Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: [jxe6G\c5TmOZz?htvU-drkuNS^]#[SZkQz2DTqESBN73WZ!K!mXPkWDK

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 6

WP(32/2026)526. Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Autorzy: Kurowska Anna, Grabowska Magdalena, Świtała Maciej, Osiewalska Beata
While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), …

WP526. Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), we apply theory-guided machine learning to evaluate a broad set of individual, employment, partnership, and family characteristics. Because short-term fertility intentions prove most predictive of childbearing, we model both actual births and firm positive intentions using random forest. The pandemic-trained model retained strong post-pandemic predictive performance (AUC-ROC = 0.86), demonstrating that pandemic-era drivers remain informative. Childbearing and intentions shared 16 of their top 20 predictors, highlighting common relational, demographic, and work–family factors. Relationship satisfaction, work–life balance, and domestic work division were particularly prominent, whereas prolonged school and childcare closures lowered predicted probabilities for both outcomes among parents. Ultimately, post-pandemic fertility dynamics reflect persistent constraints embedded in everyday family and working lives.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.32.526
Kurowska Anna, Grabowska Magdalena, Świtała Maciej, Osiewalska Beata
childbearing fertility intentions COVID-19 pandemic machine learning relationship satisfaction childcare closures

WP(22/2023)429. Framing-induced emotions affect performance in simple cognitive tasks under risk

Autorzy: Rachubik Joanna
In this study, we investigated how performance in a number of puzzles (decisions under risk) depended on the framing. The puzzles, drawn and adapted from existing literature, were designed to expose well-established cognitive biases could lead respon…

WP429. Framing-induced emotions affect performance in simple cognitive tasks under risk

In this study, we investigated how performance in a number of puzzles (decisions under risk) depended on the framing. The puzzles, drawn and adapted from existing literature, were designed to expose well-established cognitive biases could lead respondents to select intuitive yet incorrect answer. Subjects were randomly assigned to one of three treatments: a third of the sample saw puzzles framed in terms of COVID-19, another third about a common cold, and the remaining group about unemployment. Across five continents, we collected over 8,000 observations. We found that framing of the puzzles affected performance, prompting questions regarding the external validity of these puzzles. Treatments associated with more severe threats, such as COVID and Unemployment, elicited stronger (negative) emotions compared to the common cold. Moreover, these emotional reactions were also linked to performance, and their levels correlated negatively with the number of correctly solved puzzles.


Rachubik Joanna
decision-making under risk framing emotions cognitive biases cognitive tasks COVID-19

WP(22/2022)398. Working from home during Covid-19 pandemic and changes to fertility intentions among parents

Autorzy: Kurowska Anna, Matysiak Anna, Osiewalska Beata
The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs. On the o…

WP398. Working from home during Covid-19 pandemic and changes to fertility intentions among parents

The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs. On the other, it led to blurred boundaries between work and family life during lockdowns. We investigate how working from home was related to change in fertility intentions of mothers and fathers during the pandemic and discuss the complex mechanisms behind these relationships. With the use of unique Familydemic Survey data for Poland, we estimate multinomial logit regressions and consider a set of potential moderators. We find evidence for an overall negative relationship between home based work and fertility intentions for mothers and fathers, but we also uncover some positive moderating effects. In particular, we shed light on the unexpected moderating role of gendered division of unpaid labor from before the pandemic. 


Kurowska Anna, Matysiak Anna, Osiewalska Beata
fertility intentions childbearing decisions Covid-19 pandemic coronavirus pandemic working from home telecommuting telework home based work work-family reconciliation work-family conflict parents gender relations division of unpaid work

WP(26/2021)374. The Great Lockdown: information, noise and macroeconomic fluctuations

Autorzy: Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Wesołowski Grzegorz
This paper argues that not only actual lockdowns can affect economies, but also noisy information about them. We construct a New Keynesian model with imperfect information about how long the lockdown would last. On the one hand, a false signal about …

WP374. The Great Lockdown: information, noise and macroeconomic fluctuations

This paper argues that not only actual lockdowns can affect economies, but also noisy information about them. We construct a New Keynesian model with imperfect information about how long the lockdown would last. On the one hand, a false signal about the lockdown lowers consumption, investment, employment and output and this effect can be quantitatively sizable. On the other hand, a true information about a lockdown being introduced can also be misinterpreted and hence cause an impact on agents' decisions being quantitatively different from the one desired by the authorities. To the extent that the latter have less noisy information about future lockdowns than the private sector, they can reduce these undesired fluctuations by precisely communicating the lockdown policy. Importantly, under some circumstances only radical improvements in information precision are successful.


Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Wesołowski Grzegorz
Covid-19 lockdown imperfect information communication

WP(7/2021)355. Persuasive messages will not raise COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. Evidence from a nation-wide online experiment

Autorzy: Kachurka Roman, Krawczyk Michał, Rachubik Joanna
Although mass vaccination is the best way out of the pandemic, the share of sceptics is very substantial in most countries. Social campaigns can emphasize the many arguments that potentially raise acceptance for vaccines: e.g., that they have been de…

WP355. Persuasive messages will not raise COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. Evidence from a nation-wide online experiment

Although mass vaccination is the best way out of the pandemic, the share of sceptics is very substantial in most countries. Social campaigns can emphasize the many arguments that potentially raise acceptance for vaccines: e.g., that they have been developed, tested, and recommended by doctors and scientists; that they are safe, effective and in demand. We verified the effectiveness of such messages in an online experiment conducted in February and March 2021 with a sample of almost six thousand adult Poles, which was nationally representative in terms of key demographic variables. We presented responders with different sets of information about vaccination against COVID-19. After reading the information bundle, they indicated whether they would be willing to be vaccinated. We also asked them to justify their answers and indicate who or what might change their opinion. Finally, we elicited a number of individual characteristics and opinions. We found that nearly 45% of the responders were unwilling to be vaccinated and none of the popular messages we used was effective in reducing this hesitancy. We also observed a number of significant correlates of vaccination attitudes, with men, older, richer, and non-religious individuals, those with higher education, trusting science rather than COVID-19 conspiracy theories being more willing to be vaccinated. We discuss important consequences for campaigns aimed at reducing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.


Kachurka Roman, Krawczyk Michał, Rachubik Joanna
COVID-19 vaccine refusal vaccination hesitancy persuasion

WP(36/2020)342. Home advantage revisited. Did COVID level the playing fields?

Autorzy: Krawczyk Michał, Strawiński Paweł
The COVID-19 pandemic swept fans out of the stadiums, but matches continued to be played in most major leagues. We make use of this natural experiment to investigate if home-field advantage disappears when the home team is not supported by the audien…

WP342. Home advantage revisited. Did COVID level the playing fields?

The COVID-19 pandemic swept fans out of the stadiums, but matches continued to be played in most major leagues. We make use of this natural experiment to investigate if home-field advantage disappears when the home team is not supported by the audience. Focusing on four top European soccer leagues, we find such an effect in the Bundesliga only. We propose this singularity may be related to the special role that the fan associations play in German football.


Krawczyk Michał, Strawiński Paweł
soccer home-field advantage COVID-19 fans
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