Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 3

WP(3/2023)410. How Well Can Experts Predict Farmers’ Choices in Risky Gambles?

Authors: Schaak Henning, Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Zagórska Katarzyna
Risk is ubiquitous in agriculture and a core interest of agricultural economists. While farmers’ risk preferences are well studied, there is limited knowledge on the perspectives of other stakeholders on farmers’ risk preferences. We addr…

WP410. How Well Can Experts Predict Farmers’ Choices in Risky Gambles?

Risk is ubiquitous in agriculture and a core interest of agricultural economists. While farmers’ risk preferences are well studied, there is limited knowledge on the perspectives of other stakeholders on farmers’ risk preferences. We address this gap by eliciting predictions for a multiple-price-list task from 561 students, farm advisors, and experts from Italy, Poland, Croatia, Spain, France, Sweden, and the Netherlands. First, we investigate whether the risk preferences of farmers from different European production systems differ in terms of predictability for the experts. Second, we compare the predictions of different groups of experts, as well as their accuracy. Third, we evaluate whether the accuracy of predictions can be improved by changing incentive mechanisms. Overall, we find substantial variation in individual predictions. Yet, average predictions are close to the averages of the observed responses of farmers. We find that an international group of researchers in experimental economics provides more accurate predictions than farm advisors and other experts or students of agriculture. Differences in predictions by production systems are small. Incentivizing predictions by either a tournament scheme (the best prediction receives a reward) or high accuracy (randomly selected participants are paid depending on the quality of their prediction) do not strongly affect the accuracy, but may slightly reduce noise in the predictions.


Schaak Henning, Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Zagórska Katarzyna
Risk attitudes Expert predictions Expert forecasts Multiple prices lists Meta-science Experimental economics

WP(24/2022)400. Farmers' risk preferences in eleven European farming systems: A multi-country replication of Bocquého et al. (2014)

Authors: Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Baaken Marieke Cornelia, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Kuhfuss Laure, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Lapierre Margaux, Lefebvre Marianne, Matzdorf Bettina, Ott Edward, Paparella Antonio, Quendler Erika, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, SchulzeChristoph, ŠumradaTanja, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Willinger Marc, Zagórska Katarzyna
We replicate Bocquého et al. (2014), who used multiple price lists to investigate risk preferences of 107 French farmers. We collect new data from 1,430 participants in eleven European farming systems. In agreement with the original study, far…

WP400. Farmers' risk preferences in eleven European farming systems: A multi-country replication of Bocquého et al. (2014)

We replicate Bocquého et al. (2014), who used multiple price lists to investigate risk preferences of 107 French farmers. We collect new data from 1,430 participants in eleven European farming systems. In agreement with the original study, farmers’ risk preferences are best described by Cumulative Prospect Theory. Structural model estimates show that farmers in the new samples are, on average, less loss averse and more susceptible to probability distortion than in the original study. Explorative analyses indicate differences between estimation approaches, as well as heterogeneity between and within samples. We discuss challenges in replications of economic experiments with farmers across farming contexts.


Rommel Jens, Sagebiel Julian, Baaken Marieke Cornelia, Barreiro-Hurlé Jesús, Bougherara Douadia, Cembalo Luigi, Cerjak Marija, Čop Tajana, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Espinosa-Goded María, Höhler Julia, Kuhfuss Laure, Lagerkvist Carl-Johan, Lapierre Margaux, Lefebvre Marianne, Matzdorf Bettina, Ott Edward, Paparella Antonio, Quendler Erika, Rodriguez-Entrena Macario, SchulzeChristoph, ŠumradaTanja, Tensi Annika, Thoyer Sophie, Tomić Maksan Marina, Vecchio Riccardo, Willinger Marc, Zagórska Katarzyna
Risk Attitudes Agriculture Cumulative Prospect Theory Expected Utility Theory Artefactual Field Experiment

WP(1/2018)260. Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Authors: Zawojska Ewa, Bartczak Anna, Czajkowski Mikołaj
Incentivising respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will ha…

WP260. Disentangling the effects of policy and payment consequentiality and risk attitudes on stated preferences

Incentivising respondents to truthfully reveal their preferences in stated preference surveys requires that they believe their survey responses can influence decisions related to the outcome in question (policy consequentiality) and that they will have to bear their share of coercive cost if the outcome is implemented (payment consequentiality). We investigate the effects of these two aspects of consequentiality on stated preferences in a field survey concerning renewable energy development in Poland. We find that beliefs in policy and payment consequentiality strengthen respondents' interest in having the project implemented, but policy consequentiality decreases, while payment consequentiality increases their sensitivity to the project cost, thus increasing or decreasing their willingness to pay, respectively. We conclude that the two components of consequentiality should be addressed separately in stated preference studies. Additionally, we inquire the theoretically speculated links between respondents' perceptions about policy and payment consequentiality and their risk attitudes, finding no significant relationship.


DOI: https://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/260/001
Zawojska Ewa, Bartczak Anna, Czajkowski Mikołaj
stated preferences discrete choice experiment policy consequentiality payment consequentiality risk attitudes renewable energy
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