Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

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Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 18

WP(38/2026)532. The Digital Shift: Working From Home and the Educational Gradient in Fertility Rates

Autorzy: Osiewalska Beata, Neels Karel, Matysiak Anna
The expansion of working from home (WFH) has transformed paid work, but access to remote-workable jobs remains strongly stratified by education. We examine how regional WFH availability is associated with fertility among women with different educatio…

WP532. The Digital Shift: Working From Home and the Educational Gradient in Fertility Rates

The expansion of working from home (WFH) has transformed paid work, but access to remote-workable jobs remains strongly stratified by education. We examine how regional WFH availability is associated with fertility among women with different educational levels in Belgium. We link Belgian population register data (2001–2019) with regional WFH indicators from the Labour Force Survey and estimate discrete-time birth hazards, followed by microsimulation of aggregate fertility patterns. Higher WFH availability is associated with lower first-birth risks at younger ages across educational groups, with later recuperation only among highly educated women. For second and higher-order births, WFH availability is generally associated with higher birth risks, especially among the highly educated. Microsimulation shows that these parity-specific associations produce only modest changes in total fertility and the educational gradient. WFH therefore appears less as a universal reconciliation resource than as a stratified labour-market change with parity-specific fertility implications.


Osiewalska Beata, Neels Karel, Matysiak Anna
working from home remote work fertility educational gradient parity progression microsimulation register data Belgium

WP(35/2026)529. When Work Moves Home: Fertility Responses to Working from Home in Europe

Autorzy: Osiewalska Beata, Matysiak Anna
This study examines the role of working from home (WFH) in shaping fertility across Austria, France, and Poland. While WFH can enhance flexibility and facilitate work–family reconciliation, it may also blur boundaries and intensify work demands…

WP529. When Work Moves Home: Fertility Responses to Working from Home in Europe

This study examines the role of working from home (WFH) in shaping fertility across Austria, France, and Poland. While WFH can enhance flexibility and facilitate work–family reconciliation, it may also blur boundaries and intensify work demands, with ambiguous implications for childbearing. Using longitudinal Labour Force Survey (2006–2023), we estimate hazard models of first and subsequent births, distinguishing women’s and men’s on-site work, occasional and usual WFH, self-employment, and non-employment, as well as their couple-level configurations. The association between WFH and fertility is strongly context-, gender-, and parity-specific. For first births, women’s WFH is positively associated with entry into parenthood in France and Austria, but negatively in Poland, particularly when combined with temporary employment. For subsequent births, women’s WFH is linked to higher birth risks in France and Austria, whereas in Poland, this pattern appears only when she works from home and he works on-site. Men’s WFH shows little association with fertility. These findings highlight that WFH operates as both a resource and a strain: supportive policies and secure employment can turn WFH into a facilitator of family formation, whereas their absence may transform it into a source of constraint and inequality.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.35.529
Osiewalska Beata, Matysiak Anna
work from home flexible work fertility couples Europe

WP(34/2026)528. Job Stressors, Self-Reported Stress, and Childbearing Decisions: A Longitudinal Study of Working Women in Germany

Autorzy: Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
Occupational stressors are linked to workers' subjective stress and major life decisions, such as job change, but their role in fertility transitions is unclear. This study examines whether objective occupational stressors and self-reported stres…

WP528. Job Stressors, Self-Reported Stress, and Childbearing Decisions: A Longitudinal Study of Working Women in Germany

Occupational stressors are linked to workers' subjective stress and major life decisions, such as job change, but their role in fertility transitions is unclear. This study examines whether objective occupational stressors and self-reported stress jointly shape childbearing among employed women in Germany. We test two competing hypotheses: women either exit taxing jobs by redirecting resources to family life, or preserve occupational resources by delaying or foregoing childbirth. We combine occupation-level stressor measures from the German BIBB/BAuA Employment Survey with data on 4,205 women from the 2011–2021 German Family Panel (Pairfam). Mixed-effects logistic regression models are applied by parity and adjusted for confounders. Among mothers, high stressors and self-reported stress were linked to a higher likelihood of pregnancy, supporting the exit hypothesis. Among childless women, associations were weaker and limited to psychosocial stressors. The stress-fertility link depends on women's subjective stress appraisal and parity, not only on objective job characteristics.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.34.528
Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
fertility work-life balance job exposure matrix self-reported stress

WP(32/2026)526. Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Autorzy: Kurowska Anna, Grabowska Magdalena, Świtała Maciej, Osiewalska Beata
While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), …

WP526. Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), we apply theory-guided machine learning to evaluate a broad set of individual, employment, partnership, and family characteristics. Because short-term fertility intentions prove most predictive of childbearing, we model both actual births and firm positive intentions using random forest. The pandemic-trained model retained strong post-pandemic predictive performance (AUC-ROC = 0.86), demonstrating that pandemic-era drivers remain informative. Childbearing and intentions shared 16 of their top 20 predictors, highlighting common relational, demographic, and work–family factors. Relationship satisfaction, work–life balance, and domestic work division were particularly prominent, whereas prolonged school and childcare closures lowered predicted probabilities for both outcomes among parents. Ultimately, post-pandemic fertility dynamics reflect persistent constraints embedded in everyday family and working lives.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.32.526
Kurowska Anna, Grabowska Magdalena, Świtała Maciej, Osiewalska Beata
childbearing fertility intentions COVID-19 pandemic machine learning relationship satisfaction childcare closures

WP(17/2026)511. When Politics Enters the Family: Electoral Outcomes and Fertility in the United Kingdom

Autorzy: Baszczak Łukasz, Weychert Ewa
This paper examines the relationship between political outcomes and fertility behavior by linking electoral results with individual-level fertility outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing and the narrative decision-making framework (Vignoli et al., 2…

WP511. When Politics Enters the Family: Electoral Outcomes and Fertility in the United Kingdom

This paper examines the relationship between political outcomes and fertility behavior by linking electoral results with individual-level fertility outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing and the narrative decision-making framework (Vignoli et al., 2020; Johnson, Bilovich, & Tuckett, 2023) and the role of political polarization in fertility outcomes (Dahl et al. 2022) it considers how alignment between one’s political preferences and the actual party in power shapes fertility behaviour. Specifically, the study tests whether this alignment increases the probability of a first birth using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) over the period 1991–2020. We derive the month of conception from respondents’ birth histories and combine this information with measures of their political preferences (extrapolated to account for every month in the studied period). The results of a complementary log-log model indicate that the probability of conception is higher when an individual’s preferred party is in government.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.17.511
Baszczak Łukasz, Weychert Ewa
fertility uncertainty narrative decision theory voting behavior United Kingdom

WP(11/2026)505. Climate change narratives and first births in the UK

Autorzy: Weychert Ewa, Vignoli Daniele, Matysiak Anna, Celińska-Kopczyńska Dorota
This study investigates how climate news exposure relates to first-birth outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing on theories of imagined futures, individualized political engagement, and eco-anxiety, we examine whether and how exposure to climate-rel…

WP505. Climate change narratives and first births in the UK

This study investigates how climate news exposure relates to first-birth outcomes in the United Kingdom. Drawing on theories of imagined futures, individualized political engagement, and eco-anxiety, we examine whether and how exposure to climate-related media coverage is related to fertility behavior. We construct a novel index of climate news coverage using text mining and link it to individual-level longitudinal data from the UK Understanding Society survey. Results show that high exposure to climate news is associated with a lower probability of first birth, but only among individuals who express strong pro-environmental attitudes. In contrast, political identity and perceived long-term climate risk do not significantly moderate this relationship. These findings suggest that climate news coverage, which we use as a proxy for climate change narratives, is associated with fertility in a non-uniform way, shaped by moral and emotional mechanisms linked to current environmental concern. This study highlights the role of media-driven imaginaries in shaping life course decisions and contributes new evidence on the demographic implications of climate change discourse.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.11.505
Weychert Ewa, Vignoli Daniele, Matysiak Anna, Celińska-Kopczyńska Dorota
climate change fertility outcomes text mining

WP(5/2026)499. Technological Change, Labour Markets and Family Behaviours in Sweden

Autorzy: Matysiak Anna, Andersson Linus, Hardy Wojciech
This study examines whether long-term structural labour market change, driven by industrial robotization, has influenced family formation and union stability in Sweden. Linking Swedish population register data (1994–2017) with sector-level meas…

WP499. Technological Change, Labour Markets and Family Behaviours in Sweden

This study examines whether long-term structural labour market change, driven by industrial robotization, has influenced family formation and union stability in Sweden. Linking Swedish population register data (1994–2017) with sector-level measures of robot penetration, we analyse transitions into first marriage, first, second, and third births, and divorce. We distinguish between current exposure to robotization among employed workers and residual exposure among individuals who exited employment in robotizing sectors. Event-history models are complemented by an instrumental-variable approach that exploits cross-national variation in robot adoption to strengthen causal interpretation. On average, we find only weak associations between robotization and family transitions. However, substantial heterogeneity emerges by educational attainment. Among low- and medium-educated women and men, higher exposure to automation is linked to lower birth risks, weaker marriage formation, and higher divorce risks. In contrast, highly educated individuals experience neutral or positive associations between automation and family formation, alongside greater union stability. We conclude that the aggregate contribution of structural labour market change caused by industrial automation to Sweden’s post-recession fertility decline appears limited, automation contributes to widening educational disparities in family trajectories and reinforces cumulative disadvantage across labour market and family domains.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.5.499
Matysiak Anna, Andersson Linus, Hardy Wojciech
labour market technology industrial robots family fertility

WP(1/2026)495. Men’s working-time flexibility and transition to 2nd birth: Evidence for couples in Germany

Autorzy: Kałamucka Agata, Matysiak Anna, Osiewalska Beata
Advances in information and communication technologies have accelerated the diffusion of flexible working-time arrangements, with important implications for work–family reconciliation and fertility. Yet flexible schedules are not uniform. Emplo…

WP495. Men’s working-time flexibility and transition to 2nd birth: Evidence for couples in Germany

Advances in information and communication technologies have accelerated the diffusion of flexible working-time arrangements, with important implications for work–family reconciliation and fertility. Yet flexible schedules are not uniform. Employee-oriented flexibility, which grants workers control over when they work, differs fundamentally from employer-oriented flexibility, characterised by unpredictable hours and employer-driven schedule changes. These forms are unevenly distributed across social groups and may have contrasting consequences for family formation. While previous research has focused largely on women and employee-oriented flexibility, much less is known about how men’s working-time flexibility—particularly employer-oriented forms—shapes fertility behaviour. This paper examines the association between fathers’ working-time flexibility and the transition to a second birth in Germany. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2003–2019 and applying event history analysis, we analyse couples with one child, adopting a couple-level perspective that accounts for mothers’ employment status and schedule flexibility. The results show no overall association between men’s flexible schedules and second births in baseline models. However, important heterogeneity emerges once a couple’s characteristics are considered. Among dual-earner couples, fathers’ employer-oriented working-time flexibility significantly reduces the likelihood of a second birth, particularly when mothers have fixed schedules. In contrast, employee-oriented flexibility is positively associated with second births, but only in male breadwinner couples. Further analyses reveal that these relationships also vary by men’s socio-economic status. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between types of flexibility and considering couple-level contexts when assessing how labour market changes influence fertility.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.1.495
Kałamucka Agata, Matysiak Anna, Osiewalska Beata
working-time flexibility fertility flexible hours Germany GSOEP

WP(29/2025)492. Childbearing in the Knowledge-Based Society: Job-Related Learning Demands and the Transition to Parenthood in Germany

Autorzy: Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
This study investigates the relationship between learning demands at work and the transition to parenthood in Germany. As a consequence of technological progress and intensifying global competition, workplace learning is no longer an optional path to…

WP492. Childbearing in the Knowledge-Based Society: Job-Related Learning Demands and the Transition to Parenthood in Germany

This study investigates the relationship between learning demands at work and the transition to parenthood in Germany. As a consequence of technological progress and intensifying global competition, workplace learning is no longer an optional path to career advancement but has become an essential job demand. Consequently, it absorbs time and energy that could otherwise be devoted to family formation, prompting individuals to postpone childbearing or have fewer children. Yet, the fertility implications of this structural change have not been systematically examined. This study addresses this gap by analysing how job-related high learning demands relate to the transition to the first birth. The results indicate that individuals in jobs with high learning demands, both men and women, tend to delay the transition to the first birth. However, these delays do not appear to preclude them from becoming parents later, suggesting a postponement rather than a withdrawal from parenthood.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.29.492
Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
fertility childbearing learning demands labour market transformation work-family conflict

WP(15/2025)478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting

Autorzy: Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena
Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent att…

WP478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting

Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent attention has shifted to climate change and reproductive rights. This study examines the relative importance of contextual constraints on childbearing intentions among young adults in Poland. Using a factorial survey (N = 1,337), we compare how employment stability, housing affordability, childcare availability, men’s domestic contributions, climate change, and abortion rights shape intentions     to have a first or second child. Results confirm the enduring salience of economic security for fertility intentions across gender and parenthood status. Reproductive autonomy is most influential for childless women and important for mothers and partnered men. Childcare and equitable domestic arrangements support women’s intentions but matter less for men. Climate concerns are less influential. Intentions of childless men appear less responsive overall.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.15.478
Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena
fertility intentions factorial survey experiment economic insecurity reproductive autonomy gender equality childcare availability climate change
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