Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 14

WP(33/2026)527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Authors: Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implemen…

WP527. Does the messenger matter? Scenario credibility and information source in valuing health risk reductions from air pollution

Perceived realism of the policy scenario presented in stated preference (SP) valuation depends on trust in the scientific soundness of the projected policy outcomes (epistemic credibility) and in policymakers' capability to deliver them (implementation credibility). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) with 1,100 Polish urban residents, we examine how policy scenario credibility shapes preferences for air pollution mitigation reducing risks from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We contrast domain experts and artificial intelligence (AI) with no-source control as information sources on policy outcome projections. We find that epistemic and implementation credibility are strongly correlated; thus, we treat credibility as a single variable affecting preferences. Using a hybrid mixed logit (HMXL) model, we demonstrate that higher perceived credibility increases programme support, lowers cost sensitivity, and thus elevates willingness to pay (WTP) for the programme and morbidity risk reduction. We find no evidence that the information source influences preferences or scenario credibility.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.33.527
Boros Anna, Bartczak Anna
air pollution artificial intelligence chronic obstructive pulmonary disease credibility discrete choice experiment information source

WP(22/2026)516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfar…

WP516. When Risk Information Changes the Trip: Evidence from a Randomized Panel Combining Discrete Choice and Travel Cost Methods

Coastal bathing delivers large welfare benefits but exposes recreationists to low-probability, high-salience microbial risks that are likely to become more frequent under climate change. Because these risks are largely invisible, behaviour and welfare depend on beliefs and the effectiveness of risk communication. We provide causal evidence on how pathogen-risk information affects preferences and recreation demand using a three-wave panel survey of users of the Gulf of Gdańsk and the Vistula Lagoon (Poland). A stratified national sample identified 3,312 active coastal users in Wave 1 (spring 2024); 2,588 respondents returned in Wave 2 (summer 2024), where they were randomly assigned to receive either minimal information or increasingly detailed pathogen-risk scripts, and then completed a repeated beach-site discrete choice experiment. Approximately one year later (spring 2025), 1,507 users completed a policy-referendum discrete choice experiment on programs combining water-quality improvements, monitoring frequency, and household costs, alongside a repeated travel-cost module capturing multi-day trips and beach outings. Information treatments significantly increased objective and self-assessed knowledge and selectively raised willingness to travel/pay for risk-relevant attributes – especially frequent water-quality monitoring and water-quality improvements – while leaving unrelated attributes largely unchanged. Travel-cost models indicate that information affects trip-taking behaviour, yet the marginal travel-cost sensitivity remains stable, consistent with a demand shift rather than a change in the “price” slope. The results imply that welfare estimates are information-dependent and that credible risk communication can function as a scalable, low-cost complement to traditional coastal health-risk management.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.22.516
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zawadzki Wojciech, Skrzypek Katarzyna, Budziński Wiktor, Ščasnŷ Milan
Bathing water quality Pathogens Microbial contamination Risk communication Information treatments Discrete choice experiment (DCE) Travel cost method (TCM) Recreation demand Welfare measurement Consumer surplus Climate adaptation Coastal health risks Baltic Sea Poland

WP(19/2026)513. Price Discovery in Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange

Authors: Mbara Gilbert
We investigate the dynamics of price discovery between physical spot and financial futures markets for green coffee, a commodity uniquely characterized by the geographical and informational separation of its producers from global financial centers. U…

WP513. Price Discovery in Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange

We investigate the dynamics of price discovery between physical spot and financial futures markets for green coffee, a commodity uniquely characterized by the geographical and informational separation of its producers from global financial centers. Using dis-aggregated weekly prices from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) auction and corresponding International Coffee Exchange (ICE) futures, we estimate a vector error correction model to quantify the transmission of information. Our findings reveal that price discovery predominantly occurs in the physical spot market, which accounts for approximately 83% and 88% of the information and component shares, respectively. These results challenge the conventional view that futures markets are the primary locus of price formation for homogeneous commodities and highlight the critical role of local supply-demand fundamentals in a major producing region. The analysis further uncovers heterogeneity in price discovery contributions across different coffee grades, providing novel insights into the micro-structure of agricultural commodity markets.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.19.513
Mbara Gilbert
price discovery information shares cointegration coffee futures Nairobi Coffee Exchange commodity markets

WP(16/2026)510. Two Blind Walls: A Transferable Pedagogical Design for Art-Market Literacy Across Art and Economics Education

Authors: Kopczewski Tomasz, Laskowska-Lisicka Justyna, Lisicki Jan, Okhrimenko Kostiantyn, Potocki Tomasz
This article presents an ongoing pedagogical project at the intersection of economics and art education. It starts from a double blind wall: economics rarely uses the art market as a eaching laboratory, while art education often protects aesthetic ju…

WP510. Two Blind Walls: A Transferable Pedagogical Design for Art-Market Literacy Across Art and Economics Education

This article presents an ongoing pedagogical project at the intersection of economics and art education. It starts from a double blind wall: economics rarely uses the art market as a eaching laboratory, while art education often protects aesthetic judgement from market reductionism. We propose a transferable protocol combining diagnostic questions, valuation tasks, anchoring and signalling treatments, public-art perception probes, and dashboard feedback. Its first implementation uses Wojciech Fangor in Warsaw. The aim is not representative measurement, but a replicable design through which students observe how attention, information, narrative, and market signals shape the encounter with art.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.16.510
Kopczewski Tomasz, Laskowska-Lisicka Justyna, Lisicki Jan, Okhrimenko Kostiantyn, Potocki Tomasz
art valuation economics education art education anchoring signalling asymmetric information pedagogical narrative laboratory Know Thyself Wojciech Fangor replication

WP(26/2021)374. The Great Lockdown: information, noise and macroeconomic fluctuations

Authors: Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Wesołowski Grzegorz
This paper argues that not only actual lockdowns can affect economies, but also noisy information about them. We construct a New Keynesian model with imperfect information about how long the lockdown would last. On the one hand, a false signal about …

WP374. The Great Lockdown: information, noise and macroeconomic fluctuations

This paper argues that not only actual lockdowns can affect economies, but also noisy information about them. We construct a New Keynesian model with imperfect information about how long the lockdown would last. On the one hand, a false signal about the lockdown lowers consumption, investment, employment and output and this effect can be quantitatively sizable. On the other hand, a true information about a lockdown being introduced can also be misinterpreted and hence cause an impact on agents' decisions being quantitatively different from the one desired by the authorities. To the extent that the latter have less noisy information about future lockdowns than the private sector, they can reduce these undesired fluctuations by precisely communicating the lockdown policy. Importantly, under some circumstances only radical improvements in information precision are successful.


Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Wesołowski Grzegorz
Covid-19 lockdown imperfect information communication

WP(23/2021)371. Application of machine learning in quantitative investment strategies on global stock markets

Authors: Grudniewicz Jan, Ślepaczuk Robert
The thesis undertakes the subject of machine learning based quantitative investment strategies. Several technical analysis indicators were employed as inputs to machine learning models such as Neural Networks, K Nearest Neighbor, Regression Trees, Ra…

WP371. Application of machine learning in quantitative investment strategies on global stock markets

The thesis undertakes the subject of machine learning based quantitative investment strategies. Several technical analysis indicators were employed as inputs to machine learning models such as Neural Networks, K Nearest Neighbor, Regression Trees, Random Forests, Naïve Bayes classifiers, Bayesian Generalized Linear Models and Support Vector Machines. Models were used to generate trading signals on WIG20, DAX, S&P500 and selected CEE indices in the period between 2002-01-01 to 2020-10-30. Strategies were compared with each other and with the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy in terms of achieved levels of risk and return. Quality of estimation was evaluated on independent subsets and with the use of sensitivity analysis. The research results indicated that quantitative strategies generate better risk adjusted returns than passive strategies and that for the analysed indices predominantly Bayesian Generalized Linear Model and Naïve Bayes were the best performing models. More comprehensive rank approach based on the results for all analysed models and indices allowed to select Bayesian Generalized Linear Model as the model which on average generated the best results.


Grudniewicz Jan, Ślepaczuk Robert
quantitative investment strategies machine learning neural networks regression trees random forests support vector machine technical analysis equity stock indices developed and emerging markets information ratio

WP(7/2019)292. Role of information in the valuation of unfamiliar goods—the case of genetic resources in agriculture

Authors: Tienhaara Annika, Ahtiainen Heini, Pouta Eija, Czajkowski Mikołaj
The paper uses data from a discrete choice experiment to examine information effects on stated preferences for an unfamiliar environmental good, i.e. agricultural genetic resources. We define two groups of respondents based on their use of additional…

WP292. Role of information in the valuation of unfamiliar goods—the case of genetic resources in agriculture

The paper uses data from a discrete choice experiment to examine information effects on stated preferences for an unfamiliar environmental good, i.e. agricultural genetic resources. We define two groups of respondents based on their use of additional information provided in an internet survey, and model information use and its effect on individual preferences and scale using the logit and mixed logit models. Our findings indicate that both sociodemographic and attitudinal variables affect the use of information, with the respondent's age, gender, familiarity and perceptions of stakeholder responsibilities having a significant effect. The results show individual preference heterogeneity, but no significant differences in scale between the information groups after allowing the mean coefficients for the attributes to differ. Those who have used the additional information derive higher utility from the changes in the protection of agricultural genetic resources. Our results highlight the importance of genetic resource conservation and controlling for the effects of information use in choice experiment models for unfamiliar goods.


Tienhaara Annika, Ahtiainen Heini, Pouta Eija, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Agricultural genetic resources; Discrete choice experiments; Environmental valuation; Information effects

WP(1/2017)230. Stated Preference valuation methods: an evolving tool for understanding choices and informing policy

Authors: Hanley Nick, Czajkowski Mikołaj
We examine the value of Stated Preference (SP) valuation methods as part of the environmental economist's toolbox. We review a number of policy design issues where we believe SP methods have advantages over alternative approaches. We also discuss…

WP230. Stated Preference valuation methods: an evolving tool for understanding choices and informing policy

We examine the value of Stated Preference (SP) valuation methods as part of the environmental economist's toolbox. We review a number of policy design issues where we believe SP methods have advantages over alternative approaches. We also discuss the role of SP methods in exploring a few aspects of peoples' preferences and values which have wider implications for economics and behavioral sciences: (a) the effects of information, learning and knowledge; (b) testing the standard model of compensatory, rational choice; (c) the influence of behavioural levers such as social norms; and (d) the role of "deep" drivers of preference heterogeneity, such as personality and emotions. We also review what is known about the extent to which hypothetical choices reveal something about people's true preferences. Finally, we speculate on some areas where SP methods may be useful in the future.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/230/001
Hanley Nick, Czajkowski Mikołaj
stated preferences non-market valuation environmental economics methods information choice social norms preference heterogeneity

WP(20/2016)211. Information and Learning in Stated-Preference Studies

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hanley Nick, LaRiviere Jacob, Neilson William S., Simpson Katherine
We use experimental variation to influence how people learn a given amount of objective, scientific information about an unfamiliar public good. We then estimate the impact of treatment on valuations for that good in a stated preference survey. Our m…

WP211. Information and Learning in Stated-Preference Studies

We use experimental variation to influence how people learn a given amount of objective, scientific information about an unfamiliar public good. We then estimate the impact of treatment on valuations for that good in a stated preference survey. Our main treatment, a pre-survey multiple choice quiz about objective public good attributes, increased learning rates by over 60%. We find that despite increasing learning and retention rates, treatment had no statistically significant impact on mean nor variance of the distribution of valuations. We show with a very simple theoretical model this result is consistent with a model of confirmatory bias used by agents in stated preference surveys and inconsistent with other models of preference formation.


Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hanley Nick, LaRiviere Jacob, Neilson William S., Simpson Katherine
Information Updating Preferences Public Goods

WP(12/2016)203. What is the Causal Impact of Knowledge on Preferences in Stated Preference Studies?

Authors: LaRiviere Jacob, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hanley Nick, Simpson Katherine
This paper reports the results of a stated preference experiment designed to test for how information provided in a survey affects knowledge, and how knowledge affects preferences for a public good. A novel experimental design allows us to elicit sub…

WP203. What is the Causal Impact of Knowledge on Preferences in Stated Preference Studies?

This paper reports the results of a stated preference experiment designed to test for how information provided in a survey affects knowledge, and how knowledge affects preferences for a public good. A novel experimental design allows us to elicit subjects’ ex ante knowledge levels about a good’s attributes, exogenously vary how much new objective information about these attributes we provide to subjects, elicit subjects’ valuation for the good, and elicit posterior knowledge states about the same attributes. We find evidence of incomplete learning and fatigue: as subjects are told more information, their marginal learning rates decrease. We find there is no marginal impact of knowledge on the mean nor the variance of WTP for changes in the environmental good; but that ex ante knowledge does affect stated WTP. Our results are consistent with preference formation models of confirmation bias, costly search, or timing differences in learning and preference formation. Our results raise questions about the purpose and effects of providing information in stated preference studies.


LaRiviere Jacob, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hanley Nick, Simpson Katherine
Learning Information Behavioral Economics Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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