Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: NVO@sz6-'QCZe}p/.gKT3G+P1yk]#[FFB']ixxdB!MY=hxnpAL@&kF=jX

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 4

WP(22/2021)370. Predicting football outcomes from Spanish league using machine learning models

Autorzy: Lewandowski Michał, Chlebus Marcin
High-quality football predictive models can be very useful and profitable. Therefore, in this research, we undertook to construct machine learning models to predict football outcomes in games from Spanish LaLiga and then we compared them with histori…

WP370. Predicting football outcomes from Spanish league using machine learning models

High-quality football predictive models can be very useful and profitable. Therefore, in this research, we undertook to construct machine learning models to predict football outcomes in games from Spanish LaLiga and then we compared them with historical forecasts extracted from bookmakers, which knowledge is commonly considered to be deep and high-quality. The aim of the paper was to design models with the highest possible predictive performances, get results close to bookmakers or even building better estimators. The work included detailed feature engineering based on previous achievements of this domain and own proposals. A built and selected set of variables was used with four machine learning methods, namely Random Forest, AdaBoost, XGBoost and CatBoost. The algorithms were compared based on: Area Under the Curve (AUC) and Ranked Probability Score (RPS). RPS was used as a benchmark in the comparison of estimated probabilities from trained models and forecasts from bookmakers' odds. For a deeper understanding and explanation of the demonstrated methods, which are considered as black-box approaches, Permutation Feature Importance (PFI) was used to evaluate the impacts of individual variables. Features extracted from bookmakers odds’ occurred the most important in terms of PFI. Furthermore, XGBoost achieved the best results on the validation set (RPS equals 0.1989), which obtained similar predictive power to bookmakers' odds (their RPS between 0.1977 and 0.1984). Results of the trained estimators were promising and this article showed that competition with bookmakers is possible using demonstrated techniques.


Lewandowski Michał, Chlebus Marcin
predicting football outcomes machine learning betting adaboost random forest xgboost catboost ranked probability score auc permutation feature importance

WP(4/2016)195. Time Pressure and Risk Taking in Auctions: A Field Experiment

Autorzy: El Haji Anouar, Krawczyk Michał, Sylwestrzak Marek, Zawojska Ewa
Auctions often require risk taking under time pressure. However, little is known about how time pressure moderates the relationship between uncertainty of outcomes and bidding behavior. This study consists of a field experiment in which participants …

WP195. Time Pressure and Risk Taking in Auctions: A Field Experiment

Auctions often require risk taking under time pressure. However, little is known about how time pressure moderates the relationship between uncertainty of outcomes and bidding behavior. This study consists of a field experiment in which participants are invited to a Vickrey auction to elicit their willingness to pay for a lottery ticket. The time available to place a bid and also the skewness of the lottery (holding the expected value constant) are systematically manipulated. We find that under high time pressure participants are less likely to place a bid at all. Furthermore, participants who do place a bid under high time pressure bid significantly less than participants under low time pressure. The main finding is thus that increased time pressure significantly decreases risk taking. The effect seems to be particularly strong for the lottery with a high probability of winning and for female subjects.


El Haji Anouar, Krawczyk Michał, Sylwestrzak Marek, Zawojska Ewa
Internet auctions Vickrey auction risk taking time pressure

WP(34/2015)182. Selling timber in Poland

Autorzy: Giergiczny Marek, Nehrebecka Natalia, Żylicz Tomasz
The paper looks at how the foresters try to reconcile sustainable management practices with economic viability of their operations within the legal framework they operate in. In particular, we compare prices received by the State Forest Enterprise in…

WP182. Selling timber in Poland

The paper looks at how the foresters try to reconcile sustainable management practices with economic viability of their operations within the legal framework they operate in. In particular, we compare prices received by the State Forest Enterprise in Poland in two types of timber auctions: constrained and unconstrained ones. While the latter allow for higher revenues, the former are maintained for political reasons. The authors verify alternative hypotheses regarding market behaviour of timber buyers. The data from timber auctions in 2011-2012 demonstrate that winning prices are determined by starting prices and by the market power of the State Forest Enterprise (diversified with respect to specific timber varieties), as well as by price expectations. Based on the modelling results the paper makes policy recommendations with respect to the design of timber auctions and – more broadly – with respect to striking a balance between timber and non-timber benefits from the forestry in Poland.


Giergiczny Marek, Nehrebecka Natalia, Żylicz Tomasz
Timber markets Public forests Multi-unit auction Sustainable management

WP(19/2014)136. Buying spatially-coordinated ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation on forest land: an experiment on the role of auction format and communication.

Autorzy: Bartczak Anna, Krawczyk Michał, Hanley Nick, Stenger Anne
Procurement auctions are one of several policy tools available to incentivise the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Successful biodiversity conservation often requires a landscape-scale approach and the spatial coordinati…

WP136. Buying spatially-coordinated ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation on forest land: an experiment on the role of auction format and communication.

Procurement auctions are one of several policy tools available to incentivise the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Successful biodiversity conservation often requires a landscape-scale approach and the spatial coordination of participation, for example in the creation of wildlife corridors. In this paper, we use a laboratory experiment to explore two features of procurement auctions in a forest landscape?the pricing mechanism (uniform vs. discriminatory) and availability of communication (chat) between potential sellers. We modify the experimental design developed by Reeson et al. (2011) by introducing uncertainty (and hence heterogeneity) in the production value of forest sites as well as an automated, endogenous stopping rule. We find that discriminatory pricing yields to greater environmental benefits per government dollar spent, chiefly due to better coordination between owners of adjacent plots. Chat also facilitates such coordination but also seems to encourage collusion in sustaining high prices for the most environmentally attractive plots. These two effects offset each other, making chat neutral from the viewpoint of maximizing environmental effect per dollar spent.


Bartczak Anna, Krawczyk Michał, Hanley Nick, Stenger Anne
conservation auctions spatial coordination chat in experiments discriminatory and uniform auctions biodiversity conservation provision of ecosystem services
  • 1