Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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(1) the main text without the title of the article and the authors (DOC/DOCX file) and

(2) the title page including: the title of the paper, the authors and their affiliation (DOC/DOCX file).

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Number of Results 33

WP(28/2026)522. Intra-Household Relative Income and Happiness: The Role of Unpaid Work Division During COVID and Afterwards

Authors: Grabowska Magdalena
Rising female employment and earnings have transformed partners’ economic positions, while gender divisions in unpaid labor persist. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the organization of paid and unpaid work, opening a window to reassess these tw…

WP522. Intra-Household Relative Income and Happiness: The Role of Unpaid Work Division During COVID and Afterwards

Rising female employment and earnings have transformed partners’ economic positions, while gender divisions in unpaid labor persist. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the organization of paid and unpaid work, opening a window to reassess these two dimensions within couples. Using longitudinal panel data from Poland (2021–2024), this paper examines how relative income and the division of unpaid labor relate to both life satisfaction and partner satisfaction among partnered adults. Random-effects models reveal distinct gendered patterns. For men, these dynamics are associated primarily with global life satisfaction: men report higher life satisfaction when they out-earn their partners, but substantially lower life satisfaction when they are out-earned and primarily responsible for domestic work. For women, effects concentrate in partner satisfaction: women who out-earn their partners report lower partner satisfaction when they also perform most domestic labor. These patterns hold for both housework and childcare and are observed primarily in the post-pandemic period.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.28.522
Grabowska Magdalena
relative income unpaid labor division subjective well-being intra-couple income distribution Poland

WP(23/2026)517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Authors: Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated…

WP517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.23.517
Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
migration intentions migration behavior migration decision-making intention-behavior gap social media analysis Twitter data geolocated data linguistic cues migration prediction human mobility Poland

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(12/2025)475. The Short-Term Fertility Impact of Abortion Law Restrictions: A Research Note

Authors: Matysiak Anna, van der Velde Lucas Augusto
We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 9…

WP475. The Short-Term Fertility Impact of Abortion Law Restrictions: A Research Note

We examine the short-term fertility effects of Poland’s 2020 Constitutional Tribunal (CT) ruling, which declared abortions on the grounds of fetal anomaly unconstitutional. The decision effectively outlawed nearly all legal abortions, as over 97% had been conducted on this ground. Using vital statistics and interrupted time series analysis, we find a significant and immediate decline in births of around 6.6%. The fertility response was strongest among younger women and first-time mothers, suggesting heightened sensitivity to the increased risks of pregnancy. Contrary to expectations, highly educated women did not significantly adjust fertility, likely due to greater access to abortion services abroad. Our findings demonstrate that abortion bans may lower fertility when they substantially increase the perceived costs and risks of childbearing, particularly in societies with widespread contraceptive use. These results provide insights relevant to current debates in the United States, where overturning of Roe v. Wade may also reshape fertility patterns.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.12.475
Matysiak Anna, van der Velde Lucas Augusto
abortion reproductive rights fertility Poland

WP(7/2025)470. The Impact of Railway on the Regional Economic Development and Social Mobility in the Congress Kingdom of Poland

Authors: Koryś Piotr, Marcin Wroński
We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experien…

WP470. The Impact of Railway on the Regional Economic Development and Social Mobility in the Congress Kingdom of Poland

We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experienced significantly higher population growth. The economic effects of the connection to the railway network increased over time. State-funded military railway lines generated a smaller impact than private-owned lines. We also study the impact of the railway connection on social mobility proxied through a number of notable people born in a given city. However, we do not identify any robust impact.
 


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.7.470
Koryś Piotr, Marcin Wroński
economic history Russian Poland economic growth railways

WP(3/2025)466. The Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Interwar Poland: Detailed Historical National Accounts

Authors: Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
We provide the first estimate of the Polish national, regional and sectoral GDP in the interwar period. We find that the Polish economy's performance in the interwar period was much better than it was assumed before. In the years 1924 – 193…

WP466. The Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Interwar Poland: Detailed Historical National Accounts

We provide the first estimate of the Polish national, regional and sectoral GDP in the interwar period. We find that the Polish economy's performance in the interwar period was much better than it was assumed before. In the years 1924 – 1938, the real GDP per capita increased by almost 40% or by 2.3% annually. As economic growth was stronger in the poorer regions significant regional convergence was achieved. Our results challenge the dominant narrative about the weak performance of the Polish economy in the interwar years.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.3.466
Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
economic history Poland Great Depression regional convergence economic growth

WP(2/2025)465. Agriculture in interwar Poland: development in a turbulent time

Authors: Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased …

WP465. Agriculture in interwar Poland: development in a turbulent time

We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased during the investigated period. Significant regional convergence, both in the case of prices and value added occurred. In the years 1924 -38 value added increased by 5.35% annually, resulting 4.01% per capita growth rate. However, the yields per hectare grew less than in a majority of other European economies. While less developed eastern regions caught up with more economically advanced western Poland, the leading west lost compared to European peers. Therefore, our assessment of the development of agriculture in Poland in that period remains mixed.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.2.465
Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
agriculture national income Poland Central and Eastern Europe economic growth regional convergence

WP(2/2023)409. Prudent populists? The short-term macroeconomic impact of populist policies in Poland

Authors: Brzeziński Michał, Sałach-Dróżdż Katarzyna
Recent research shows that populist governments in general depress countries’ economic growth and fail to improve income distribution. We study the short-term macroeconomic consequences of populist policies implemented in Poland since 2015. Usi…

WP409. Prudent populists? The short-term macroeconomic impact of populist policies in Poland

Recent research shows that populist governments in general depress countries’ economic growth and fail to improve income distribution. We study the short-term macroeconomic consequences of populist policies implemented in Poland since 2015. Using the augmented synthetic control method, we find that the populists boosted the GDP per capita by almost 8% between 2016 and 2019. We do not find any effect of populism on inflation and estimate only small labor market impacts. The populists improved tax revenue collection and reduced public debt. A generous child benefit program and other redistributive policies introduced by the populists significantly reduced overall poverty and almost eradicated absolute child poverty. Our results imply that anti-establishment populists may be macroeconomically prudent, at least in the short run.


Brzeziński Michał, Sałach-Dróżdż Katarzyna
populism economic growth public finance income distribution Poland

WP(18/2022)394. Heterogeneous employment effects of minimum wage policies

Authors: Majchrowska Aleksandra, Strawiński Paweł
We explain the variations in the employment effects with respect to minimum wage changes among different groups of workers. Prior analyses considered only two dimensions, investigating employment effects over time across groups of workers or regions.…

WP394. Heterogeneous employment effects of minimum wage policies

We explain the variations in the employment effects with respect to minimum wage changes among different groups of workers. Prior analyses considered only two dimensions, investigating employment effects over time across groups of workers or regions. We propose a multidimensional panel data approach to simultaneously analyze the heterogeneous employment effects of minimum wage changes across age groups, economic sectors, and regions over time. Latent heterogeneities in regional employment reactions are discovered, indicating that the employment effect in the regional labor market is the result of a combination of specific labor market features related to the composition of workers and employers.


Majchrowska Aleksandra, Strawiński Paweł
Employment elasticity minimum wage regional labor markets latent heterogeneities intra-regional differences Poland

WP(17/2020)323. Political connections and the super-rich in Poland

Authors: Brzeziński Michał, Sałach Katarzyna
We use newly collected original panel data on the super-wealthy individuals in Poland (observed over 2002-2018) to study the impact of the rich’s political connections on their wealth level, mobility among the rich and the risk of dropping off …

WP323. Political connections and the super-rich in Poland

We use newly collected original panel data on the super-wealthy individuals in Poland (observed over 2002-2018) to study the impact of the rich’s political connections on their wealth level, mobility among the rich and the risk of dropping off the rich list. The multimillionaires are classified as politically connected if we find reliable news stories linking their wealth to political contacts or questionable licenses, or if a person was formerly an informant of communist Security Service or member of the communist party, or when the origins of wealth are connected to the privatization process. We find that political connections are not associated with the wealth level of Polish multimillionaires, but that they are linked to the 20-30% lower probability of upward mobility in the ranking of the rich. Moreover, being a former member of the communist party or secret police informant increases the risk of dropping off the Polish rich list by 79%. Taken together, our results show that, contrary to some other post-socialist countries such as Russia or Ukraine, there is little evidence that the Polish economy suffers from crony capitalism.


Brzeziński Michał, Sałach Katarzyna
the super-rich billionaires oligarchs wealth inequality top wealth political connections crony capitalism Poland