Working Papers

Seria wydawnicza WNE WORKING PAPERS prowadzona jest przez WNE UW od 2008 r. i jak dotąd opublikowano w niej ponad 400 prac.

Seria WNE Working Papers służy szybkiemu upowszechnianiu wyników badań prowadzonych na Wydziale Nauk Ekonomicznych UW. Publikowane tu teksty mają charakter wersji roboczych (pre-printów): mogą być uzupełniane lub poprawiane w miarę postępu prac nad tekstem i procesu wydawniczego. Prezentujemy aktualną wersję udostępnioną przez autorów, opatrzoną datą oraz identyfikatorami DOI/ISSN – co ułatwia jej cytowanie i śledzenie kolejnych iteracji. Każdy dokument zachowuje pełne prawa autorskie swoich twórców, a w przypadku późniejszych zmian, autorzy mogą w dowolnym momencie zamieścić zaktualizowany plik lub wskazać miejsce ostatecznego wydania.

Do serii WORKING PAPERS przyjmowane są artykuły pracowników naukowych WNE UW oraz publikacje z konferencji organizowanych na WNE UW. Artykuły powinny dotyczyć ekonomii, mieć charakter oryginalnych prac badawczych, nie być wcześniej publikowane. Przyjmowane są wyłącznie teksty w języku angielskim.

Prace prosimy przesyłać e-mailem na adres: vz'c8.^\lfKE9{qYdVN!6&b7tZB]#[njuO|wFMNW-4-8iHJ_DwCiG-}K#

Prosimy przesyłać dwa pliki:

(1) główny tekst bez podania tytułu artykułu oraz autorów (plik DOC/DOCX) oraz

(2) stronę tytułową zawierającą: tytuł opracowania, autorów oraz ich afiliację (plik DOC/DOCX). 

Przed przesłaniem tekstu prosimy zapoznać się z szczegółowymi wymogami edycyjnymi.

Redaktorem wydawniczym serii Working Papers jest dr Maciej Bukowski.

Ilość wyników 17

WP(20/2025)483. Performance of Pairs Trading Strategies Based on Renko and Kagi Charts

Autorzy: Sun Yufei
This paper investigates the profitability and robustness of pairs trading strategies based on non-parametric technical chart constructions—Renko and Kagi—across the U.S. and Chinese equity markets. Within a market-neutral, mean-reversion …

WP483. Performance of Pairs Trading Strategies Based on Renko and Kagi Charts

This paper investigates the profitability and robustness of pairs trading strategies based on non-parametric technical chart constructions—Renko and Kagi—across the U.S. and Chinese equity markets. Within a market-neutral, mean-reversion framework, the study examines strategy performance under varying market regimes, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 period. Using historical data from indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI series, pairs are selected via statistical patterns in Renko and Kagi charts. Robustness checks consider varying trading horizons, the number of pairs, and transaction costs. Results show that both chart-based strategies generate significant excess returns and exhibit strong Sharpe ratios before costs. While trading frictions reduce profitability, Renko-based strategies remain resilient, especially during crises. The findings highlight that adaptive and non-parametric charting methods can effectively capture transient mispricings and provide viable alternatives for statistical arbitrage in turbulent markets.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.20.483
Sun Yufei
Pairs trading; Quantitative strategies; Statistical arbitrage; Kagi Chart; Renko Chart; H-Strategy

WP(4/2025)467. Disruptive innovation: Incumbent’s response to innovation threat

Autorzy: Marcin Penconek, Pagliarani Stefano
The theory of disruptive innovation has gained significant interest from the academic and business communities, investigating the reasons for inadequate or delayed responses of incumbents to innovation which challenges their established markets. Inad…

WP467. Disruptive innovation: Incumbent’s response to innovation threat

The theory of disruptive innovation has gained significant interest from the academic and business communities, investigating the reasons for inadequate or delayed responses of incumbents to innovation which challenges their established markets. Inadequate responses were explained by the concept of innovator’s dilemma, which postulates how incumbents tend to satisfy their consumers on the established markets, while overlooking opportunities with other consumers. However, the optimal incumbents’ response to disruptive innovation in the normative sense has not been researched. We investigate the choice of the payoff-maximizing strategy in response to the observed market disruption as a choice between different management approaches. Our study shows the importance of the speed of innovation adoption for the choice of the optimal response to innovation. We also show that the response can be delayed in some cases, reflecting the exploitation-exploration dilemma. This new insight complements the reasons of delayed response to disruptive innovation threats.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.4.467
Marcin Penconek, Pagliarani Stefano
Innovation Incumbent Management strategy

WP(27/2024)463. Informer in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on High Frequency Bitcoin Data

Autorzy: Filip Stefaniuk, Ślepaczuk Robert
The article investigates the usage of Informer architecture for building automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data. Three strategies using Informer model with different loss functions: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Generalized Me…

WP463. Informer in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on High Frequency Bitcoin Data

The article investigates the usage of Informer architecture for building automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data. Three strategies using Informer model with different loss functions: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Generalized Mean Absolute Directional Loss (GMADL) and Quantile loss, are proposed and evaluated against the Buy and Hold benchmark and two benchmark strategies based on technical indicators. The evaluation is conducted using data of various frequencies: 5 minute, 15 minute, and 30 minute intervals, over the 6 different periods. Although the Informer-based model with Quantile loss did not outperform the benchmark, two other models achieved better results. The performance of the model using RMSE loss worsens when used with higher frequency data while the model that uses novel GMADL loss function is benefiting from higher frequency data and when trained on 5 minute interval it beat all the other strategies on most of the testing periods. The primary contribution of this study is the application and assessment of the RMSE, GMADL and Quantile loss functions with the Informer model to forecast future returns, subsequently using these forecasts to develop automated trading strategies. The research provides evidence that employing an Informer model trained with the GMADL loss function can result in superior trading outcomes compared to the buy-and-hold approach.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2024.27.463
Filip Stefaniuk, Ślepaczuk Robert
Machine Learning Financial Series Forecasting Automated Trading Strategy Informer Transformer Bitcoin High Frequency Trading Statistics GMADL

WP(9/2024)445. Statistical arbitrage in multi-pair trading strategy based on graph clustering algorithms in US equities market

Autorzy: Korniejczuk Adam, Ślepaczuk Robert
The study seeks to develop an effective strategy based on the novel framework of statistical arbitrage based on graph clustering algorithms. Amalgamation of quantitative and machine learning methods, including the Kelly criterion, and an ensemble of …

WP445. Statistical arbitrage in multi-pair trading strategy based on graph clustering algorithms in US equities market

The study seeks to develop an effective strategy based on the novel framework of statistical arbitrage based on graph clustering algorithms. Amalgamation of quantitative and machine learning methods, including the Kelly criterion, and an ensemble of machine learning classifiers have been used to improve risk-adjusted returns and increase the immunity to transaction costs over existing approaches.  The study seeks to provide an integrated approach to optimal signal detection and risk management. As a part of this approach, innovative ways of optimizing take profit and stop loss functions for daily frequency trading strategies have been proposed and tested. All of the tested approaches outperformed appropriate benchmarks. The best combinations of the techniques and parameters demonstrated significantly better performance metrics than the relevant benchmarks. The results have been obtained under the assumption of realistic transaction costs, but are sensitive to the changes of some key parameters


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2024.9.445
Korniejczuk Adam, Ślepaczuk Robert
graph clustering algorithms statistical arbitrage algorithmic investment strategies pair trading strategy Kelly criterion machine learning risk adjusted returns

WP(7/2024)443. LSTM-ARIMA as a Hybrid Approach in Algorithmic Investment Strategies

Autorzy: Kashif Kamil, Ślepaczuk Robert
This study focuses on building an algorithmic investment strategy employing a hybrid approach that combines LSTM and ARIMA models referred to as LSTM-ARIMA. This unique algorithm uses LSTM to produce final predictions but boost results of this RNN by…

WP443. LSTM-ARIMA as a Hybrid Approach in Algorithmic Investment Strategies

This study focuses on building an algorithmic investment strategy employing a hybrid approach that combines LSTM and ARIMA models referred to as LSTM-ARIMA. This unique algorithm uses LSTM to produce final predictions but boost results of this RNN by adding the residuals obtained from ARIMA predictions among other inputs. The algorithm is tested across three equity indices (S&P 500, FTSE 100, and CAC 40) using daily frequency data spanning from January, 2000 to August, 2023. The architecture of testing is based on the walk-forward procedure which is applied for hyperparameter tunning phase that uses using Random Search and backtesting the algorithms. The selection of the optimal model is determined based on adequately selected performance metrics combining focused on risk-adjusted return measures. We considered two strategies for each algorithm: Long-Only and Long-Short in order to present situation of two various groups of investors with different investment policy restrictions. For each strategy and equity index, we compute the performance metrics and visualize the equity curve to identify the best strategy with the highest modified information ratio. The findings conclude that the LSTM-ARIMA algorithm outperforms all the other algorithms across all the equity indices what confirms strong potential behind hybrid ML-TS (machine learning - time series) models in searching for the optimal algorithmic investment strategies.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2024.7.443
Kashif Kamil, Ślepaczuk Robert
Deep Learning Recurrent Neural Networks Algorithmic Investment Strategy LSTM ARIMA Hybrid/Ensemble Models Walk-Forward Process

WP(3/2024)439. Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting

Autorzy: Bieganowski Bartosz, Ślepaczuk Robert
This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming to improve investment strategy performance. It specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation…

WP439. Supervised Autoencoder MLP for Financial Time Series Forecasting

This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming to improve investment strategy performance. It specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling on risk-adjusted returns, using the Sharpe and Information Ratios. The study focuses on the S&P 500 index, EUR/USD, and BTC/USD as the traded assets from January 1, 2010, to April 30, 2022. Findings indicate that supervised autoencoders, with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size, significantly boost strategy effectiveness. However, excessive noise and large bottleneck sizes can impair performance, highlighting the importance of precise parameter tuning. This paper also presents a derivation of a novel optimization metric that can be used with triple barrier labeling. The results of this study have substantial policy implications, suggesting that financial institutions and regulators could leverage techniques presented to enhance market stability and investor protection, while also encouraging more informed and strategic investment approaches in various financial sectors.


Bieganowski Bartosz, Ślepaczuk Robert
machine learning algorithmic investment strategy supervised autoencoders financial time series trading strategy risk-adjusted return

WP(25/2022)401. Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index

Autorzy: Kryńska Katarzyna, Ślepaczuk Robert
This thesis investigates the use of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies. LSTM models are used to generate buy/sell signals, with previous levels of Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 Index value as inputs. Four…

WP401. Daily and intraday application of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies on Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index

This thesis investigates the use of various architectures of the LSTM model in algorithmic investment strategies. LSTM models are used to generate buy/sell signals, with previous levels of Bitcoin price and the S&P 500 Index value as inputs. Four approaches are tested: two are regression problems (price level prediction) and the other two are classification problems (prediction of price direction). All approaches are applied to daily, hourly, and 15-minute data and are using a walk-forward optimization procedure. The out-of-sample period for the S&P 500 Index is from February 6, 2014 to November 27, 2020, and for Bitcoin it is from January 15, 2014 to December 1, 2020. We discover that classification techniques beat regression methods on average, but we cannot determine if intra-day models outperform inter-day models. We come to the conclusion that the ensembling of models does not always have a positive impact on performance. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how changes in the main hyperparameters of the LSTM model affect strategy performance. 


Kryńska Katarzyna, Ślepaczuk Robert
machine learning deep learning recurrent neural networks LSTM algorithmic trading ensemble investment strategy intra-day trading S&P 500 Index Bitcoin

WP(21/2022)397. A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy

Autorzy: Baranochnikov Illia, Ślepaczuk Robert
The aim of this work is to build a profitable algorithmic investment strategy on various types of assets. The algorithm is built using recurrent neural networks (LSTM and GRU) as the primary source of  signals to buy/sell financial instruments. …

WP397. A comparison of LSTM and GRU architectures with novel walk-forward approach to algorithmic investment strategy

The aim of this work is to build a profitable algorithmic investment strategy on various types of assets. The algorithm is built using recurrent neural networks (LSTM and GRU) as the primary source of  signals to buy/sell financial instruments. LSTM and GRU architectures are compared in terms of obtaining the best results and beating the market. The algorithm is tested for four financial instruments (Bitcoin, Tesla, Brent Oil and Gold) on daily and hourly data frequencies. The out-of-sample period is from 1 January 2021 to 1 April 2022. A walk-forward process is responsible for training models and selecting the best model to forecast asset prices in the future. Ten model architectures with various hyperparameters are trained during each step of the walk-forward process. The model architecture with the highest Information Ratio (IR*) in the validation period is used for forecasting in the out-of-sample period. For each strategy, the performance metrics are calculated based on which the profitability of the algorithm is evaluated. At the end, a detailed sensitivity analysis with regards to the main hyperparameters is conducted. The results reveal that LSTM outperforms GRU in most of the cases and that investment strategy built based on LSTM/GRU architecture is able to beat the market only on 50% of tested cases. 


Baranochnikov Illia, Ślepaczuk Robert
deep learning recurrent neural networks algorithm trading strategy LSTM GRU walk-forward process

WP(2/2022)378. The profitability of pairs trading strategies on Hong-Kong stock market: distance, cointegration, and correlation methods

Autorzy: Baiquan Ma, Ślepaczuk Robert
This research aims to compare the profitability of correlation-based pair trading strategy, cointegration-based pair trading strategy, and distance-based pair trading strategy on the Hong Kong stock market. We try to build an effective pair trading s…

WP378. The profitability of pairs trading strategies on Hong-Kong stock market: distance, cointegration, and correlation methods

This research aims to compare the profitability of correlation-based pair trading strategy, cointegration-based pair trading strategy, and distance-based pair trading strategy on the Hong Kong stock market. We try to build an effective pair trading strategy based on 50 stocks listed in the Hang Seng index joining them in market-neutral pairs. The dataset has a daily frequency and covers the period from 07/01/2013 to 07/01/2020. The result shows that all three methods are profitable in the Hong Kong stock market and can beat the market with regard to risk-adjusted return metrics. This result is quite sensitive to the varying number of pairs traded and rebalancing period and less sensitive to financial leverage degree. Moreover, the cointegration method is superior as compared to the correlation method and distance method.


Baiquan Ma, Ślepaczuk Robert
pairs trading strategy market neutral strategy algorithmic trading strategy distance method cointegration and correlation trading efficient market hypothesis investment portfolio algorithmic trading Hang Seng index

WP(39/2020)345. Applying Hurst Exponent in Pair Trading Strategies

Autorzy: Bui Quynh, Ślepaczuk Robert
This research aims to seek an alternative approach to pair selection for the purpose of pair trading strategy. We try to build an effective pair trading strategy based on 103 stocks listed in NASDAQ-100 index. The dataset has daily frequency and cove…

WP345. Applying Hurst Exponent in Pair Trading Strategies

This research aims to seek an alternative approach to pair selection for the purpose of pair trading strategy. We try to build an effective pair trading strategy based on 103 stocks listed in NASDAQ-100 index. The dataset has daily frequency and covers the period from 01/01/2000 to 31/12/2018. In this study, Generalized Hurst Exponent, Correlation and Cointegration are employed to detect the mean-reverting pattern in the time series of linear combination of each pair of stock. The result show that Hurst method cannot outperform the benchmark, which implies that market is efficient. This result is quite sensitive to varying number of pairs traded and rebalancing period and less sensitive to financial leverage degree. Moreover, Hurst method is better than cointegration method but is not superior as compared to correlation method.


Bui Quynh, Ślepaczuk Robert
generalized Hurst & Hurst exponent algorithmic trading strategies portfolio choice mean-reversion strategy pair trading correlation & cointegration trading efficient market hypothesis
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