Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: yq{%eV|9nO=SPo4$.W}ALrBE5hl]#[qanmOEd*P@zFD++on`s5UX}7BYY

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 4

WP(3/2023)410. How Well Can Experts Predict Farmers’ Choices in Risky Gambles?

Autorzy: Schaak Henning, Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Zagórska Katarzyna
Risk is ubiquitous in agriculture and a core interest of agricultural economists. While farmers’ risk preferences are well studied, there is limited knowledge on the perspectives of other stakeholders on farmers’ risk preferences. We addr…

WP410. How Well Can Experts Predict Farmers’ Choices in Risky Gambles?

Risk is ubiquitous in agriculture and a core interest of agricultural economists. While farmers’ risk preferences are well studied, there is limited knowledge on the perspectives of other stakeholders on farmers’ risk preferences. We address this gap by eliciting predictions for a multiple-price-list task from 561 students, farm advisors, and experts from Italy, Poland, Croatia, Spain, France, Sweden, and the Netherlands. First, we investigate whether the risk preferences of farmers from different European production systems differ in terms of predictability for the experts. Second, we compare the predictions of different groups of experts, as well as their accuracy. Third, we evaluate whether the accuracy of predictions can be improved by changing incentive mechanisms. Overall, we find substantial variation in individual predictions. Yet, average predictions are close to the averages of the observed responses of farmers. We find that an international group of researchers in experimental economics provides more accurate predictions than farm advisors and other experts or students of agriculture. Differences in predictions by production systems are small. Incentivizing predictions by either a tournament scheme (the best prediction receives a reward) or high accuracy (randomly selected participants are paid depending on the quality of their prediction) do not strongly affect the accuracy, but may slightly reduce noise in the predictions.


Schaak Henning, Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Zagórska Katarzyna
Risk attitudes Expert predictions Expert forecasts Multiple prices lists Meta-science Experimental economics

WP(24/2022)400. Farmers' risk preferences in eleven European farming systems: A multi-country replication of Bocquého et al. (2014)

Autorzy: Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Baaken Marieke Cornelia, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Kuhfuss Laure, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Lapierre Margaux, Lefebvre Marianne, Matzdorf Bettina, Ott Edward, Paparella Antonio, Quendler Erika, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, SchulzeChristoph, ŠumradaTanja, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Willinger Marc, Zagórska Katarzyna
We replicate Bocquého et al. (2014), who used multiple price lists to investigate risk preferences of 107 French farmers. We collect new data from 1,430 participants in eleven European farming systems. In agreement with the original study, far…

WP400. Farmers' risk preferences in eleven European farming systems: A multi-country replication of Bocquého et al. (2014)

We replicate Bocquého et al. (2014), who used multiple price lists to investigate risk preferences of 107 French farmers. We collect new data from 1,430 participants in eleven European farming systems. In agreement with the original study, farmers’ risk preferences are best described by Cumulative Prospect Theory. Structural model estimates show that farmers in the new samples are, on average, less loss averse and more susceptible to probability distortion than in the original study. Explorative analyses indicate differences between estimation approaches, as well as heterogeneity between and within samples. We discuss challenges in replications of economic experiments with farmers across farming contexts.


Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Baaken Marieke Cornelia, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Kuhfuss Laure, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Lapierre Margaux, Lefebvre Marianne, Matzdorf Bettina, Ott Edward, Paparella Antonio, Quendler Erika, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, SchulzeChristoph, ŠumradaTanja, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Willinger Marc, Zagórska Katarzyna
Risk Attitudes Agriculture Cumulative Prospect Theory Expected Utility Theory Artefactual Field Experiment

WP(1/2018)260. Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Autorzy: Zawojska Ewa, Bartczak Anna, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Incentivising respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will ha…

WP260. Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Incentivising respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will have to bear their share of coercive cost if the outcome is implemented (payment consequentiality). We investigate the effects of these two aspects of consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in Poland. We find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen respondents' interest in having the project implemented, but policy consequentiality decreases, while payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost, thus increasing or decreasing their willingness to pay, respectively. We conclude that the two components of consequentiality should be addressed separately in stated preference studies. Additionally, we inquire the theoretically speculated links between respondents' perceptions about policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes, finding no significant relationship.


DOI: https://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/260/001
Zawojska Ewa, Bartczak Anna, Czajkowski Mikołaj
stated preferences discrete choice experiment policy consequentiality payment consequentiality risk attitudes renewable energy

WP(7/2017)236. Stated Preferences for Conservation Policies under Uncertainty: Insights on Individuals’ Risk Attitudes in the Environmental Domain

Autorzy: Faccioli Michela, Kuhfuss Laure, Czajkowski Mikołaj
The outcome of a conservation policy is often subject to uncertainty. In stated preference valuation, there is increasing recognition that uncertainty affects preferences for environmental policies. However, there is also poor understanding regarding…

WP236. Stated Preferences for Conservation Policies under Uncertainty: Insights on Individuals’ Risk Attitudes in the Environmental Domain

The outcome of a conservation policy is often subject to uncertainty. In stated preference valuation, there is increasing recognition that uncertainty affects preferences for environmental policies. However, there is also poor understanding regarding people's perception of uncertainty per se and risk attitude. To shed more light on this, we designed a discrete choice experiment and compared preferences for environmental outcomes under climate change across two split samples, each confronted with a scenario where environmental outcomes are presented as either certain or uncertain (i.e. probabilistically) but displaying the same expected results. We find that, for an equal expected outcome, preferences vary between the certain and the uncertain treatment. These results indicate that risk attitudes impact stated preferences for conservation policies under uncertainty and reinforce the idea that uncertainty should be included in stated preference studies to provide more accurate and policy relevant results. Interestingly, we additionally find that risk attitudes appear to be both context- and individual- specific – the effect of uncertainty depends on the magnitude and direction of change of the environmental good and on individual's socio-demographic characteristics.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/236/007
Faccioli Michela, Kuhfuss Laure, Czajkowski Mikołaj
stated preference valuation uncertainty risk attitude climate change conservation
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