Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 10

WP(6/2025)469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

Authors: Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev
This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We fi…

WP469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We find that key macroeconomic shocks originating in the United States contribute significantly to business cycle synchronization between the US and other economies. These shocks also account for a substantial part of output fluctuations in these economies. Considering individual shock contributions, we document that technology and monetary policy innovations are of the highest relevance.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.6.469 WNE_WP469.pdf
Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev
Macroeconomic shocks International spillovers International business cycles Technology shocks Monetary policy Financial shocks Fiscal policy Investment shocks

WP(5/2025)468. International spillovers of fiscal news shocks

Authors: Turgut Mehmet Burak, Wesołowski Grzegorz
This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the S…

WP468. International spillovers of fiscal news shocks

This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Employing the local projection method, we find  that anticipated increases in U.S. government spending are expansionary domestically, leading to improved sentiment and enhanced financial conditions. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar appreciates, and the U.S. trade balance deteriorates when future fiscal expansion is expected. In the international context, we apply panel local projection models across a broad set of countries and show that positive sentiment and improved financial conditions driven by U.S. fiscal news spill over, stimulating demand and output growth in other economies. However, we find no significant effect of currency depreciation on net exports in a broad sample as rising domestic demand tends to boost imports. In turn, in a subsample of countries with high trade exposure to the U.S., the trade channel becomes significant, while financial channel diminishes in importance. At the same time, sentiment channel appears to play a significant role in all subsamples. Finally, we find that positive fiscal news shocks have strong stimulating effects (both domestic and international) during US recessions but not in expansions.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.5.468 WNE_WP468.pdf
Turgut Mehmet Burak, Wesołowski Grzegorz
government spending news shock international spillovers international business cycles

WP(1/2024)437. Does it matter if the Fed goes conventional or unconventional?

Authors: Kolasa Marcin, Wesołowski Grzegorz
We investigate the domestic and international consequences of three types of Fed monetary policy instruments: conventional interest rate (IR), forward guidance (FG) and large scale asset purchases (LSAP). We document empirically that they can be seen…

WP437. Does it matter if the Fed goes conventional or unconventional?

We investigate the domestic and international consequences of three types of Fed monetary policy instruments: conventional interest rate (IR), forward guidance (FG) and large scale asset purchases (LSAP). We document empirically that they can be seen as close substitutes when used to meet macroeconomic stabilization objectives in the US, but have markedly different spillovers to other countries. This is because each of the three monetary policy instruments transmits differently to asset prices and exchange rates of small open economies. The LSAP by the Fed lowers the term premia both in the US and in other countries, and results in bigger exchange rate adjustments compared to conventional policy. Importantly for international spillovers, LSAP is typically associated with a more accommodative reaction of other countries' monetary authorities, especially in emerging market economies. We demonstrate how these findings can be rationalized within a stylized dynamic theoretical framework featuring a simple form of international bond market segmentation.


Kolasa Marcin, Wesołowski Grzegorz
monetary policy forward guidance quantitative easing international spillovers

WP(19/2023)426. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland

Authors: Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zawojska Ewa, Baldin Andrea, Bille Trine
Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefit…

WP426. Reliability of international benefit transfer in cultural economics: Non-market valuation of theater in Denmark and Poland

Cultural goods provide numerous non-market benefits to society. Estimates of the benefits are needed for benefit-cost analyses, helping to inform cultural policy decisions and aiming at the efficient allocation of public funds. The non-market benefits cannot be assessed through market transactions. While original non-market valuation studies require substantial budgets and time, a benefit transfer approach offers an alternative. It enables the application of empirical estimates from existing original studies conducted at one site to approximate the value at another site. This study provides the first international benefit transfer for performing arts and examines the reliability of various benefit transfer approaches. We use empirical data from two separate stated preference valuation surveys conducted in Denmark and in Poland. Our results suggest that the benefit function transfer accounting for differences in purchasing power parity between the countries can generate transfer errors as low as 3-6%, indicating high reliability of the transferred values.


Wiśniewska Aleksandra, Zawojska Ewa, Baldin Andrea, Bille Trine
international benefit transfer performing arts contingent valuation discrete choice experiment transfer errors

WP(17/2021)365. Trade-related effects of Brexit. Implications for Central and Eastern Europe

Authors: Hagemejer Jan, Dunin-Wąsowicz Maria, Michałek Jan Jakub, Szyszka Jacek
We use a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze several scenarios of Brexit to assess it on the EU New Member States (NMS) to complement the literature exist. Our scenarios are based on expected outcomes of the negotiations, ie.…

WP365. Trade-related effects of Brexit. Implications for Central and Eastern Europe

We use a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze several scenarios of Brexit to assess it on the EU New Member States (NMS) to complement the literature exist. Our scenarios are based on expected outcomes of the negotiations, ie. the Soft Brexit with a limited FTA and a Hard Brexit governed by WTO MFN rules. The shocks imposed on the CGE model include modifications of both tariff and non-tariff barriers. While the former is based on actual tariff data, the latter are estimated using an econometric model for both merchandise trade and services. Our results show the macroeconomic effects of Brexit are mild with a slight decline of NMS GDP of roughly 0.4 % even in the case of a Hard Brexit. However, there are some sectors that may experience somewhat significant drops in output, in particular the food sector and some other manufacturing export-oriented sectors.


Hagemejer Jan, Dunin-Wąsowicz Maria, Michałek Jan Jakub, Szyszka Jacek
CGE modelling international trade Brexit trade policy

WP(9/2021)357. Are Transboundary Nature Protected Areas International Public Goods and Why People Think They Are (Not)? Hybrid Modelling Evidence from the EU Outer Borders

Authors: Valasiuk Sviataslau, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Giergiczny Marek, Żylicz Tomasz, Veisten Knut, Landa Mata Iratxe, Halse Askill Harkjerr, Angelstam Per
Former studies have shown that transboundary nature protected areas are not perceived as pure international public goods by citizens in neighbouring countries that share national parks. In this study, we assess what drives the valuation of nature pro…

WP357. Are Transboundary Nature Protected Areas International Public Goods and Why People Think They Are (Not)? Hybrid Modelling Evidence from the EU Outer Borders

Former studies have shown that transboundary nature protected areas are not perceived as pure international public goods by citizens in neighbouring countries that share national parks. In this study, we assess what drives the valuation of nature protection on the other side of the border in two European transboundary nature areas, the Białowieża Forest and Fulufjället. Applying hybrid choice modelling, we account for people’s attitudes when eliciting their preferences towards transboundary nature protected areas, and examine the impact of attitudes on the degree to which those preferences are consistent with the international public good hypothesis. We found that the intention of visiting the foreign part of the transboundary area, appreciation of transboundary justice and altruism, were the main drivers, whereas suspicious attitude towards the neighbouring country, propensity to free-ride, and manifestations of ‘patriotism’ applied as international public good mitigators to a limited degree only. Value of an extending the protection regime abroad was still positive for Scandinavians, whilst for Polish and Belarusian respondents a policy aiming at extending the protection abroad would lead to loss of human welfare. Facilitating visits of the foreign part by enhancing cross-border access can be expected to shift peoples’ preferences towards transboundary co-operation.


Valasiuk Sviataslau, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Giergiczny Marek, Żylicz Tomasz, Veisten Knut, Landa Mata Iratxe, Halse Askill Harkjerr, Angelstam Per
International public goods national parks forest transboundary nature protected areas public preferences willingness to pay discrete choice experiment hybrid modeling

WP(7/2018)266. Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries: the role of exports and global value chains

Authors: Hagemejer Jan, Mućk Jakub
In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation on economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) countries to show that …

WP266. Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries: the role of exports and global value chains

In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation on economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) countries to show that in over a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEEC countries with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyze the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analyzed period of 1995−2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.


DOI: http://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/266/007
Hagemejer Jan, Mućk Jakub
economic growth international trade GVC heterogeneous panels common correlated effects estimation CEEC

WP(25/2016)216. Does it pay to study abroad? Evidence from Poland

Authors: Liwiński Jacek
Tertiary education has been perceived in Poland as a key determinant of success in the labour market, as clearly shown by the increase of the net enrolment ratio in tertiary education from 9.8% in 1990 up to 40.9% in 2009. However, as tertiary educat…

WP216. Does it pay to study abroad? Evidence from Poland

Tertiary education has been perceived in Poland as a key determinant of success in the labour market, as clearly shown by the increase of the net enrolment ratio in tertiary education from 9.8% in 1990 up to 40.9% in 2009. However, as tertiary education becomes more and more popular, it does not signal skills as well as before. It seems that employers may treat students' participation in international exchange programs as a new signaling tool since according to them international students’ skills – both cognitive and non-cognitive – are well above the average. On the other hand, students participating in exchange programs underline a positive impact of studying abroad on their personal development, i.e. on their general skills. Thus, from a theoretical point of view we may expect a positive correlation between studying abroad and wages, which follows from both signaling theory and human capital theory. On the average, 16% of European students report a positive impact of participation in Erasmus exchange program on their incomes, but interestingly, those from the CEE countries, including Polish students, report it much more often. The aim of this paper is to determine whether studying abroad for at least one semester has an impact on wages of higher education graduates in Poland. To answer this question, an extended Mincer wage equation was estimated using OLS on the basis of data from the nationwide tracer survey of Polish graduates conducted in 2007 (Graduate Tracer Study 2007). The hourly net wage rate in the first job after graduating from a higher education institution was the dependent variable in the wage equation. In order to reduce the selection bias, a number of variables were included in the model to reflect students’ abilities and skills, as well as their previous international experience. The results of the analysis show that Polish students who completed at least one semester of studies abroad, enjoy a wage premium of 28% in their first workplace after graduation. Interestingly, this wage premium is particularly high in case of graduates with low abilities and skills and – consequently – of a low social and economic status. This may indicate that studying abroad contributes to a reduction of social inequality.


Liwiński Jacek
investment in human capital studying abroad international exchange programs wage premium wage equation

WP(28/2015)176. Performance of different approaches in international benefit transfer: Insights from a nine country experiment

Authors: Ahtiainen Heini, Artell Janne, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Meyerhoff Jürgen
This paper investigates the performance of different approaches in international benefit transfer using data from identical and simultaneous contingent valuation surveys on marine water quality in nine European countries. The environmental good is sh…

WP176. Performance of different approaches in international benefit transfer: Insights from a nine country experiment

This paper investigates the performance of different approaches in international benefit transfer using data from identical and simultaneous contingent valuation surveys on marine water quality in nine European countries. The environmental good is shared by the study countries, but the countries differ substantially in their income levels and geography. We test the performance of three approaches: unit value transfer, unit value transfer with income elasticity adjustment, and function transfer. We find that at least in the case of international benefit transfers (when respondents’ mean incomes vary) unit value transfer with income elasticity adjustment performs the best, both in terms of mean absolute transfer errors and minimum tolerance levels for the equivalence of welfare measures. We argue that this approach should become a standard for quick and easy benefit transfer, and can serve as a baseline for comparisons with more complicated function transfers.


Ahtiainen Heini, Artell Janne, Czajkowski Mikołaj, Meyerhoff Jürgen
benefit transfer contingent valuation international transfer errors water quality

WP(20/2011)60. Measuring progress in reading achievement between primary and secondary school across countries

Authors: Jakubowski Maciej, Pokropek Artur
This paper discusses a method to compare progress in reading achievement from primary to secondary school across countries. The method is similar to value-added models that take into account intake levels when comparing student progress in different …

WP60. Measuring progress in reading achievement between primary and secondary school across countries

This paper discusses a method to compare progress in reading achievement from primary to secondary school across countries. The method is similar to value-added models that take into account intake levels when comparing student progress in different schools. Value-added models are preferred over raw scores as they better reflect school efforts. The method dis-cussed in this paper uses measures of achievement in primary schools from PIRLS and compares them to secondary school results from PISA. Changes in achievement are estimated using IRT models and random draws of test items. Results describe an interval in which estimates of progress can lie, depending on the comparability of these two assessments. Estimates of progress are also adjusted for student age, gender and other characteristics that differ between countries and surveys. Separate results by gender, immigrant status, and proficiency level provide a detailed picture of how students in different countries progress in school from the age of 10 to 15.


Jakubowski Maciej, Pokropek Artur
human capital cognitive skills international student achievement tests education PISA PIRLS
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