RESEARCH PROJECTS

Estimation of lockdowns impact on well-being of society with nove Bayesian methods and Google search queries data

BOB-IDUB-622-89/2021 - Nowe Idee POB III IDUB

The lockdowns introduced in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact on societies: from an economic, psychological and health perspective. The aim of this project is to assess their impact on so-called social well-being, understood both from the perspective of mental health and a sense of economic security, etc.

This is a difficult task, because well-being is also influenced by other factors, changes occur dynamically and, in addition, the study cannot use a so-called control group. However, other studies show that in certain situations, selected phenomena can be approximated on the basis of data on queries directed to the Google search engine.

Moreover, the mathematical and econometric nuances associated with modelling such a problem can be solved using Bayesian methods, among others. In particular, the project will use the so-called Bayesian structural time series and Bayesian dynamic mixed models in a novel way. Indeed, these methods have only recently been used in the social sciences, but they perform well when short time series are analysed and when there are many variables with potentially significant effects on the explained variable

Impact of tax and benefit changes on income diversification and financial motivation to work in the context of multi-year reforms: a micro-simulation approach to decomposition applied to experiences in Poland in 2005-2018

UMO-2018/29/B/HS4/00627 - OPUS

Tax  and  benefits  policy  is  important  in  shaping  both  the  distribution  of  disposable  income  and  in determining  people’s  decisions  on the labour  market.

Tax  and  benefit  instruments  operate  in constantly  changing  economic  environment  and  without  correct  measures  of  the  tax  and  benefit system  impact  on  income  distribution  and  labour  choices  it  is  impossible  to  conduct  the  efficient economic policy.Incorrect assessment of the tax and benefit policy effects would give us misleading conclusions  about  the  equity  and  efficiency  properties  of  the  economic  policy -one  of  the  central topic  in  economics  (Okun,  1975). How  strong  is itsimpact  on  income  redistribution,  income inequality  and  financial incentivesto  work  depends  on  pre-tax  income  distribution  and  population characteristics.

The  aim ofthe  project  is  to  identify  the  relative  effect  of  tax  and  benefit  reforms  on  changes  in financial incentives to work and on income inequality.By the relative policy effect we understand the size of the policy effect in relation to the size of other effects arising either from changes in wage distribution or in population characteristics

Economics of compliance with constitutions

UMO-2016/23/G/HS4/04371 - BEETHOVEN

In recent years economists have provided much evidence confirming the significance of constitutions operating in states for the functioning of their economies. The main link here is the role that constitutional provisions have for constraining the discretion of actors in power and for inducing them to make decisions aiming at long run pro-development goals and not short run goals of their own or of particular groups. However, this literature mainly found that it is the factual implementation of constitutions and not their formal wording (text) that matters. This leads to important questions, what causes the rise of discrepancies between constitution texts and constitutional reality (in other words, what can explain the so-called de jure – de facto constitutional gaps) and what the consequences of this phenomenon are. In the ECC project we undertake this topic, offering for the first time a comprehensive and systematic economic account of the constitutional compliance problem.

The research planned in the project develops in three main steps. Firstly, to allow for its measurement, the conceptualization of the de jure – de facto constitutional gap is inevitable. This encompasses answering questions such as: What are the relevant legal norms and who has to comply with them? Secondly, we undertake the challenge to indicate the determinants of the gap between de jure and de facto constitutions. These can be characteristics of the rules themselves, characteristics of the constitutional document, or country characteristics in terms of culture, politics and socio-economic conditions. Distinct sets of factors may play a role as determinants of different constitutional rules. Thirdly, we explain the consequences of the gap between de jure constitutional norms and their de facto implementation. We argue that the existence (and size) of such gaps is not only relevant for the effectiveness of these constitutional norms, but also e.g. for trust in government and public sector corruption.

Balance Norwegian Aquaculture – in the span between domestic social responsibility and international market demands

294402 - Research Council of Norway

This project takes into consideration the various assumptions and requirements for the Norwegian farmed salmon industry to grow considerably the next decades. The analysis is two-sided:
1.    In order to fulfill an expected future growth of significance (fivefold by 2050) the industry needs to have domestic support. This means that domestic stakeholders, be it Norwegian consumers/citizens, regulators or representatives of other domestic industries, need to accept the expansion of the aquaculture industry, i.e. dedicating coastal areas to the industry and accepting a potential limitation in other marine ecosystem services. What are the conditions for such acceptance from Norwegian stakeholders and what if such conditions cannot be reached?
2.    To maintain high demand for farmed Norwegian salmon the aquaculture industry need to be competitive on international fish markets. Although consumers  tend to be concerned about the environmental footprint of production process, price is still a major factor in deciding consumer behavior. Building a good reputation may offset some of the price-dependence. Given a situation where domestic regulations and acceptance imply increased costs, and domestic media contribute with negative information, how may the industry develop a reputation, which contributes to relatively high prices in European Markets?
 

Technology-specific innovation systems in Europe - a quantitative micro-level analysis

UMO-2019/33/B/HS4/02951 - OPUS

Efektywność ratunkowej nauki zdalnej w szkołach średnich w okresie pandemii Covid-19

BPN/GIN/2021/1/00002/U/00001 - NAWA

Międzynarodowy projekt naukowo-badawczy pt. „Efektywność nauki zdalnej w szkołach średnich w okresie pandemii COVID-19” jest realizowany wspólnie przez Uniwersytet Warszawski oraz Uniwersytet Campania Luigi Vanvitelli z Włoch. Jest on finansowany przez Narodową Agencję Wymiany Akademickiej (NAWA) w ramach konkursu „Granty interwencyjne”.

Celem naukowym projektu jest zbadanie, jakie sposoby organizacji nauki zdalnej w szkołach oraz jakie metody i narzędzia stosowane przez nauczycieli były najbardziej efektywne. Chcemy też dowiedzieć się, jakie grupy uczniów zyskały, a jakie straciły na edukacji zdalnej. Wierzymy, że wnioski z badania okażą się nie tylko interesujące, ale również zostaną wykorzystane w praktyce po zakończeniu pandemii. Przykładowo, chcemy zbadać, jak poradziła sobie w trakcie nauki zdalnej młodzież objęta nauczaniem indywidualnym i czy uzasadnione byłoby utrzymanie tej formy nauczania w odniesieniu do tej grupy również po pandemii.

Projekt jest realizowany równolegle w szkołach średnich w Polsce i we Włoszech. 

Application of regional price deflators in empirical analysis of regional wage determinants and in verification of the New Economic Geography theoretical models assumptions concerning price index

UMO-2016/23/B/HS4/02370 - OPUS

In this project we want to verify the impact of regional price indices on the results of regional wage determinants analyses.

In this sense we will take into account 2 main approaches present in the literature: market potential model based on the New Economic Geography (NEG) theoretical previsions and the wage curve proposed first by Blanchflower and Oswald (1990).

In the case of the former, the inclusion of regional price indices should allow for more precise estimation of market potential coefficient, as compared to the existing studies. In the case of the latter, the inclusion of regional price deflators should allow for verifying the hypothesis concerning possible overestimation of the relationship between regional wages and the local unemployment rate.

Finally, following Fingleton and Palombi (2013, 2016) we will verify which of the above approaches is more adequate in terms of explaining regional real wage differentials. We assume the wage curve approach to be more adequate. Second, we want to verify empirically one of the main assumptions present in the NEG models concerning the price index and develop a model that takes into account new empirical findings. Here, we focus on the supposition that the core regions should have a lower price index of manufacturing goods. We believe the above assumption is not correct. In order to verify the above, we will calculate regional price indices for manufacturing goods in the case of Poland.

Next, if our research hypotheses are correct (the one concerning the wage curve approach and the one concerning the higher price level of manufacturing products in core regions) we will develop a new theoretical model that would include both features within the NEG framework. The main reason behind the choice of the research topic is the lack of the studies that would include data related to regional price indices. As a result there exists a gap in the literature that can be, for the first time, at least partially filled due to the completion of proposed project.

Forecasting commodity prices using Bayesian symbolic regression

UMO-2018/31/B/HS4/02021 - OPUS

Calculator of services provided by urban trees

TANGO-IV-A/0043/2019-00 - OPUS

The aim of the project is to define a roadmap for the development of technologies based on the results of the baseline project entitled "The importance of ecosystem services provided by trees in urban land planning and management" (2016/23/N/HS4/03674). This technology is a mobile application that will allow the user to independently assess the value of the services provided by trees growing in different cities and towns in Poland. It is true that there are tools that already allow this to some extent (e.g. i-TreeEco), but because their use is complicated and requires expertise in both tree ecology and economics, they are in fact used only by a small group of researchers in Poland. The creation of an easy-to-use mobile application could change this, making it a widely used tool by users such as environmental educators, officials who maintain urban greenery, NGO workers, and others wishing to raise environmental awareness among Polish city dwellers. 

A dynamic approach to the labour market in Poland

UMO-2018/30/E/HS4/00007 - SONATA BIS

The ‘flow approach’ to the labour market was introduced by Blanchard and Diamond (1992).

This simple model consists of two dynamic equations for unemployment and vacancies. The model works by matching a function  that  links  unemployed persons to  vacancies. It  describes  the  steady-state  equilibrium  path  and resulting  wages.  The  simple  model  has  been  extended  by  several  authors  (e.g.  Mortensen  and  Pissarides 1994, Fujita and Ramey 2007, Shimer 2012); however, it has a strong limitation asit assumes apopulation thatdoes not evolve with time.Our goal is to tackle the dynamics of the labour market from different starting points. ‘Flows’ are observed at numerous  instances  in  everyday  life;  for  example,  one  can  consider  water  or  other  fluids  flowing  through pipes,  electricity  flowing  through  electric  wires  or  other conductors,or the  air flowing  around a  wing. 

The common  element  in  all  these  examples  is  that  they  can  be  described  using  the  Navier-Stokes  equations (Batchelor,1967). Here,we are going to adapt those equations to describe the flow of people between labour market  states.  This  flexible  framework  will  allow  us  to  solve  two  known  problems  related  to  the  currently used simple models: the stable population size and stable flow rates.

Moving  to  research  questions,  first,  we  would  like  to  provide  a  more  precise  model  describing  the  labour market phenomena. This would establish the theoretical part of our research proposal. Second, our intention is  to  look  for  determinants  of  particular  flows.  The  most  interesting  ones  are  those  related  to  inactivity, particularly  in  the  context  of  the  Polish  labour  market.  We  will  seek  for  factors  that  encourage  people  to move from inactivity to labour activity and those that discourage them from active participation in the labour market and hence cause movement from employment or unemployment to inactivity