Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

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Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 16

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(15/2026)509. Capturing zero-price effects in stated choice surveys: implications for willingness-to-pay and welfare

Autorzy: Tjiong Jeff, Dekker Thijs, Hess Stephane, Giergiczny Marek, Ojeda-Cabral Manuel, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Stated choice surveys commonly used in public policy appraisal – such as in transport or environmental economics – often contrast a ‘free’ status quo alternative against a range of (policy) interventions which can be implement…

WP509. Capturing zero-price effects in stated choice surveys: implications for willingness-to-pay and welfare

Stated choice surveys commonly used in public policy appraisal – such as in transport or environmental economics – often contrast a ‘free’ status quo alternative against a range of (policy) interventions which can be implemented at a cost. Limited attention has, however, been paid to the fact that the ‘free’ nature of the status quo (SQ) alternative may make the SQ alternative overly attractive due to the zero-price (ZP) effect. The ZP effect is a well-established notion in behavioural economics explaining the phenomenon that individuals tend to over-react to free alternatives. We present an experimental design setup allowing the separation of the ZP effect from the SQ effect together with the identification of non-linear sensitivities to costs. Choices made by students between different mobile broadband packages are used for illustrational purposes. Our analysis shows that the ZP effect is significant and the observed preference to remain in the SQ is largely due to the ZP effect. In practice, this may lead to biased welfare estimates for public policy packages if the ZP effect is not explicitly accounted for. Moreover, we also show that misspecification of the functional form for cost can lead to significant bias in WTP estimates and the ZP and SQ effects.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.15.509
Tjiong Jeff, Dekker Thijs, Hess Stephane, Giergiczny Marek, Ojeda-Cabral Manuel, Czajkowski Mikołaj
zero-price effect stated choice experiments status quo bias willingness-to-pay welfare analysis discrete choice modelling non-linear cost sensitivity Box-Cox transformation mobile broadband

WP(13/2026)507. Did Living Standards Converge? Beyond GDP in Post-Socialist Europe and Russia

Autorzy: Brzeziński Michał
Three decades after the fall of communism, GDP convergence is widely cited as evidence that the post-socialist transition succeeded. But GDP is a narrow measure of living standards. This paper asks whether convergence toward Western Europe holds up o…

WP507. Did Living Standards Converge? Beyond GDP in Post-Socialist Europe and Russia

Three decades after the fall of communism, GDP convergence is widely cited as evidence that the post-socialist transition succeeded. But GDP is a narrow measure of living standards. This paper asks whether convergence toward Western Europe holds up once health, inequality, and leisure are also taken into account. We construct a comprehensive welfare measure for Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Russia, benchmarked against Germany, covering the 1980s through 2022. In every country, welfare relative to Germany falls well below what GDP alone would suggest. Russia’s welfare stands at roughly half its GDP level, driven by the post-Soviet mortality crisis and extreme inequality—challenging characterisations of Russia as a “normal” middle-income country. Hungary, conventionally grouped with the Visegrad convergence successes, suffers a substantial welfare shortfall driven by decades of poor health outcomes. Poland emerges as the strongest performer in convergence dynamics. Life expectancy is the largest contributor to this gap.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.13.507
Brzeziński Michał
welfare measurement Eastern Europe Russia transition economies living standards life expectancy inequality

WP(2/2026)496. The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

Autorzy: Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribut…

WP496. The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribute significantly: fluctuations impact welfare of some cohorts by an equivalent of 30% of annual consumption. These first-order effects do not net out over a typical life cycle: some cohorts have been much less lucky than others. Life cycle aspects also amplify second-order costs of fluctuations. Monetary policy shocks are highly redistributive and, hence play an over-proportional role in driving redistribution: they are responsible for over 20% of its total amount. Systematic monetary policy has a quantitatively significant impact on redistribution as well: policy that responds strongly to inflation and output can substantially increase intergenerational redistribution.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.2.496
Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
Business Cycles Welfare Redistribution Monetary Policy Life-cycle Model

WP(5/2024)441. How stable and predictable are welfare estimates using recreation demand models?

Autorzy: Lloyd-Smith Patrick, Zawojska Ewa
Economic analysis of environmental policy projects typically use pre-existing welfare estimates that are then transferred over time to the policy relevant periods. Understanding how stable and predictable these welfare estimates are over time is impo…

WP441. How stable and predictable are welfare estimates using recreation demand models?

Economic analysis of environmental policy projects typically use pre-existing welfare estimates that are then transferred over time to the policy relevant periods. Understanding how stable and predictable these welfare estimates are over time is important for applying these estimates in policy. Yet, revealed preference models of recreation demand have received few temporal stability assessments compared to other non-market valuation methods. We use a large administrative dataset on campground reservations covering ten years to study temporal stability and predictability of recreation demand welfare estimates of lake water quality changes. Based on single-year models, our findings suggest welfare estimates are temporally stable across years in around 50% of the comparisons. Using an event study design, we find evidence that welfare estimates are stable within a year, that is, for weeks after a change in water quality. Our findings further reveal that having two years of data for predicting welfare estimates in subsequent years improves the prediction accuracy by 22% relative to using a single year of data, but further improvements in the prediction accuracy are modest when including additional years of data. Predictions of welfare estimates are not necessarily improved when using data closer in time to the prediction year. We discuss the implications of our results for using revealed preference studies in policy analysis.


Lloyd-Smith Patrick, Zawojska Ewa
recreation demand revealed preferences temporal stability prediction accuracy water quality welfare estimates

WP(4/2024)440. Welfare and economic implications of universal child benefits

Autorzy: Kolasa Aleksandra
Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effe…

WP440. Welfare and economic implications of universal child benefits

Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effects. However, given their large-scale implementation, such programs can have sizable general equilibrium effects. The aim of this paper is to study the long-run implications of universal child benefits within a theoretical framework that can capture the complexities of household decisions regarding consumption, labor participation, and the timing of children. To this end, I develop an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic earnings risk, infertility shocks, and endogenous temporal fertility. According to the model simulations, universal child benefits lead to a reduction in the spacing between children and, on average, lower maternal age at childbirth for all births. This, in turn, alleviates some of the negative aggregate effects typically associated with redistributive policies, but has a detrimental impact on the average quality of children. Finally, universal child benefits increase ex-ante welfare by 0.42% of lifetime adult consumption, significantly outperforming broad-based transfer policies not tied to the number of children.


Kolasa Aleksandra
universal child benefits infertility risk temporal fertility social welfare general equilibrium models

WP(24/2023)431. Two possible reasons behind the reluctance of low-skilled workers to migrate to generous welfare states

Autorzy: Byra Łukasz
This paper provides two possible explanations for the mixed evidence regarding migration by low-skilled workers to generous welfare states. Using a model of unrestricted migration to a developed, destination country, which provides a direct and equal…

WP431. Two possible reasons behind the reluctance of low-skilled workers to migrate to generous welfare states

This paper provides two possible explanations for the mixed evidence regarding migration by low-skilled workers to generous welfare states. Using a model of unrestricted migration to a developed, destination country, which provides a direct and equal social benefit to all its residents, we study the impact of the benefit in a country on the size of its low-skilled immigrant population under the assumption that migration is driven by an international difference in returns to skills, employment opportunities in the destination country, and by the generosity of the benefit in that country. We find that the social benefit affects the size of the country’s low-skilled immigrant population not only directly, via the difference between the benefit and its cost in the form of taxation, but also via two indirect channels. The benefit incentivizes taking up low-skilled jobs among the destination country’s native residents, which adversely affects wages of low-skilled workers in that country, and it increases the risk of unemployment of low-skilled workers therein. Prospective low-skilled migrants view these side effects of the benefit as “stay away” factors. Simulation of the model based on 2018 data for EU-15 economies without Luxembourg highlights the importance of indirect channels in curtailing the inflow of low-skilled migrants to a generous welfare state. When only direct channels are accounted for, semi-elasticities of the size of the low-skilled immigrant population with respect to the social benefit are between 0.2 and 0.54. When indirect channels are allowed to play their roles, the positive relationship between the social benefit and low-skilled immigration is significantly reduced; the semi-elasticities range from 0.13 to 0.4. At the level of the model’s fundamentals, the variation in semi-elasticities between EU-15 countries is largely explained by differences in the size of the welfare state and in efficiency of the labor market across these countries.


Byra Łukasz
Welfare migration Migration by low-skilled workers Skill formation in a destination country Unemployment in a destination country

WP(20/2022)396. Anomalies or Expected Behaviors? Understanding Stated Preferences and Welfare Implications in Light of Contemporary Behavioral Theory

Autorzy: Lades Leonhard K., Zawojska Ewa, Johnston Robert J., Hanley Nick, Delaney Liam, Czajkowski Mikołaj
The stated preference literature contains an expansive body of research on behavioral anomalies, typically understood as response patterns that are inconsistent with standard neoclassical choice theory. While the literature often implies that anomalo…

WP396. Anomalies or Expected Behaviors? Understanding Stated Preferences and Welfare Implications in Light of Contemporary Behavioral Theory

The stated preference literature contains an expansive body of research on behavioral anomalies, typically understood as response patterns that are inconsistent with standard neoclassical choice theory. While the literature often implies that anomalous behaviors are distinct to stated preferences, widespread evidence of similar patterns across real-world settings raises the potential for an alternative interpretation. We argue that these anomalies might actually reflect behaviors that are to be expected once deviations from the standard economic model and behavioral reactions to the choice architecture in stated preference surveys are considered. The article reviews and organizes the evidence of so-called “anomalous” stated preference behaviors within the context of behavioral science to provide guidance for applied welfare economics. We coordinate evidence on these anomalies using a typology grounded in behavioral science, which groups non-standard behaviors into: non-standard preferences, non-standard beliefs, and non-standard decision-making. We apply this typology to organize the evidence, clarify nomenclature, and understand the implications of non-standard behaviors in stated preference studies for applied welfare analysis. Observing the systematic and common nature of these behaviors in actual and hypothetical settings, we outline possibilities to overcome associated challenges for applied welfare analysis, by adapting new frameworks for welfare analysis proposed within behavioral science.


Lades Leonhard K., Zawojska Ewa, Johnston Robert J., Hanley Nick, Delaney Liam, Czajkowski Mikołaj
anomalies behavioral science non-standard behaviors stated preferences welfare analysis

WP(8/2022)384. On the inference about willingness to pay distribution using contingent valuation data

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawojska Ewa, Meade Norman, Seroa da Motta Ronaldo, Welsh Mike, Arigoni Ortiz Ramon
Although contingent valuation (CV) is one of the main sources of estimates of non-market values of environmental goods, little guidance exists regarding parametric approaches for modelling CV data, which would reliably estimate willingness-to-pay (WT…

WP384. On the inference about willingness to pay distribution using contingent valuation data

Although contingent valuation (CV) is one of the main sources of estimates of non-market values of environmental goods, little guidance exists regarding parametric approaches for modelling CV data, which would reliably estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values based on binary choice, payment card or open-ended preference elicitation data, among others. CV studies often rely on relatively simple approaches to modeling stated preference responses, without examining alternative modelling specifications. Lower-bound, non-parametric estimates seem to be preferred in legal cases, while studies that apply parametric approaches often select a specification among a limited set of commonly used distributions. To enhance the reliability of CV-based WTP estimates, we propose to adopt a more flexible approach to parametric modelling of a WTP distribution, by considering a wide range of parametric model specifications. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach using databases from two large CV studies: the eutrophication reduction valuation for the Baltic Sea Action Plan and the Deepwater Horizon natural resource damage assessment. We find non-negligible differences in WTP value estimates across models with different assumed parametric distributions, and we observe the variation in the values to decrease when only better-fitting models are considered. This emphasizes the need for cautiously identifying the model best fitting to the data, instead of choosing a specification ad hoc without taking into account alternative parametric distributions. Focusing on the best-fitting parametric specifications, we provide alternative WTP value estimates for the two empirical cases studied.


Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawojska Ewa, Meade Norman, Seroa da Motta Ronaldo, Welsh Mike, Arigoni Ortiz Ramon
contingent valuation parametric modelling stated preferences willingness to pay welfare estimates

WP(4/2018)263. A New Baseline Model for Estimating Willingness to Pay from Discrete Choice Models

Autorzy: Carson Richard T., Czajkowski Mikołaj
We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to always be infinity. A…

WP263. A New Baseline Model for Estimating Willingness to Pay from Discrete Choice Models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to always be infinity. A variant of this problem has long been recognized for mixed logit models. We show it occurs even in simple models like the conditional logit used as a baseline reference specification. It occurs because the standard error for the cost parameter implies some possibility that the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the coefficient of the (negative) cost variable to enforce the theoretically correct (and empirically almost always found) positive coefficient using an exponential transformation of the original parameter. This reparameterization enforces the desired restriction that no-part of the confidence region for original cost parameter spans zero. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved. Our proposed model is straightforward to implement using readily available software. Its log-likelihood value is the same as the usual baseline discrete choice model and we recommend its use as the new standard baseline reference model.


DOI: http://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/263/004
Carson Richard T., Czajkowski Mikołaj
conditional logit confidence intervals contingent valuation delta method discrete choice experiment Krinsky-Robb multinomial logit probit welfare measures
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