Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: c5DNRX-hEP?psOVw8xk!=~H743a]#[[!368GoY}A{cgfNfx%awGd&-A~N

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 32

WP(27/2026)521. What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Autorzy: Jusypenko Bartosz
Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respond…

WP521. What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respondents to consider potential heritage loss affects stated willingness to pay (WTP) for renovation of a building and whether the contribution of information about adaptive reuse depends on whether such loss enters the valuation decision. A contingent valuation survey of 452 adult residents living near Pückler Palace, a deteriorating historic building in Poland, used a 2 × 2 randomized design combining a loss-consideration prompt with information about a genuine proposal to adapt the renovated palace as the new premises of the Museum of Ceramics. WTP was elicited as the maximum mandatory one-off levy respondents would support within an advisory-referendum framework. Among respondents not assigned to the loss-prompt treatment, a post-valuation question identified spontaneous consideration of heritage loss. Two-part models separated the probability of positive WTP from the amount stated among positive responses. Randomized treatment estimates indicated higher WTP under the loss prompt when reuse information was absent. The unconditional mean difference was positive but imprecisely estimated, while the corresponding difference among positive-WTP respondents was statistically significant. In the conditional models, respondents assigned to the loss prompt had approximately twice the odds of positive WTP and a 61% higher conditional geometric mean of positive WTP than that of unprompted respondents who did not report spontaneous loss consideration. Among unprompted respondents, spontaneous loss consideration—reported by 54%—was associated with a 92% higher conditional geometric mean of positive WTP than in unprompted respondents who did not report such consideration. Evidence that reuse information contributed more when loss was not considered was suggestive rather than conclusive. The findings show that common information about an asset’s current condition need not produce a common understanding of its expected future without the proposed intervention. Stated preference surveys should therefore specify this trajectory with sufficient clarity and credibility that respondents are evaluating a common underlying policy change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.27.521
Jusypenko Bartosz
cultural heritage historic preservation adaptive reuse contingent valuation stated preferences prospect of loss

WP(4/2026)498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

Autorzy: Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuat…

WP498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuation double-bounded dichotomous choice and an open-ended follow-up, we elicit individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. In a randomized design, we varied the cost attribute across three cost range treatments and manipulated information disclosure and feedback to examine three behavioral phenomena: cost vector effects (whether the range of costs presented affects WTP), scope insensitivity (whether WTP scales appropriately with the magnitude of the risk reduction), and anchoring (whether initial cost cues affect subsequent responses). Our results show that mean VSL estimates can vary by up to ~25% between cost treatments. Furthermore, WTP responses exhibit partial scope insensitivity – larger risk reductions do not proportionally increase WTP – indicating a deviation from theoretical expectations. Importantly, we find no strong evidence of anchoring: neither revealing all attribute levels upfront, nor starting with extreme cost levels, nor providing feedback on quiz questions significantly affected respondents’ choices or WTP. Our findings underscore the need for careful survey design. Even if VSL distributions remain statistically similar across cost frames, substantial shifts in mean magnitudes could be consequential for policy. We call for standardized guidelines on cost attribute selection and survey protocols to mitigate bias, ensuring that stated preference methods yield reliable welfare estimates for health policy decisions.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.4.498
Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
value of statistical life (VSL) stated preference (SP) contingent valuation (CV) behavioral biases anchoring effect scope insensitivity discrete choice experiment (DCE) willingness to pay (WTP) mortality risk reduction cardiovascular diseases

WP(15/2024)451. Assessing the Substitutability of Mobile and Fixed Internet: The Impact of 5G Services on Consumer Valuation and Price Elasticity

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Grzegorz Bernatek, Maciej Sobolewski
In this study, we explore the dynamics of consumer choices in the Polish telecommunications market, focusing on preferences and valuations for home fixed, home mobile, and purely mobile internet connections. Key attributes such as speed, latency, dat…

WP451. Assessing the Substitutability of Mobile and Fixed Internet: The Impact of 5G Services on Consumer Valuation and Price Elasticity

In this study, we explore the dynamics of consumer choices in the Polish telecommunications market, focusing on preferences and valuations for home fixed, home mobile, and purely mobile internet connections. Key attributes such as speed, latency, data limits, and cost are examined. Central to our research is the investigation of how the integration of 5G technology might influence demand elasticity. Using a detailed discrete choice experiment, we apply a mixed logit model with random parameters to analyze stated choice data, enabling us to unravel the complexities of demand elasticity, especially in terms of own- and cross-price elasticities. This approach facilitates an assessment of the degree of substitutability between fixed and mobile internet services.
Our findings indicate a moderate substitution effect between fixed and mobile internet services. Results from a Small but Significant and Non-transitory Increase in Price (SSNIP) test suggest that these markets should continue to be regulated separately, mirroring the distinct regulation observed in fixed and mobile telephony. Furthermore, simulations provide insights into potential future market shifts with the advent of 5G services. This paper contributes significantly to the discourse on fixed-mobile internet substitution and offers vital insights for defining markets in antitrust discussions, competitive agreements, and potential mergers within the telecom sector.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2024.15.451
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Grzegorz Bernatek, Maciej Sobolewski
Fixed-Mobile Internet Substitution Consumer Preferences in Telecommunications Mobile Broadband Access Home Internet Connectivity Discrete Choice Analysis 5G Network Impact Demand Elasticity in Internet Services Stated Preference Methodology Telecommunications Market Analysis Price Elasticity in Internet Access

WP(9/2023)416. Is international free-riding immanent to transboundary spatial conservation?

Autorzy: Valasiuk Sviataslau
Despite their recent global expansion in nominal terms, many transboundary nature protected areas tend to avoid hands-on cross-border co-operation. One common explanation which is widely seen a major obstacle towards the concerted transboundary conse…

WP416. Is international free-riding immanent to transboundary spatial conservation?

Despite their recent global expansion in nominal terms, many transboundary nature protected areas tend to avoid hands-on cross-border co-operation. One common explanation which is widely seen a major obstacle towards the concerted transboundary conservation is international free riding on the centralised decision-making level. I examine empirically whether international free-riding is embedded in citizens’ stated preferences for extended protection in the case of two transboundary nature protected areas Białowieża Forest and Fulufjället. I scrutinise a sub-set of merged survey samples from the four countries involved, including only the citizens assumingly incentivised to free-ride on unilateral foreign country’s conservation action. I apply attitudinal indicators to form effect-coded variables that measure free-riding, and control for use value, nationality, individual socioeconomic characteristics, and incentive compatibility of the survey design. The results indicate no widespread tendency of international free-riding; the conclusion is maintained with varying modelling approaches or sampling strategy employed.


Valasiuk Sviataslau
transboundary nature protected areas stated preferences public good free-riding binary logit negative binomial regression

WP(20/2022)396. Anomalies or Expected Behaviors? Understanding Stated Preferences and Welfare Implications in Light of Contemporary Behavioral Theory

Autorzy: Lades Leonhard K., Zawojska Ewa, Johnston Robert J., Hanley Nick, Delaney Liam, Czajkowski Mikołaj
The stated preference literature contains an expansive body of research on behavioral anomalies, typically understood as response patterns that are inconsistent with standard neoclassical choice theory. While the literature often implies that anomalo…

WP396. Anomalies or Expected Behaviors? Understanding Stated Preferences and Welfare Implications in Light of Contemporary Behavioral Theory

The stated preference literature contains an expansive body of research on behavioral anomalies, typically understood as response patterns that are inconsistent with standard neoclassical choice theory. While the literature often implies that anomalous behaviors are distinct to stated preferences, widespread evidence of similar patterns across real-world settings raises the potential for an alternative interpretation. We argue that these anomalies might actually reflect behaviors that are to be expected once deviations from the standard economic model and behavioral reactions to the choice architecture in stated preference surveys are considered. The article reviews and organizes the evidence of so-called “anomalous” stated preference behaviors within the context of behavioral science to provide guidance for applied welfare economics. We coordinate evidence on these anomalies using a typology grounded in behavioral science, which groups non-standard behaviors into: non-standard preferences, non-standard beliefs, and non-standard decision-making. We apply this typology to organize the evidence, clarify nomenclature, and understand the implications of non-standard behaviors in stated preference studies for applied welfare analysis. Observing the systematic and common nature of these behaviors in actual and hypothetical settings, we outline possibilities to overcome associated challenges for applied welfare analysis, by adapting new frameworks for welfare analysis proposed within behavioral science.


Lades Leonhard K., Zawojska Ewa, Johnston Robert J., Hanley Nick, Delaney Liam, Czajkowski Mikołaj
anomalies behavioral science non-standard behaviors stated preferences welfare analysis

WP(8/2022)384. On the inference about willingness to pay distribution using contingent valuation data

Autorzy: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawojska Ewa, Meade Norman, Seroa da Motta Ronaldo, Welsh Mike, Arigoni Ortiz Ramon
Although contingent valuation (CV) is one of the main sources of estimates of non-market values of environmental goods, little guidance exists regarding parametric approaches for modelling CV data, which would reliably estimate willingness-to-pay (WT…

WP384. On the inference about willingness to pay distribution using contingent valuation data

Although contingent valuation (CV) is one of the main sources of estimates of non-market values of environmental goods, little guidance exists regarding parametric approaches for modelling CV data, which would reliably estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values based on binary choice, payment card or open-ended preference elicitation data, among others. CV studies often rely on relatively simple approaches to modeling stated preference responses, without examining alternative modelling specifications. Lower-bound, non-parametric estimates seem to be preferred in legal cases, while studies that apply parametric approaches often select a specification among a limited set of commonly used distributions. To enhance the reliability of CV-based WTP estimates, we propose to adopt a more flexible approach to parametric modelling of a WTP distribution, by considering a wide range of parametric model specifications. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach using databases from two large CV studies: the eutrophication reduction valuation for the Baltic Sea Action Plan and the Deepwater Horizon natural resource damage assessment. We find non-negligible differences in WTP value estimates across models with different assumed parametric distributions, and we observe the variation in the values to decrease when only better-fitting models are considered. This emphasizes the need for cautiously identifying the model best fitting to the data, instead of choosing a specification ad hoc without taking into account alternative parametric distributions. Focusing on the best-fitting parametric specifications, we provide alternative WTP value estimates for the two empirical cases studied.


Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawojska Ewa, Meade Norman, Seroa da Motta Ronaldo, Welsh Mike, Arigoni Ortiz Ramon
contingent valuation parametric modelling stated preferences willingness to pay welfare estimates

WP(5/2022)381. Do numerical probabilities promote informed stated preference responses under inherent uncertainty? Insight from a coastal adaptation choice experiment

Autorzy: Makriyannis Christos, Johnston Robert J., Zawojska Ewa
Inherent outcome uncertainty within stated preference surveys is invariant across valuation scenarios. It has received relatively little attention in the environmental stated preference literature. Specifically, it is unknown whether percentage proba…

WP381. Do numerical probabilities promote informed stated preference responses under inherent uncertainty? Insight from a coastal adaptation choice experiment

Inherent outcome uncertainty within stated preference surveys is invariant across valuation scenarios. It has received relatively little attention in the environmental stated preference literature. Specifically, it is unknown whether percentage probabilities—a ubiquitous means of communicating uncertainty in questionnaires—are an effective risk communication tool. This article systematically evaluates two treatments in a discrete choice experiment survey related to coastal climate change adaptation in Connecticut, USA: one provides only raw frequencies as a risk communication tool, while the other provides implied numerical probabilities in addition to the same raw frequencies. Results from a mixed logit model and from a latent class model that controls for sociodemographic influences show that the use of percentage probabilities to communicate inherent uncertainty has no additional effect on average welfare estimates or the choice behavior of respondents. Our findings suggest that percentage probabilities may not be an impactful way to communicate inherent uncertainty in environmental stated preference questionnaires.


Makriyannis Christos, Johnston Robert J., Zawojska Ewa
flood adaptation inherent uncertainty discrete choice experiment stated preference mixed logit risk communication WTP-space

WP(4/2022)380. Incentivizing stated preference elicitation with choice-matching in the field

Autorzy: Zawojska Ewa, Krawczyk Michał
Stated preferences should ideally be elicited in ways providing respondents with economic incentives to report them truthfully—that is, in incentive-compatible conditions. This study aims at testing empirically a novel theoretical approach, whi…

WP380. Incentivizing stated preference elicitation with choice-matching in the field

Stated preferences should ideally be elicited in ways providing respondents with economic incentives to report them truthfully—that is, in incentive-compatible conditions. This study aims at testing empirically a novel theoretical approach, which allows for incentive-compatible elicitation of preferences. Choice-matching, proposed by Cvitanić et al. (2019), is applied here to elicit stated preferences towards a public good. While the approach has been originally designed for incentivizing responses to a multiple choice question, we illustrate its possible application to an open-ended question. We conduct an online experiment mirroring a standard stated preference survey as used for valuation of public goods. Two versions of the survey questionnaire are implemented: one employing the incentive-compatible choice-matching approach and another representing a common non-incentivized setting. We find that the open-ended willingness-to-pay values are statistically significantly higher when stated under choice-matching than when expressed in the non-incentivized conditions.


Zawojska Ewa, Krawczyk Michał
contingent valuation choice-matching incentive compatibility open-ended elicitation stated preferences

WP(26/2020)332. Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health

Autorzy: Decker Catherine, Hanley Nick, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Morrison Thomas A., Keyyu Julius, Munishi Linus, Lankester Felix, Cleaveland Sarah
Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), transmitted from wildebeest to cattle, threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but thi…

WP332. Predicting uptake of a malignant catarrhal fever vaccine by pastoralists in northern Tanzania: opportunities for improving livelihoods and ecosystem health

Malignant Catarhal Fever (MCF), transmitted from wildebeest to cattle, threatens livestock-based livelihoods and food security in many areas of Africa. Many herd owners reduce transmission risks by moving cattle away from infection hot-spots, but this imposes considerable economic burdens on their households. The advent of a partially-protective vaccine for cattle opens up new options for disease prevention. In a study of pastoral households in northern Tanzania, we use stated preference choice modelling to investigate how pastoralists would likely respond to the availability of such a vaccine. We show a high probability of likely vaccine uptake by herd owners, declining at higher vaccine costs. Acceptance increases with more efficaceous vaccines, in situations where vaccinated cattle are ear-tagged, and where vaccine is delivered through private vets. Through analysis Normalized Density Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we show that the reported MCF incidence over 5 years is highest in areas with greatest NDVI variability and in smaller herds. Trends towards greater rainfall variability suggest that MCF avoidance through traditional movement of cattle away from wildebeest will become more challenging and that demand for an MCF vaccine will likely increase.


Decker Catherine, Hanley Nick, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Morrison Thomas A., Keyyu Julius, Munishi Linus, Lankester Felix, Cleaveland Sarah
vaccine cattle Malignant Catarhal Fever Tanzania stated preference choice modelling wilingness to pay

WP(11/2020)317. Supplier selection in emerging market economies: a discrete choice analysis

Autorzy: Manucharyan Hayk
This study presents the perceived importance of different supplier attributes for managers' choice of suppliers in emerging market economies. We analyze the supplier selection process based on multiple attributes categorized into six groups: qual…

WP317. Supplier selection in emerging market economies: a discrete choice analysis

This study presents the perceived importance of different supplier attributes for managers' choice of suppliers in emerging market economies. We analyze the supplier selection process based on multiple attributes categorized into six groups: quality, cost, delivery, product, service, and business. Empirical data for this study was collected from 163 corporate executives in the automotive and fast-moving consumer goods industries operating in Poland and India.
A two-part survey was conducted; the first part consisted of a Likert scale set of questions aimed at determining the perceived importance of supplier attributes. The second part of the survey was a discrete choice experiment that examined the actual choices of experimental supplier profiles made by executives. Comparing our results to previous works in this domain, we find that the importance of the cost attribute has decreased over the past two decades, whereas the relevance of delivery and product has increased. Each of the six supplier attributes was broken down into sub-attributes, which provided us with an insight into the decision-making process. The results indicate that with respect to delivery, delivery lead time, responsiveness to demand fluctuations, and compliance with due date had a significant effect on executives' decisions. At the same time, new product availability and product range played crucial role amongst product attributes. Finally, the dataset was split into different sub-groups, based on the two industries and two countries analyzed, to examine industrial and cultural differences.


Manucharyan Hayk
supplier selection vendor selection purchasing supply chain management conjoint analysis stated preferences discrete choice experiment