as a proxy for overconfidence. In a sample of over 50 thousand runners, we match marathon pacing data with job titles that are partly reported by the runners themselves and partly identified by us (using runners’ names, years of birth, and places of residence to find their personal web sites, social media profiles etc., whenever possible). We observe that job categories have a significant impact on slowing down (as a proxy for overconfidence), also when we control for observable demographic factors (such as age, gender, place of residence). In particular, entrepreneurs tend to be more overconfident than the general population.


Amirkhanyan Hayk, Krawczyk Michał, Wilamowski Maciej
overconfidence slowdown occupational differences gender differences selection into professions

WP(1/2015)149. Are we all overconfident in the long run? Evidence from one million marathon participants

Autorzy: Krawczyk Michał, Wilamowski Maciej
In this project we sought to contribute to extant literature on overconfidence by identifying it in a large, heterogeneous sample making familiar, repeated choices in a natural environment which provides direct feedback. In Study 1 we elicited predic…

WP149. Are we all overconfident in the long run? Evidence from one million marathon participants

In this project we sought to contribute to extant literature on overconfidence by identifying it in a large, heterogeneous sample making familiar, repeated choices in a natural environment which provides direct feedback. In Study 1 we elicited predictions of own finishing time among participants of the 2012 Warsaw Marathon. Their prediction errors turned out to be very highly correlated with the change in pace over the course of the run. In Study 2 we thus took this change in pace as a proxy for self-confidence and used existing field data of around one million participants. Both studies indicate that males as well as youngest and oldest participants tend to be more confident. In Study 2 we are also able to investigate national and cultural dimensions, confirming previously reported findings of relative overconfidence in Asians and providing some novel results, i.a. that relatively conservative societies tend to be more self-confident.


Krawczyk Michał, Wilamowski Maciej
overconfidence performance forecasts gender differences age effects national culture

WP(9/2012)75. Sex, morals and exam cheating

Autorzy: Krawczyk Michał
This paper reports a field experiment investigating effectiveness of moral appeal in discouraging exam cheating. Substantial level of cheating was identified using an index of test answers similarity, contrasted with low self-reports. The treatment m…

WP75. Sex, morals and exam cheating

This paper reports a field experiment investigating effectiveness of moral appeal in discouraging exam cheating. Substantial level of cheating was identified using an index of test answers similarity, contrasted with low self-reports. The treatment manipulation made an impact on self-reported but not observed frequency of cheating. Hypothesized gender difference, whereby males took but not gave more illicit information than females was also found.


Krawczyk Michał
exam cheating moral appeal gender differences field experiments

WP(13/2011)53. To answer or not to answer? A field test of loss aversion

Autorzy: Krawczyk Michał
This study is a field experiment on loss aversion. The framing of scoring rules was differentiated in two exams at the University of Warsaw, with only half the students facing explicit penalty points in the case of giving an incorrect answer. Loss av…

WP53. To answer or not to answer? A field test of loss aversion

This study is a field experiment on loss aversion. The framing of scoring rules was differentiated in two exams at the University of Warsaw, with only half the students facing explicit penalty points in the case of giving an incorrect answer. Loss aversion predicts that less risk will be taken (less questions will be answered) when losses are possible but in fact, no treatment effect was observed.


Krawczyk Michał
loss aversion framing field experiments gender differences
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