Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: i5$[H%#O]B'@pv!=~0qAC`&P7DL]#[a!sG.pm@?/h/d3w&d9g5LFhFD15

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(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

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Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 10

WP(5/2026)499. Technological Change, Labour Markets and Family Behaviours in Sweden

Autorzy: Matysiak Anna, Andersson Linus, Hardy Wojciech
This study examines whether long-term structural labour market change, driven by industrial robotization, has influenced family formation and union stability in Sweden. Linking Swedish population register data (1994–2017) with sector-level meas…

WP499. Technological Change, Labour Markets and Family Behaviours in Sweden

This study examines whether long-term structural labour market change, driven by industrial robotization, has influenced family formation and union stability in Sweden. Linking Swedish population register data (1994–2017) with sector-level measures of robot penetration, we analyse transitions into first marriage, first, second, and third births, and divorce. We distinguish between current exposure to robotization among employed workers and residual exposure among individuals who exited employment in robotizing sectors. Event-history models are complemented by an instrumental-variable approach that exploits cross-national variation in robot adoption to strengthen causal interpretation. On average, we find only weak associations between robotization and family transitions. However, substantial heterogeneity emerges by educational attainment. Among low- and medium-educated women and men, higher exposure to automation is linked to lower birth risks, weaker marriage formation, and higher divorce risks. In contrast, highly educated individuals experience neutral or positive associations between automation and family formation, alongside greater union stability. We conclude that the aggregate contribution of structural labour market change caused by industrial automation to Sweden’s post-recession fertility decline appears limited, automation contributes to widening educational disparities in family trajectories and reinforces cumulative disadvantage across labour market and family domains.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.5.499
Matysiak Anna, Andersson Linus, Hardy Wojciech
labour market technology industrial robots family fertility

WP(29/2025)492. Childbearing in the Knowledge-Based Society: Job-Related Learning Demands and the Transition to Parenthood in Germany

Autorzy: Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
This study investigates the relationship between learning demands at work and the transition to parenthood in Germany. As a consequence of technological progress and intensifying global competition, workplace learning is no longer an optional path to…

WP492. Childbearing in the Knowledge-Based Society: Job-Related Learning Demands and the Transition to Parenthood in Germany

This study investigates the relationship between learning demands at work and the transition to parenthood in Germany. As a consequence of technological progress and intensifying global competition, workplace learning is no longer an optional path to career advancement but has become an essential job demand. Consequently, it absorbs time and energy that could otherwise be devoted to family formation, prompting individuals to postpone childbearing or have fewer children. Yet, the fertility implications of this structural change have not been systematically examined. This study addresses this gap by analysing how job-related high learning demands relate to the transition to the first birth. The results indicate that individuals in jobs with high learning demands, both men and women, tend to delay the transition to the first birth. However, these delays do not appear to preclude them from becoming parents later, suggesting a postponement rather than a withdrawal from parenthood.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.29.492
Luo Chen, Jarosz Ewa, Matysiak Anna
fertility childbearing learning demands labour market transformation work-family conflict

WP(8/2023)415. Structural Labour Market Change, Cognitive Work, and Fertility in Germany

Autorzy: Bogusz Honorata, Matysiak Anna, Kreyenfeld Michaela
Technological change and globalisation have been transforming the structure of labour demand in favour of workers performing cognitive tasks. Even though past research has found that labour force participation is an important determinant of fertility…

WP415. Structural Labour Market Change, Cognitive Work, and Fertility in Germany

Technological change and globalisation have been transforming the structure of labour demand in favour of workers performing cognitive tasks. Even though past research has found that labour force participation is an important determinant of fertility behaviour, few studies have addressed the fertility effects of the long-term structural changes of labour market. To fill this gap, we measure the cognitive task content of work at the occupation level using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BiBB). We link this contextual information with employment and fertility histories of women and men from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2018 (GSOEP). With event history models, we find that fertility transitions of men working in occupations characterised by high cognitive task intensity are accelerated. We also observe elevated birth risks among women in occupations requiring cognitive labour. However, this pattern is more ambiguous, as we find that non-working women also experience elevated birth rates.


Bogusz Honorata, Matysiak Anna, Kreyenfeld Michaela
structural labour market change cognitive work task content of work fertility Germany

WP(17/2022)393. Generalisation of the gross flows model

Autorzy: Penconek Marcin, Strawiński Paweł
In this study, we generalise Shimer's (2012) gross ow model in three directions using the Perron-Frobenius theorem. While the seminal work of Shimer (2012) analysed a labour market model with dynamic gross flows, three states of the economy, and …

WP393. Generalisation of the gross flows model

In this study, we generalise Shimer's (2012) gross ow model in three directions using the Perron-Frobenius theorem. While the seminal work of Shimer (2012) analysed a labour market model with dynamic gross flows, three states of the economy, and stable population, our generalised model allows for considering more than three states of the economy, allows the size of the economy to change over time, and generalises the process of calculating steady states from empirical data. Our model provides a theoretical background for similar dynamic problems. 


Penconek Marcin, Strawiński Paweł
dynamic market model Perron-Frobenius theorem worker flows labour market status

WP(23/2017)252. The output employment elasticity and the increased use of temporary contracts: evidence from Poland

Autorzy: Bartosik Krzysztof, Mycielski Jerzy
The paper investigates how increased use of temporary contracts has affected employment elasticity with respect to output in Poland. Our empirical analysis covers the period of 1996-2016, with particular focus on the years 2001-2016. Several economet…

WP252. The output employment elasticity and the increased use of temporary contracts: evidence from Poland

The paper investigates how increased use of temporary contracts has affected employment elasticity with respect to output in Poland. Our empirical analysis covers the period of 1996-2016, with particular focus on the years 2001-2016. Several econometric tools are used to explore the relation between growth in GDP and employment. Our study shows that widespread adoption of temporary contracts contributes positively to total employment elasticity. However, what we have observed is that the share of temporary contracts has increased, but the total employment elasticity has decreased. We related this to an inverse relationship between the growth of permanent and temporary employment and the opposite trends in output elasticities of temporary and permanent employment.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/252/023
Bartosik Krzysztof, Mycielski Jerzy
labour demand temporary contracts economic growth labour market institutions

WP(40/2015)188. Regional differences in gender wage gaps in Poland

Autorzy: Majchrowska Aleksandra, Strawiński Paweł
The paper aims to estimate the adjusted gender wage gaps in Poland and in each of the 16 NUTS2 Polish regions using the new harmonised dataset of wages of individuals in 2010. The results show that the total gender wage gap in Poland, estimated with …

WP188. Regional differences in gender wage gaps in Poland

The paper aims to estimate the adjusted gender wage gaps in Poland and in each of the 16 NUTS2 Polish regions using the new harmonised dataset of wages of individuals in 2010. The results show that the total gender wage gap in Poland, estimated with new dataset, amounts to 15.7% and indicate that the previous estimates based on the Polish Labour Force Survey data are upward biased and the estimates based on the Structure of Wages and Salaries data are downward biased. Moreover, the authors show that part of the differences in wages between men and women in Poland is due to differences in the employment structure. Gender wage gap corrected for the segregation bias decreases to 14.3%. There is significant variation among regions – estimates of corrected gender wage gap vary from 24% in Opolskie to 1% in Swietokrzyskie region. The differences in gender wage gap across regions are mainly due to different employment structure by ownership sector and occupational groups.


Majchrowska Aleksandra, Strawiński Paweł
gender wage gap Poland regional labour markets

WP(28/2014)145. Can We Really Explain Worker Flows in Transition Economies?

Autorzy: Tyrowicz Joanna, van der Velde Lucas Augusto
This paper employs a new rich source of data on worker reallocation in transition economies and provides a decomposition of the aggregate changes into those attributable to sectoral reallocation, those attributable to transition per se and those attr…

WP145. Can We Really Explain Worker Flows in Transition Economies?

This paper employs a new rich source of data on worker reallocation in transition economies and provides a decomposition of the aggregate changes into those attributable to sectoral reallocation, those attributable to transition per se and those attributable to demographics. Aghion and Blanchard (1994) provide a theoretical framework that allows to conceptualize a reallocation from an (implicitly inefficient) public sector to a (more efficient) private sector, which is extremely useful in the analyses of economic transition. However, transition processes are not isolated from global trends such as a shift from industry to services, which is more explicitly tackled in the sectoral reallocation models of Caballero and Hammour (1996, 2001). Finally, there are also demographic processes, which exhibit in labor market exits by people with outdated or no longer necessary skills and in labor market entries by people with possibly better matched competences. The aggregate changes in transition economies are a combination of these three mechanisms. We thus test the validity of Aghion and Blanchard (1994) as well as Caballero and Hammour (1996, 2001) in the context of 26 transition economies over the period 1989-2006. We find that demographics and education can accommodate a fair share of shift from public to private and from manufacturing to services - as opposed to the actual worker flows between jobs. Whether or not this results in reduced employment at the end of the transition process stems not from the wage setting mechanism (such as collective bargaining, indexation, etc.) but rather seems to be related to the policies able to keep older cohorts in employment.


Tyrowicz Joanna, van der Velde Lucas Augusto
optimal speed of transition reallocation Aghion and Balnchard Caballero and Hammour demographic changes transition economies labour market

WP(11/2010)34. Transition to full-time employment status based on two-equation and three-equation probit model with endogenous switching

Autorzy: Nehrebecka Natalia
This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in Poland aged between 20 and 65 based on the data from the CHER (Consortium of Household Panels for European Socio-Economic Research). The research results show that the state of the per…

WP34. Transition to full-time employment status based on two-equation and three-equation probit model with endogenous switching

This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in Poland aged between 20 and 65 based on the data from the CHER (Consortium of Household Panels for European Socio-Economic Research). The research results show that the state of the person in a given year is not only dependent upon his/her state in the previous year, but also upon whether he/she was in that state the years before. Moreover, the study proves that the impact of individual characteristics of persons on the conditional probability of retaining a given status depends on the persons' employment record, which confirms the rejection of the null hypothesis regarding the 'interdependence of states'. As a result of this study, we can determine that, as expected, being in a given state, just like entry in to that state, are conditioned by demographic characteristics and the human capital of the respondent, as well as by the characteristics of the household, although the impact of these variables depends on the occupational background of that person. This implies that every individual may get trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as the individual begins non-employment period. This article also includes statistics describing the duration of each status and time spent outside of the status by persons with different combinations of characteristics calculated based on the parameter estimation of the model.


Nehrebecka Natalia
two-equation and three-equation probit model with endogenous switching initial conditions problem labour market transitions

WP(3/2009)13. When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe CEECs. Labour Market Institutions upon Euro Zone Accession

Autorzy: Tyrowicz Joanna
This paper reviews the literature on the labour market institutions in European Union Member States in the context of monetary integration. Traditionally, labour markets are a key concept in the optimal currency area theory, playing the role of the o…

WP13. When Eastern Labour Markets Enter Western Europe CEECs. Labour Market Institutions upon Euro Zone Accession

This paper reviews the literature on the labour market institutions in European Union Member States in the context of monetary integration. Traditionally, labour markets are a key concept in the optimal currency area theory, playing the role of the only accommodation mechanism of asymmetric shocks after the monetary unification. There are several theoretical frameworks linking the institutional design of the labour market to the potential effectiveness of monetary policy in the context of currency areas. Many empirical studies addressed these issues too, yielding important policy implications for labour market reforms in the process of monetary unification. However, there seem to be "white spots" in this patchwork, which may actually be particularly useful from the perspective of CEECs upon the accession to the euro zone. We suggest these research directions encompassing labour supply and theoretical frameworks of labour market flexibility benchmarking in the context of monetary integration.


Tyrowicz Joanna
labour market institutions monetary integration labour market reform CEECs EMU

WP(1/2009)11. Breeding Ones' Own Subprime Crisis

Autorzy: Daras Tomasz, Tyrowicz Joanna
In this paper we take a simulation approach towards household budgets survey, analysing the impact of changes in labour market status of household members on the ability of this household to service the mortgage payments. Using the current status as …

WP11. Breeding Ones' Own Subprime Crisis

In this paper we take a simulation approach towards household budgets survey, analysing the impact of changes in labour market status of household members on the ability of this household to service the mortgage payments. Using the current status as benchmark, we performed simulations using stylised facts about labour market evolutions. Households with mortgage are characterised by higher activity rates and lower unemployment rates than demographically comparable households without a credit. While these are typical preconditions for the credit approval decision, this state of matters may not necessarily persist throughout the entire mortgage service period. Firstly, labour market conditions may worsen in general, comprising the credit takers together with the rest of the population. Alternatively, credit takers may undergo employment experience in the same way as other labour market participants.
Consequently, we performed analyses along two scenarios: (i) households with mortgages will gradually become alike the demographically comparable group in terms of employment performance; and (ii) recognising the fact that debtor households members may exert potentially higher effort in maintaining labour market status we model the effects of general employment outlooks deterioration. We use labour force survey data to obtain the probabilities of changing the individual labour market status, while we resort to propensity score matching techniques to provide adequate benchmark for the changes among creditors with relation to general population.
In the simulations we find the share of creditors losing liquidity with the change in the labour market status and the implied burden to the financial sector stability.


Daras Tomasz, Tyrowicz Joanna
financial sector stability mortgages labour market
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