Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: C}L!%6KJGZ{PkMo#Fmd|0huvYi8]#[7m?kk!/7!KaC_dgt'vZt9NZlbZ!

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 3

WP(25/2021)373. Applying Hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on S&P500 Index

Autorzy: Nguyen Vo, Ślepaczuk Robert
This research aims to compare the performance of ARIMA as linear model with that of the combination of ARIMA and GARCH family models to forecast S&P500 log returns in order to construct algorithmic investment strategies on this index. We use the …

WP373. Applying Hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on S&P500 Index

This research aims to compare the performance of ARIMA as linear model with that of the combination of ARIMA and GARCH family models to forecast S&P500 log returns in order to construct algorithmic investment strategies on this index. We use the data collected from Yahoo Finance. The dataset has daily frequency and covers the period from 01/01/2000 to 31/12/2019. By using rolling window approach, we compare ARIMA with the hybrid models to examine whether hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH and ARIMA-EGARCH can really reflect the specific time-series characteristics and have better predictive power than simple ARIMA model. In order to assess the precision and quality of these models in forecasting, we decide to compare their equity lines, their forecasting error metrics (MAE, MAPE, RMSE, MAPE) as well as their performance metrics (annualized return compounded, annualized standard deviation, maximum drawdown, information ratio and adjusted information ratio). The results show that the hybrid models outperform ARIMA and the benchmark (Buy&Hold strategy on S&P500 index). These results are not sensitive to varying window sizes, the type of distribution and the type of the GARCH model.


Nguyen Vo, Ślepaczuk Robert
algorithmic investment strategies ARIMA ARIMA-SGARCH ARIMA-EGARCH hybrid model forecast stock returns model robustness

WP(9/2021)357. Are Transboundary Nature Protected Areas International Public Goods and Why People Think They Are (Not)? Hybrid Modelling Evidence from the EU Outer Borders

Autorzy: Valasiuk Sviataslau, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Giergiczny Marek, Żylicz Tomasz, Veisten Knut, Landa Mata Iratxe, Halse Askill Harkjerr, Angelstam Per
Former studies have shown that transboundary nature protected areas are not perceived as pure international public goods by citizens in neighbouring countries that share national parks. In this study, we assess what drives the valuation of nature pro…

WP357. Are Transboundary Nature Protected Areas International Public Goods and Why People Think They Are (Not)? Hybrid Modelling Evidence from the EU Outer Borders

Former studies have shown that transboundary nature protected areas are not perceived as pure international public goods by citizens in neighbouring countries that share national parks. In this study, we assess what drives the valuation of nature protection on the other side of the border in two European transboundary nature areas, the Białowieża Forest and Fulufjället. Applying hybrid choice modelling, we account for people’s attitudes when eliciting their preferences towards transboundary nature protected areas, and examine the impact of attitudes on the degree to which those preferences are consistent with the international public good hypothesis. We found that the intention of visiting the foreign part of the transboundary area, appreciation of transboundary justice and altruism, were the main drivers, whereas suspicious attitude towards the neighbouring country, propensity to free-ride, and manifestations of ‘patriotism’ applied as international public good mitigators to a limited degree only. Value of an extending the protection regime abroad was still positive for Scandinavians, whilst for Polish and Belarusian respondents a policy aiming at extending the protection abroad would lead to loss of human welfare. Facilitating visits of the foreign part by enhancing cross-border access can be expected to shift peoples’ preferences towards transboundary co-operation.


Valasiuk Sviataslau, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Giergiczny Marek, Żylicz Tomasz, Veisten Knut, Landa Mata Iratxe, Halse Askill Harkjerr, Angelstam Per
International public goods national parks forest transboundary nature protected areas public preferences willingness to pay discrete choice experiment hybrid modeling

WP(26/2011)66. The cost of reducing CO2 emissions: Integrating abatement technologies into economic modeling

Autorzy: Kiuila Olga, Rutherford Thomas F.
We explore two methods of incorporating bottom-up abatement cost estimates into top-down modeling: economy-wide and sector-specific. Carbon emissions depend basically on technology and scale. Given the technology options, abatement is possible withou…

WP66. The cost of reducing CO2 emissions: Integrating abatement technologies into economic modeling

We explore two methods of incorporating bottom-up abatement cost estimates into top-down modeling: economy-wide and sector-specific. Carbon emissions depend basically on technology and scale. Given the technology options, abatement is possible without a substantial reduction in scale. Otherwise the change must come purely through a reduction in demand. Our analysis shows that the cost of environmental policy is considerably overestimated by top-down models if a bottom-up abatement cost curve is not included. Using the data for the Swiss economy, we demonstrate two techniques of representing abatement function explicitly in a computable general equilibrium model: a traditional and a hybrid (discrete technology modeling) approaches. The results suggest that the current climate policy in Switzerland will not be able to move the economy towards the required 10% CO2 reduction. Both approaches provide virtually the same results when calibration process is precisely executed, which contradicts the results in previous studies.


Kiuila Olga, Rutherford Thomas F.
cost curve elasticity of substitution computable general equilibrium model hybrid modeling carbon tax
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