Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 6

WP(23/2026)517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Authors: Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated…

WP517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.23.517
Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
migration intentions migration behavior migration decision-making intention-behavior gap social media analysis Twitter data geolocated data linguistic cues migration prediction human mobility Poland

WP(24/2023)431. Two possible reasons behind the reluctance of low-skilled workers to migrate to generous welfare states

Authors: Byra Łukasz
This paper provides two possible explanations for the mixed evidence regarding migration by low-skilled workers to generous welfare states. Using a model of unrestricted migration to a developed, destination country, which provides a direct and equal…

WP431. Two possible reasons behind the reluctance of low-skilled workers to migrate to generous welfare states

This paper provides two possible explanations for the mixed evidence regarding migration by low-skilled workers to generous welfare states. Using a model of unrestricted migration to a developed, destination country, which provides a direct and equal social benefit to all its residents, we study the impact of the benefit in a country on the size of its low-skilled immigrant population under the assumption that migration is driven by an international difference in returns to skills, employment opportunities in the destination country, and by the generosity of the benefit in that country. We find that the social benefit affects the size of the country’s low-skilled immigrant population not only directly, via the difference between the benefit and its cost in the form of taxation, but also via two indirect channels. The benefit incentivizes taking up low-skilled jobs among the destination country’s native residents, which adversely affects wages of low-skilled workers in that country, and it increases the risk of unemployment of low-skilled workers therein. Prospective low-skilled migrants view these side effects of the benefit as “stay away” factors. Simulation of the model based on 2018 data for EU-15 economies without Luxembourg highlights the importance of indirect channels in curtailing the inflow of low-skilled migrants to a generous welfare state. When only direct channels are accounted for, semi-elasticities of the size of the low-skilled immigrant population with respect to the social benefit are between 0.2 and 0.54. When indirect channels are allowed to play their roles, the positive relationship between the social benefit and low-skilled immigration is significantly reduced; the semi-elasticities range from 0.13 to 0.4. At the level of the model’s fundamentals, the variation in semi-elasticities between EU-15 countries is largely explained by differences in the size of the welfare state and in efficiency of the labor market across these countries.


Byra Łukasz
Welfare migration Migration by low-skilled workers Skill formation in a destination country Unemployment in a destination country

WP(1/2021)349. Causes of the spatially uneven outflow of Warsaw inhabitants to the city’s suburbs: an economic analysis of the problem

Authors: Bogusz Honorata
In this article I provide a quantitative analysis of suburban migration patterns in Warsaw, Poland. Basing this analysis on the extended gravity model of migration, an econometric panel model was built to identify key pulling factors for migrants who…

WP349. Causes of the spatially uneven outflow of Warsaw inhabitants to the city’s suburbs: an economic analysis of the problem

In this article I provide a quantitative analysis of suburban migration patterns in Warsaw, Poland. Basing this analysis on the extended gravity model of migration, an econometric panel model was built to identify key pulling factors for migrants who move from Warsaw to its suburbs. The role of residential lot prices and the resulting possible endogeneity are also discussed. It was confirmed that migrants choose boroughs of greater population density that have higher average relative income and more amenities, but at a smaller distance to Warsaw’s city center and with lower residential lot prices relative to those in Warsaw.


Bogusz Honorata
gravity model of migration suburbanization Mundlak terms Correlated Random Effects

WP(34/2020)340. What factors determine unequal suburbanisation? New evidence from Warsaw, Poland

Authors: Bogusz Honorata, Winnicki Szymon, Wójcik Piotr
This article investigates the causes of spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban boroughs. The method is based on the gravity model of migration extended by additional measures of possible pulling factors. We report a novel approach to …

WP340. What factors determine unequal suburbanisation? New evidence from Warsaw, Poland

This article investigates the causes of spatially uneven migration from Warsaw to its suburban boroughs. The method is based on the gravity model of migration extended by additional measures of possible pulling factors. We report a novel approach to modelling suburbanisation: several linear and non-linear predictive models are estimated and explainable AI methods are used to interpret the shape of relationships between the dependent variable and the most important regressors. It is confirmed that migrants choose boroughs of better amenities and of smaller distance to Warsaw city center.


Bogusz Honorata, Winnicki Szymon, Wójcik Piotr
suburbanisation gravity model of migration machine learning models explainable artificial intelligence

WP(24/2020)330. Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area

Authors: Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Michał
We investigate the impact of demographics on the natural rate of interest (NRI) in the euro area, with a particular focus on the role played by economic openness, migrations and pension system design. To this end, we construct a life-cycle model and …

WP330. Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area

We investigate the impact of demographics on the natural rate of interest (NRI) in the euro area, with a particular focus on the role played by economic openness, migrations and pension system design. To this end, we construct a life-cycle model and calibrate it to match the life-cycle profiles from HFCS data. We show that population aging contributes significantly to the decline in the NRI, explaining about two-thirds of its secular decline between 1985 and 2030. Openness to international capital flows has not been important in driving the EA real interest rate so far, but will become a significant factor preventing its further decline in the coming decades, when aging in Europe accelerates relative to the rest of the world. Of two possible pension reforms, only an increase in the retirement age can revert the downward trend on the equilibrium interest rate while a fall in the replacement rate would make its fall even deeper. The demographic pressure on the Eurozone NRI can be alleviated by increased immigration, but only to a small extent and with a substantial lag.


Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Michał
population aging natural interest rate life-cycle models pension systems migrations

WP(5/2018)264. Time and money transfers: social networks and kinship in migration

Authors: Nicińska Anna
This study investigates transfers given by different donors to parents in need for help whose children migrated abroad. We develop a formal model of time and money transfers given to the elderly parents by kin and non-kin individuals taking into acco…

WP264. Time and money transfers: social networks and kinship in migration

This study investigates transfers given by different donors to parents in need for help whose children migrated abroad. We develop a formal model of time and money transfers given to the elderly parents by kin and non-kin individuals taking into account the elderly's social network and proximity between transfer's donor and recipient. We find that migrant children specialize in money and non-migrant children in time transfers, provided that the difference in wages and proximity between siblings is substantial, and parental social networks do not compress. The dynamics in the size and composition of parent's social network triggered by child's migration affects the transfers received by parents not only from children, but also from other individuals. The overall effect on total time transfers might be positive even if donors decide to decrease their transfers of time, provided that the set of donors is enlarged.


DOI: http://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/264/005
Nicińska Anna
private transfers care time transfers money transfers kinship family social network proximity migration ageing elderly
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