Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 44

WP(27/2026)521. What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Authors: Jusypenko Bartosz
Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respond…

WP521. What Happens Without Conservation? The Prospect of Heritage Loss in Contingent Valuation

Economic valuation of heritage conservation depends on what respondents expect to happen without the implementation of a proposed intervention, yet this no-program counterfactual is often left implicit. We examine whether explicitly directing respondents to consider potential heritage loss affects stated willingness to pay (WTP) for renovation of a building and whether the contribution of information about adaptive reuse depends on whether such loss enters the valuation decision. A contingent valuation survey of 452 adult residents living near Pückler Palace, a deteriorating historic building in Poland, used a 2 × 2 randomized design combining a loss-consideration prompt with information about a genuine proposal to adapt the renovated palace as the new premises of the Museum of Ceramics. WTP was elicited as the maximum mandatory one-off levy respondents would support within an advisory-referendum framework. Among respondents not assigned to the loss-prompt treatment, a post-valuation question identified spontaneous consideration of heritage loss. Two-part models separated the probability of positive WTP from the amount stated among positive responses. Randomized treatment estimates indicated higher WTP under the loss prompt when reuse information was absent. The unconditional mean difference was positive but imprecisely estimated, while the corresponding difference among positive-WTP respondents was statistically significant. In the conditional models, respondents assigned to the loss prompt had approximately twice the odds of positive WTP and a 61% higher conditional geometric mean of positive WTP than that of unprompted respondents who did not report spontaneous loss consideration. Among unprompted respondents, spontaneous loss consideration—reported by 54%—was associated with a 92% higher conditional geometric mean of positive WTP than in unprompted respondents who did not report such consideration. Evidence that reuse information contributed more when loss was not considered was suggestive rather than conclusive. The findings show that common information about an asset’s current condition need not produce a common understanding of its expected future without the proposed intervention. Stated preference surveys should therefore specify this trajectory with sufficient clarity and credibility that respondents are evaluating a common underlying policy change.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.27.521
Jusypenko Bartosz
cultural heritage historic preservation adaptive reuse contingent valuation stated preferences prospect of loss

WP(18/2026)512. Painting Price: A Machine Learning Approach to Art Valuation. Proof of Concept and Market Structure Diagnosis

Authors: Okhrimenko Kostiantyn
This paper investigates the feasibility of predicting art prices using machine learning methods applied to a dataset of 20,905 paintings and drawings scraped from the Artsper online marketplace. We test tree-based ensemble models (Decision Tree, Rand…

WP512. Painting Price: A Machine Learning Approach to Art Valuation. Proof of Concept and Market Structure Diagnosis

This paper investigates the feasibility of predicting art prices using machine learning methods applied to a dataset of 20,905 paintings and drawings scraped from the Artsper online marketplace. We test tree-based ensemble models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGboost) and deep learning architectures (MLP, CNN, Fusion) on both tabular metadata and hand-crafted image features. Results consistently show poor predictive performance across all model types and feature sets. We argue that this outcome is not a methodological failure but a substantive finding: it constitutes a diagnosis of the market structure of contemporary art. Drawing on hedonic pricing theory (Rosen 1974), the sociology of cultural fields (Bourdieu 1993), and the economics of valuation (Velthuis 2005; Beckert and Rössel 2013), we propose a three-layer model of art price determinants: physical attributes (observable and partially captured by models), visual-aesthetic features (observable but poorly quantifiable), and narrative-reputational capital (largely unobservable in cross-sectional platform data).


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.18.512
Okhrimenko Kostiantyn
art market machine learning hedonic pricing art valuation cultural economics XGboost CNN

WP(16/2026)510. Two Blind Walls: A Transferable Pedagogical Design for Art-Market Literacy Across Art and Economics Education

Authors: Kopczewski Tomasz, Laskowska-Lisicka Justyna, Lisicki Jan, Okhrimenko Kostiantyn, Potocki Tomasz
This article presents an ongoing pedagogical project at the intersection of economics and art education. It starts from a double blind wall: economics rarely uses the art market as a eaching laboratory, while art education often protects aesthetic ju…

WP510. Two Blind Walls: A Transferable Pedagogical Design for Art-Market Literacy Across Art and Economics Education

This article presents an ongoing pedagogical project at the intersection of economics and art education. It starts from a double blind wall: economics rarely uses the art market as a eaching laboratory, while art education often protects aesthetic judgement from market reductionism. We propose a transferable protocol combining diagnostic questions, valuation tasks, anchoring and signalling treatments, public-art perception probes, and dashboard feedback. Its first implementation uses Wojciech Fangor in Warsaw. The aim is not representative measurement, but a replicable design through which students observe how attention, information, narrative, and market signals shape the encounter with art.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.16.510
Kopczewski Tomasz, Laskowska-Lisicka Justyna, Lisicki Jan, Okhrimenko Kostiantyn, Potocki Tomasz
art valuation economics education art education anchoring signalling asymmetric information pedagogical narrative laboratory Know Thyself Wojciech Fangor replication

WP(4/2026)498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

Authors: Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuat…

WP498. Behavioral Biases in Stated Preference Valuation of Mortality Risk Reductions: Cost Vector, Anchoring, and Scope Effects

This study investigates how behavioral biases influence stated preference valuation of mortality risk reductions, commonly summarized as the value of a statistical life (VSL). Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) combined with a contingent valuation double-bounded dichotomous choice and an open-ended follow-up, we elicit individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for cardiovascular mortality risk reductions. In a randomized design, we varied the cost attribute across three cost range treatments and manipulated information disclosure and feedback to examine three behavioral phenomena: cost vector effects (whether the range of costs presented affects WTP), scope insensitivity (whether WTP scales appropriately with the magnitude of the risk reduction), and anchoring (whether initial cost cues affect subsequent responses). Our results show that mean VSL estimates can vary by up to ~25% between cost treatments. Furthermore, WTP responses exhibit partial scope insensitivity – larger risk reductions do not proportionally increase WTP – indicating a deviation from theoretical expectations. Importantly, we find no strong evidence of anchoring: neither revealing all attribute levels upfront, nor starting with extreme cost levels, nor providing feedback on quiz questions significantly affected respondents’ choices or WTP. Our findings underscore the need for careful survey design. Even if VSL distributions remain statistically similar across cost frames, substantial shifts in mean magnitudes could be consequential for policy. We call for standardized guidelines on cost attribute selection and survey protocols to mitigate bias, ensuring that stated preference methods yield reliable welfare estimates for health policy decisions.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.4.498
Zawadzki Wojciech, Andersson Henrik, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Hole Arne Risa
value of statistical life (VSL) stated preference (SP) contingent valuation (CV) behavioral biases anchoring effect scope insensitivity discrete choice experiment (DCE) willingness to pay (WTP) mortality risk reduction cardiovascular diseases

WP(24/2025)487. State Aid for Broadband and Crowding Out of Private Investment: Evidence from the French Market

Authors: Bourreau Marc, Grzybowski Łukasz, Muñoz-Acevedo Ángela
In this paper, we investigate the potential crowding out of private investment by public subsidies in the deployment of broadband fiber networks. We estimate a model of fiber entry using a rich dataset on fiber deployment for more than 34,000 municip…

WP487. State Aid for Broadband and Crowding Out of Private Investment: Evidence from the French Market

In this paper, we investigate the potential crowding out of private investment by public subsidies in the deployment of broadband fiber networks. We estimate a model of fiber entry using a rich dataset on fiber deployment for more than 34,000 municipalities in mainland France from 2014 to 2019. We then assess whether private investment would have occurred in subsidized municipalities in the absence of state aid. We find that in 36% of cases, public subsidies were allocated to municipalities where private entry would have occurred within three years. We estimate that about 902 million euros of the total 2,203 million euros in total subsidies disbursed by the end of 2019 may have crowded out private investment. However, we also show that the French broadband plan accelerated fiber coverage in subsidized municipalities in the early stages of deployment.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.24.487
Bourreau Marc, Grzybowski Łukasz, Muñoz-Acevedo Ángela
State Aid; Ex-Post Evaluation; Broadband; Entry; Coverage; Crowding Out

WP(11/2025)474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White
Heritage authorities must decide which places to protect, but valuation studies usually examine a single named site. We develop a common way to describe buildings, historic sites and landscapes, and test it in a choice experiment with 1,613 Victorian…

WP474. Breaking New Ground in Heritage Valuation: A Comprehensive Use of Discrete Choice Experiments

Heritage authorities must decide which places to protect, but valuation studies usually examine a single named site. We develop a common way to describe buildings, historic sites and landscapes, and test it in a choice experiment with 1,613 Victorian respondents. The results show higher mean willingness to pay for nineteenth-century age and excellent condition in all three categories, while the value attached to distance differs across them. Images also affect stated values in the later survey designs, although many individual image comparisons remain uncertain. We show how the estimated characteristics combine in an illustrative courthouse profile. A shared set of characteristics makes comparisons possible, but it does not make the monetary values interchangeable or establish that they transfer to new places. The framework can help structure heritage appraisal while making those limits explicit.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.11.474
Czajkowski Mikołaj, Jusypenko Bartosz, Ben White
cultural heritage historic preservation non-market valuation discrete choice experiment public preferences

WP(20/2023)427. Ensembling ARIMAX Model in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on Commodities Market

Authors: Jakubowski Paweł, Ślepaczuk Robert, Windorbski Franciszek
This paper presents the results of investment strategies based on predictions from an ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARIMAX/ARIMAX-Garch) model, using the prices of selected commodities and companies from the DJIA index as explanatory variables. The…

WP427. Ensembling ARIMAX Model in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on Commodities Market

This paper presents the results of investment strategies based on predictions from an ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARIMAX/ARIMAX-Garch) model, using the prices of selected commodities and companies from the DJIA index as explanatory variables. The explained variables are four Invesco ETF funds (DBE, DBA, DBP, DBB) corresponding to baskets of energy, agricultural, precious, and industrial metals. The models are optimized using the Walk-Forward technique, and the selection of exogenous variables is based on Granger causality tests. By analyzing the results, we conclude that ARIMAX/ARIMAX-Garch models are not useful tools for making buy or sell decisions for the selected commodity baskets. Out of the 80 estimated models, 44 outperform the Buy & Hold strategy, however, none achieved statistically significant results. Combining individual models into an investment portfolio reduced the risk without significantly reducing the profit, enabling us to consistently beat the benchmark. We also observe that using returns of commodities listed on stock exchanges is more effective than using stock returns. Sensitivity analysis shows instability in results with changes in the length of the training and testing windows. The highest annual return rate of 15.37% from 02.01.2008 to 01.12.2022 was characterized by an ARIMAX model with one commodity exogenous variable.


Jakubowski Paweł, Ślepaczuk Robert, Windorbski Franciszek
ARIMA(X) GARCH ARIMA(X)/GARCH Algorithmic Investment Strategies Granger Causality Investment Performance Evaluation Trading Systems Forecasting Models

WP(19/2023)426. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland

Authors: Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zawojska Ewa, Baldin Andrea, Bille Trine
Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefit…

WP426. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland

Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefits cannot be assessed through market transactions. While original non-market valuation studies require substantial budgets and time, a benefit transfer approach offers an alternative. It enables the application of empirical estimates from existing original studies conducted at one site to approximate the value at another site. This study provides the first international benefit transfer for performing arts and examines the reliability of various benefit transfer approaches. We use empirical data from two separate stated preference valuation surveys conducted in Denmark and in Poland. Our results suggest that the benefit function transfer accounting for differences in purchasing power parity between the countries can generate transfer errors as low as 3-6%, indicating high reliability of the transferred values.


Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zawojska Ewa, Baldin Andrea, Bille Trine
international benefit transfer performing arts contingent valuation discrete choice experiment transfer errors

WP(27/2022)403. What makes Punks worthy? Valuation of Non-Fungible Tokens based on the CryptoPunks collection using the hedonic pricing method

Authors: Plachimowicz Ewelina, Wójcik Piotr
This article focuses on an attempt to value Non-Fungible Tokens from the CryptoPunks collection. Based on the data from January 2021 to July 2021, a hedonic pricing model was built, based on the transaction history and characteristics of a given NFT,…

WP403. What makes Punks worthy? Valuation of Non-Fungible Tokens based on the CryptoPunks collection using the hedonic pricing method

This article focuses on an attempt to value Non-Fungible Tokens from the CryptoPunks collection. Based on the data from January 2021 to July 2021, a hedonic pricing model was built, based on the transaction history and characteristics of a given NFT, as well as external markets variables - cryptocurrency prices (Bitcoin and Ethereum), natural gas prices and the popularity of the collection in social media (Twitter). According to the literature, we decided to build three regression models: Ordinary Least Squares model, XGBoost algorithm and bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model. Based on the results, we were able to prove that such complex issues as NFT valuation require more advanced methods than the classical regression model. In addition, we proved that one of the most important categories of variables in the case of NFT valuation is the history of token sales and its characteristics, indicating a particular rarity. Moreover, we have shown that the cryptocurrency and natural gas market is not an important factor in the NFT valuation. Finally, we proved that the increase in the popularity of tokens in social media translates into an increase in NFT prices, and this is an important element when trying to valuate tokens.


Plachimowicz Ewelina, Wójcik Piotr
NFT Non-Fungible Token pricing valuation luxury goods cryptocurrencies

WP(19/2022)395. Estimating environmental damages of a tailings dam failure: The case of the Fundão Dam in Brazil

Authors: Czajkowski Mikołaj, Meade Norman, Seroa da Motta Ronaldo, Ortiz Ramon Arigoni, Welsh Mike, Blanc Gleiciane Carvalho
We present the results of a contingent valuation study aimed at estimating the monetary value of environmental and cultural/heritage injuries caused by the Fundão (tailings) Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 as perceived by the Brazilian populatio…

WP395. Estimating environmental damages of a tailings dam failure: The case of the Fundão Dam in Brazil

We present the results of a contingent valuation study aimed at estimating the monetary value of environmental and cultural/heritage injuries caused by the Fundão (tailings) Dam failure in Brazil in 2015 as perceived by the Brazilian population. While the valuation literature considering mining-related externalities is considerable, valuation studies of injuries resulting from mining incidents are scarce and most available damage assessments apply market valuation methods while rarely considering environmental and other nonmarket-valued impacts. The flooding and the release of tailings from the dam failure led to injuries to  sediments, watercourse opacity, and oxygenation, changes in riparian morphology, loss of human life, mortality to fish and wildlife, changes in the food chain and more along the 675 km watercourse of the Doce River. This was arguably the greatest environmental and cultural/heritage  injury ever caused by a single tailings dam collapse. The study followed state-of-the-art recommendations for the development, administration, and data analysis of stated-preference valuation methods. The survey of a representative sample of 5,195 Brazilian urban households revealed that the average lower-bound willingness-to-pay estimate to avoid a similar incident in the near future was 137 USD and the parametric-based estimate was 230 USD per household, which aggregates to 7.96 or 12.91 billion USD, respectively. This corresponds to environmental damages of 176 or 295 USD per m3 of tailings released.


Czajkowski Mikołaj, Meade Norman, Seroa da Motta Ronaldo, Ortiz Ramon Arigoni, Welsh Mike, Blanc Gleiciane Carvalho
tailings dam failure nonmarket environmental damages contingent valuation willingness to pay