Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 35

WP(40/2026)534. Cost vector effects in discrete choice experiments: Implications for the value of statistical life

Authors: Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
This study investigates how the design of the cost attribute shapes stated preference estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) on willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reduction…

WP534. Cost vector effects in discrete choice experiments: Implications for the value of statistical life

This study investigates how the design of the cost attribute shapes stated preference estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) on willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reductions, we implement a randomized design that varies the cost vector across three treatments, allowing us to compare monetary vectors that differ jointly in their range and spacing. Complementary diagnostics examine scope sensitivity and potential anchoring effects induced by information disclosure and feedback mechanisms. Point estimates of VSL differ by up to roughly 25% across treatments, but the reported between-treatment comparisons are not statistically significant. These results establish neither a detectable VSL effect nor equivalence across treatments. This contrast carries direct policy implications, since cost-benefit analyses and health regulations typically rely on point estimates of VSL rather than full distributions. Secondary diagnostics indicate less-than-proportional WTP scaling over the tested risk increments, while anchoring stimuli (revealing all attribute levels upfront, ordering cost levels from extremes, or providing feedback on comprehension questions) exert no detectable influence on choices or WTP. Taken together, the results highlight the need for clearer methodological guidance on cost attribute selection in stated preference research and underscore that seemingly modest design choices can shift welfare estimates in ways that are consequential for policy appraisal, while accounting for estimation uncertainty.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.40.534
Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
cost vector effects value of statistical life behavioral biases discrete choice experiment mortality risk reduction

WP(33/2026)527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Authors: Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implemen…

WP527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implementation credibility). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 1,100 Polish urban residents, we examine how policy scenario credibility shapes preferences for air pollution mitigation reducing risks from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We contrast domain experts and artificial intelligence (AI) with no-source control as information sources on policy outcome projections. We find that epistemic and implementation credibility are strongly correlated; thus, we treat credibility as a single variable affecting preferences. Using a hybrid mixed logit (HMXL) model, we demonstrate that higher perceived credibility increases programme support, lowers cost sensitivity, and thus elevates willingness to pay (WTP) for the programme and morbidity risk reduction. We find no evidence that the information source influences preferences or scenario credibility.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.33.527
Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
air pollution artificial intelligence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease credibility discrete choice experiment information source

WP(25/2026)519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Authors: Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecol…

WP519. Biodiversity-oriented forest management aligns with societal preferences across Europe

Forests across Europe are undergoing rapid transformation as biodiversity loss and climate change reshape priorities for forest management. Strategies that promote biodiverse and structurally complex forests are increasingly advocated to enhance ecological resilience, yet they are often assumed to conflict with societal preferences, potentially limiting public support for conservation and restoration. We examined whether forest characteristics associated with biodiversity conservation and climate adaptation are consistently valued by society across Europe. We combined a visual discrete choice experiment involving 11,622 respondents from twelve European countries with a travel cost model to evaluate whether stated societal preferences were reflected in observed recreational behaviour. We then integrated harmonized preference estimates with continental forest inventory and remote-sensing data to map the spatial distribution of societal values associated with forest ecosystem condition. Across all countries, respondents consistently preferred forests characterized by taller canopies, greater tree-species richness, heterogeneous age structures, and more deadwood. These preferences closely aligned with observed visitation behaviour despite substantial differences in geography, accessibility, and recreational traditions. Spatial analyses further showed that forests with greater structural complexity consistently exhibited higher societal value. Our findings demonstrate that biodiversity-oriented forest management and societal values largely converge across Europe, suggesting that many interventions promoting ecological resilience can simultaneously strengthen public support for forest conservation and restoration, providing a stronger foundation for adaptive, multifunctional forest governance under global environmental change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.25.519
Giergiczny Marek, Jacobsen Jette Bredahl, Glenk Klaus, Meyerhoff Jürgen, Abildtrup Jens, Taye Fitalew Agimass, Budziński Wiktor, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Draus Borys, Faccioli Michela, Gajderowicz Tomasz, Getzner Michael, Hackbarth Tom X., Janiec Piotr, Lundhede Thomas, Mayer Marius, McVittie Alistair, Oh Rachel, Olschewski Roland, Pereira Henrique M., Quaas Martin, Socha Jarosław, Strange Niels, Ščasný Milan, Valasiuk Sviataslau, Wasiak Adam, Fernández Néstor
biodiversity conservation forest management structural complexity forest recreation ecosystem services discrete choice experiment travel cost method

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(4/2026)498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

Authors: Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuat…

WP498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuation double-bounded dichotomous choice and an open-ended follow-up, we elicit individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. In a randomized design, we varied the cost attribute across three cost range treatments and manipulated information disclosure and feedback to examine three behavioral phenomena: cost vector effects (whether the range of costs presented affects WTP), scope insensitivity (whether WTP scales appropriately with the magnitude of the risk reduction), and anchoring (whether initial cost cues affect subsequent responses). Our results show that mean VSL estimates can vary by up to ~25% between cost treatments. Furthermore, WTP responses exhibit partial scope insensitivity – larger risk reductions do not proportionally increase WTP – indicating a deviation from theoretical expectations. Importantly, we find no strong evidence of anchoring: neither revealing all attribute levels upfront, nor starting with extreme cost levels, nor providing feedback on quiz questions significantly affected respondents’ choices or WTP. Our findings underscore the need for careful survey design. Even if VSL distributions remain statistically similar across cost frames, substantial shifts in mean magnitudes could be consequential for policy. We call for standardized guidelines on cost attribute selection and survey protocols to mitigate bias, ensuring that stated preference methods yield reliable welfare estimates for health policy decisions.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.4.498
Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
value of statistical life (VSL) stated preference (SP) contingent valuation (CV) behavioral biases anchoring effect scope insensitivity discrete choice experiment (DCE) willingness to pay (WTP) mortality risk reduction cardiovascular diseases

WP(31/2025)494. Hybrid or Hands On? Students’ Economic Preferences over Study Design and Labor Market Payoffs

Authors: Zawadzki Wojciech, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Jędrzejewska Matylda, Żmijewska Maja, Ryłow Jakub, Gadowska-dos Santos Dominika, Grotkowska Gabriela, Różycka Agnieszka, Filip Arkadiusz, Gruszczynski Marcin, Kałamucka Agata, Kowalski Tadeusz, Kozioł Waldemar, Olender-Skorek Magdalena, Opolski Krzysztof, Saczuk Katarzyna, Szczurek Mateusz, Sztandar-Sztanderska Urszula, Wańczyk Kacper, Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zabarina Kateryna, Żoch Piotr
We study how university students trade off the design and demands of study against expected labor market returns. We conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) with students of the Economics Department at the University of Warsaw. Choice alternativ…

WP494. Hybrid or Hands On? Students’ Economic Preferences over Study Design and Labor Market Payoffs

We study how university students trade off the design and demands of study against expected labor market returns. We conducted a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) with students of the Economics Department at the University of Warsaw. Choice alternatives varied the share of in person teaching, weekly class hours, weekly preparation time, language mix (Polish vs. English), net monthly study cost (tuition minus stipends), and expected net salary after graduation. The DCE was embedded in a broader survey measuring study experience, time use, work during studies, scheduling preferences, and perceptions of quality and reputation. The instrument and framings follow state of the art DCE guidance and are publicly documentable. Using multinomial logit and mixed logit models, we estimate compensating differentials students require to accept (i) more online teaching, (ii) more weekly effort (classes/prep), or (iii) English medium instruction in Polish language curricula. The results show large, precise utility gains from higher expected salary, disutility from higher weekly preparation time, and strong (non linear) preferences over delivery mode and language. We then simulate policy scenarios (e.g., introducing 50% online, adjusting effort) and quantify the cost equivalent or salary equivalent levers needed to maintain program attractiveness. We position our results in the international literature on DCEs in higher education and discuss external validity with respect to a large national DCE that emphasized earnings over prestige. We conclude with program design implications for universities worldwide navigating hybridization, workload calibration, and language policy in light of students’ revealed economic preferences.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.31.494
Zawadzki Wojciech, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Jędrzejewska Matylda, Żmijewska Maja, Ryłow Jakub, Gadowska-dos Santos Dominika, Grotkowska Gabriela, Różycka Agnieszka, Filip Arkadiusz, Gruszczynski Marcin, Kałamucka Agata, Kowalski Tadeusz, Kozioł Waldemar, Olender-Skorek Magdalena, Opolski Krzysztof, Saczuk Katarzyna, Szczurek Mateusz, Sztandar-Sztanderska Urszula, Wańczyk Kacper, Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zabarina Kateryna, Żoch Piotr
discrete choice experiment higher education hybrid/online vs. in-person language of instruction student workload willingness-to-pay

WP(11/2025)474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White
Heritage authorities must decide which places to protect, but valuation studies usually examine a single named site. We develop a common way to describe buildings, historic sites and landscapes, and test it in a choice experiment with 1,613 Victorian…

WP474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments

Heritage authorities must decide which places to protect, but valuation studies usually examine a single named site. We develop a common way to describe buildings, historic sites and landscapes, and test it in a choice experiment with 1,613 Victorian respondents. The results show higher mean willingness to pay for nineteenth-century age and excellent condition in all three categories, while the value attached to distance differs across them. Images also affect stated values in the later survey designs, although many individual image comparisons remain uncertain. We show how the estimated characteristics combine in an illustrative courthouse profile. A shared set of characteristics makes comparisons possible, but it does not make the monetary values interchangeable or establish that they transfer to new places. The framework can help structure heritage appraisal while making those limits explicit.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.11.474
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White
cultural heritage historic preservation non-market valuation discrete choice experiment public preferences

WP(10/2025)473. Valuing theater performances through benefit transfer: Accuracy of transfers over space

Authors: Zawojska Ewa, Jusypenko Bartosz, Wiśniewska Aleksandra
Understanding the value of cultural goods such as performing arts is essential for designing welfare-maximizing cultural policies. However, since these goods often generate public externalities, market data alone cannot capture their full value. Whil…

WP473. Valuing theater performances through benefit transfer: Accuracy of transfers over space

Understanding the value of cultural goods such as performing arts is essential for designing welfare-maximizing cultural policies. However, since these goods often generate public externalities, market data alone cannot capture their full value. While primary non-market valuation studies offer robust insights, they are resource-intensive. Benefit transfer (BT)—using value estimates from existing studies to assess unstudied contexts—offers a cost-effective alternative. This study examines the accuracy of BT in cultural economics, focusing on marginal values of theater performances. Using data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted in six Polish provinces, we perform inter-provincial transfers of marginal willingness-to-pay values for four types of theater performances. By comparing transferred values with primary estimates, we assess BT’s validity and reliability. To our knowledge, this is the first BT study in cultural economics using DCE-derived marginal values. Our findings suggest that BT accuracy in culture aligns with results from more established fields, supporting the use of DCE-based estimates in cultural policy evaluation.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.10.473
Zawojska Ewa, Jusypenko Bartosz, Wiśniewska Aleksandra
accuracy benefit transfer discrete choice experiment performing arts reliability validity

WP(19/2023)426. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland

Authors: Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zawojska Ewa, Baldin Andrea, Bille Trine
Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefit…

WP426. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland

Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefits cannot be assessed through market transactions. While original non-market valuation studies require substantial budgets and time, a benefit transfer approach offers an alternative. It enables the application of empirical estimates from existing original studies conducted at one site to approximate the value at another site. This study provides the first international benefit transfer for performing arts and examines the reliability of various benefit transfer approaches. We use empirical data from two separate stated preference valuation surveys conducted in Denmark and in Poland. Our results suggest that the benefit function transfer accounting for differences in purchasing power parity between the countries can generate transfer errors as low as 3-6%, indicating high reliability of the transferred values.


Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zawojska Ewa, Baldin Andrea, Bille Trine
international benefit transfer performing arts contingent valuation discrete choice experiment transfer errors

WP(5/2022)381. Do numerical probabilities promote informed stated preference responses under inherent uncertainty? Insight from a coastal adaptation choice experiment

Authors: Makriyannis Christos, Johnston Robert J., Zawojska Ewa
Inherent outcome uncertainty within stated preference surveys is invariant across valuation scenarios. It has received relatively little attention in the environmental stated preference literature. Specifically, it is unknown whether percentage proba…

WP381. Do numerical probabilities promote informed stated preference responses under inherent uncertainty? Insight from a coastal adaptation choice experiment

Inherent outcome uncertainty within stated preference surveys is invariant across valuation scenarios. It has received relatively little attention in the environmental stated preference literature. Specifically, it is unknown whether percentage probabilities—a ubiquitous means of communicating uncertainty in questionnaires—are an effective risk communication tool. This article systematically evaluates two treatments in a discrete choice experiment survey related to coastal climate change adaptation in Connecticut, USA: one provides only raw frequencies as a risk communication tool, while the other provides implied numerical probabilities in addition to the same raw frequencies. Results from a mixed logit model and from a latent class model that controls for sociodemographic influences show that the use of percentage probabilities to communicate inherent uncertainty has no additional effect on average welfare estimates or the choice behavior of respondents. Our findings suggest that percentage probabilities may not be an impactful way to communicate inherent uncertainty in environmental stated preference questionnaires.


Makriyannis Christos, Johnston Robert J., Zawojska Ewa
flood adaptation inherent uncertainty discrete choice experiment stated preference mixed logit risk communication WTP-space