Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 22

WP(23/2026)517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Authors: Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated…

WP517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.23.517
Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
migration intentions migration behavior migration decision-making intention-behavior gap social media analysis Twitter data geolocated data linguistic cues migration prediction human mobility Poland

WP(9/2026)503. Topological Methods in Economics: From Equilibrium Existence to Topological Data Analysis

Authors: Ryłow Jakub
This paper surveys how the three branches of topology — differential, algebraic, and point-set — enter mathematical economics, and organises classical and contemporary results within a single conceptual frame. The classical layer rests on…

WP503. Topological Methods in Economics: From Equilibrium Existence to Topological Data Analysis

This paper surveys how the three branches of topology — differential, algebraic, and point-set — enter mathematical economics, and organises classical and contemporary results within a single conceptual frame. The classical layer rests on four pillars: Sard’s theorem and the preimage theorem, which underwrite Smale’s convexity-free proof of Walrasian equilibrium existence and Debreu’s local-uniqueness theorem for generic economies; the Brouwer and Kakutani fixed-point theorems behind the Arrow–Debreu existence proof; the Chichilnisky–Heal homotopy obstruction that ties continuous anonymous social choice to contractibility of preferred cones, and through it to the existence of competitive equilibrium; and the outer Hausdorff metric of Berliant and ten Raa, which makes location theory well-posed on the infinite-dimensional commodity space of land parcels. The contemporary layer turns the same apparatus toward data. The L¹ norm of H₁ persistence landscapes computed on rolling windows of asset returns rises three to eight weeks before the 2008 and 2015–2016 market crashes, outperforming the VIX in lead time; Ollivier–Ricci curvature on equity correlation networks supplies a complementary leading indicator of systemic fragility. Optimal transport recasts identifiability in matching markets as uniqueness of a dual Kantorovich plan, governed by the topology of the type-space supports. The manifold hypothesis makes nonparametric instrumental-variable convergence rates depend on intrinsic rather than ambient dimension. Together these results trace a coherent arc from fixed-point theorems to topological data analysis; a Morse-theoretic synthesis on the state manifold of an economy, linking equilibria, tâtonnement dynamics, and saddle-point crises, is stated as a research programme rather than a theorem.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.9.503
Ryłow Jakub
differential topology persistent homology topological data analysis Walrasian equilibrium optimal transport social choice Ollivier–Ricci curvature manifold hypothesis

WP(4/2024)440. Welfare and economic implications of universal child benefits

Authors: Kolasa Aleksandra
Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effe…

WP440. Welfare and economic implications of universal child benefits

Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effects. However, given their large-scale implementation, such programs can have sizable general equilibrium effects. The aim of this paper is to study the long-run implications of universal child benefits within a theoretical framework that can capture the complexities of household decisions regarding consumption, labor participation, and the timing of children. To this end, I develop an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic earnings risk, infertility shocks, and endogenous temporal fertility. According to the model simulations, universal child benefits lead to a reduction in the spacing between children and, on average, lower maternal age at childbirth for all births. This, in turn, alleviates some of the negative aggregate effects typically associated with redistributive policies, but has a detrimental impact on the average quality of children. Finally, universal child benefits increase ex-ante welfare by 0.42% of lifetime adult consumption, significantly outperforming broad-based transfer policies not tied to the number of children.


Kolasa Aleksandra
universal child benefits infertility risk temporal fertility social welfare general equilibrium models

WP(25/2020)331. Energy demand management and social norms – the case study in Poland

Authors: Gołębiowska Bernadeta, Bartczak Anna, Czajkowski Mikołaj
The study aims to investigate the impact of social norms and the financial motivation on the disutility of Polish households from energy management. We analyzed consumers’ preferences for the new Demand-Side Management (DSM) programs. We applie…

WP331. Energy demand management and social norms – the case study in Poland

The study aims to investigate the impact of social norms and the financial motivation on the disutility of Polish households from energy management. We analyzed consumers’ preferences for the new Demand-Side Management (DSM) programs. We applied a choice experiment (CE) framework for various electricity contracts that implied external control of electricity usage. Based on the hybrid model, we proved that people with higher descriptive social norms about electricity consumption are less sensitive to the level of compensation and more responsive to the number of blackouts. People who stated they would sign the contract because of the financial reasons are less sensitive to the external control of electricity consumption. They are less inclined towards the status quo option. Poland’s energy policy focuses on energy efficiency, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This study may contribute to understanding the decisions of households and provide insights into the DSM option in Poland.


Gołębiowska Bernadeta, Bartczak Anna, Czajkowski Mikołaj
choice experiment demand-side management electricity social norms willingness to accept

WP(14/2020)320. Why wealth inequality differs between post-socialist countries?

Authors: Brzeziński Michał, Sałach Katarzyna
We provide the first attempt to understand how differences in households' socio-demographic and economic characteristics account for disparities in wealth inequality between five post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. We use 2013…

WP320. Why wealth inequality differs between post-socialist countries?

We provide the first attempt to understand how differences in households' socio-demographic and economic characteristics account for disparities in wealth inequality between five post-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe. We use 2013/2014 data from the second wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and the reweighted Oaxaca-Blinder-like decompositions based on recentered influence function (RIF) regressions. Our results show that the differences in homeownership rates account for up to 42% of the difference in wealth inequality measured with the Gini index and for as much as 63-109% in case of the P50/P25 percentile ratio. Differences in homeownership rates are related to alternative designs of housing tax policies but could be also driven by other factors. We correct for the problem of the 'missing rich' in household surveys by calibrating the HFCS survey weights to top wealth shares adjusted using wealth data from national rich lists. Empirically, the correction procedure strengthens the importance of homeownership rates in accounting for cross-country wealth inequality differences, which suggests that our results are not sensitive to the significant underestimation of top wealth observations in the HFCS.


Brzeziński Michał, Sałach Katarzyna
wealth inequality decomposition recentered influence function (RIF) regressions survey weight calibration Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) post-socialist transition Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) housing homeownership missing rich

WP(10/2019)295. Impact of social comparison on DSM in Poland

Authors: Gołębiowska Bernadeta, Bartczak Anna, Budziński Wiktor
Poland's energy strategy prioritizes long-term energy security, energy efficiency, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The country's progress toward sustainable development requires in-depth analyses of possible solutions. In our study we inve…

WP295. Impact of social comparison on DSM in Poland

Poland's energy strategy prioritizes long-term energy security, energy efficiency, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The country's progress toward sustainable development requires in-depth analyses of possible solutions. In our study we investigate consumers' preferences for Demand Side Management programs for electricity usage in Poland. We apply a discrete Choice Experiment framework for various electricity contracts implying the external control of electricity usage. The main objective of the study is to investigate the value of potential disutility of Polish households from the energy management. Additionally, we elaborate on the effect of social comparison between households' electricity use on the acceptance of new electricity contracts. The results suggest that people require substantial compensations to accept the external control of electricity in extreme cases and in weekdays during certain hours. Turning to the social comparison, we were expecting that people with a higher electricity usage per person in a household will require lower compensations, however we observe the opposite result. The respondents who were informed that they use more electricity than an average person in his administrative district seem to feel higher discomfort from the external electricity control. This suggest that the effect of social comparison might be overbalanced by the differences in perceived utility from electricity usage.


Gołębiowska Bernadeta, Bartczak Anna, Budziński Wiktor
choice experiment demand side management electricity social comparison willingness to accept

WP(5/2019)290. Unraveling local preferences and willingness to pay for different management scenarios: A choice experiment to Biosphere Reserve management

Authors: Castillo-Eguskitza Nekane, Hoyos David, Onaindia Miren, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Economic valuation of ecosystem services has emerged as a valuable tool to promote conservation and sustainable land management. Our study adds to this literature, by reporting the results of a discrete choice experiment used to analyse local populat…

WP290. Unraveling local preferences and willingness to pay for different management scenarios: A choice experiment to Biosphere Reserve management

Economic valuation of ecosystem services has emerged as a valuable tool to promote conservation and sustainable land management. Our study adds to this literature, by reporting the results of a discrete choice experiment used to analyse local population preferences and willingness-to-pay for selected ecosystem services resulting from different management scenarios in the Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve (Biscay, Spain). The ecosystem services considered include quality of water bodies, agricultural production, native forest protection, biodiversity, and recreation. The results indicate that the local population is willing to financially support a new management plan focused on the improvement of ecosystem health and landscape multifunctionality and sustainability, with recreation being the least valued ecosystem service. These findings may be used to inform conservation and management policies to maximize social well-being. They can also help to prioritize investments and allocation of funding and hence minimise land use conflicts.


Castillo-Eguskitza Nekane, Hoyos David, Onaindia Miren, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Ecosystem services discrete choice experiment social preferences economic valuation Urdaibai Biosphere Reserve

WP(13/2018)272. Social norms and pro-environment behaviours: heterogeneous response to signals

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zagórska Katarzyna, Hanley Nick
Previous research on pro-environment behaviours demonstrated an effect of communicating social norms to subjects. In this paper, we extend this work by isolating the effects of information about (i) the absolute level (strength) of the norm (ii) its …

WP272. Social norms and pro-environment behaviours: heterogeneous response to signals

Previous research on pro-environment behaviours demonstrated an effect of communicating social norms to subjects. In this paper, we extend this work by isolating the effects of information about (i) the absolute level (strength) of the norm (ii) its geographic proximity (iii) whether the norm is stated in relative terms. We also show how previous pro-environmental behaviours interact with social norm information. The context is a stated preference choice experiment on recycling behaviours by households in Poland. The main finding to emerge is that social norm effects on preferences seem to be very context-dependent; there is no evidence of generalizable effects which would be useful to policy designers.


DOI: http://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/272/013
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Zagórska Katarzyna, Hanley Nick
recycling social norms stated preferences choice modelling

WP(5/2018)264. Time and money transfers: social networks and kinship in migration

Authors: Nicińska Anna
This study investigates transfers given by different donors to parents in need for help whose children migrated abroad. We develop a formal model of time and money transfers given to the elderly parents by kin and non-kin individuals taking into acco…

WP264. Time and money transfers: social networks and kinship in migration

This study investigates transfers given by different donors to parents in need for help whose children migrated abroad. We develop a formal model of time and money transfers given to the elderly parents by kin and non-kin individuals taking into account the elderly's social network and proximity between transfer's donor and recipient. We find that migrant children specialize in money and non-migrant children in time transfers, provided that the difference in wages and proximity between siblings is substantial, and parental social networks do not compress. The dynamics in the size and composition of parent's social network triggered by child's migration affects the transfers received by parents not only from children, but also from other individuals. The overall effect on total time transfers might be positive even if donors decide to decrease their transfers of time, provided that the set of donors is enlarged.


DOI: http://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/264/005
Nicińska Anna
private transfers care time transfers money transfers kinship family social network proximity migration ageing elderly

WP(1/2017)230. Stated Preference valuation methods: an evolving tool for understanding choices and informing policy

Authors: Hanley Nick, Czajkowski Mikołaj
We examine the value of Stated Preference (SP) valuation methods as part of the environmental economist's toolbox. We review a number of policy design issues where we believe SP methods have advantages over alternative approaches. We also discuss…

WP230. Stated Preference valuation methods: an evolving tool for understanding choices and informing policy

We examine the value of Stated Preference (SP) valuation methods as part of the environmental economist's toolbox. We review a number of policy design issues where we believe SP methods have advantages over alternative approaches. We also discuss the role of SP methods in exploring a few aspects of peoples' preferences and values which have wider implications for economics and behavioral sciences: (a) the effects of information, learning and knowledge; (b) testing the standard model of compensatory, rational choice; (c) the influence of behavioural levers such as social norms; and (d) the role of "deep" drivers of preference heterogeneity, such as personality and emotions. We also review what is known about the extent to which hypothetical choices reveal something about people's true preferences. Finally, we speculate on some areas where SP methods may be useful in the future.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/230/001
Hanley Nick, Czajkowski Mikołaj
stated preferences non-market valuation environmental economics methods information choice social norms preference heterogeneity
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