Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 5

WP(2/2026)496. The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

Authors: Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribut…

WP496. The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribute significantly: fluctuations impact welfare of some cohorts by an equivalent of 30% of annual consumption. These first-order effects do not net out over a typical life cycle: some cohorts have been much less lucky than others. Life cycle aspects also amplify second-order costs of fluctuations. Monetary policy shocks are highly redistributive and, hence play an over-proportional role in driving redistribution: they are responsible for over 20% of its total amount. Systematic monetary policy has a quantitatively significant impact on redistribution as well: policy that responds strongly to inflation and output can substantially increase intergenerational redistribution.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.2.496
Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
Business Cycles Welfare Redistribution Monetary Policy Life-cycle Model

WP(6/2025)469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

Authors: Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev
This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We fi…

WP469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We find that key macroeconomic shocks originating in the United States contribute significantly to business cycle synchronization between the US and other economies. These shocks also account for a substantial part of output fluctuations in these economies. Considering individual shock contributions, we document that technology and monetary policy innovations are of the highest relevance.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.6.469 WNE_WP469.pdf
Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev
Macroeconomic shocks International spillovers International business cycles Technology shocks Monetary policy Financial shocks Fiscal policy Investment shocks

WP(1/2024)437. Does it matter if the Fed goes conventional or unconventional?

Authors: Kolasa Marcin, Wesołowski Grzegorz
We investigate the domestic and international consequences of three types of Fed monetary policy instruments: conventional interest rate (IR), forward guidance (FG) and large scale asset purchases (LSAP). We document empirically that they can be seen…

WP437. Does it matter if the Fed goes conventional or unconventional?

We investigate the domestic and international consequences of three types of Fed monetary policy instruments: conventional interest rate (IR), forward guidance (FG) and large scale asset purchases (LSAP). We document empirically that they can be seen as close substitutes when used to meet macroeconomic stabilization objectives in the US, but have markedly different spillovers to other countries. This is because each of the three monetary policy instruments transmits differently to asset prices and exchange rates of small open economies. The LSAP by the Fed lowers the term premia both in the US and in other countries, and results in bigger exchange rate adjustments compared to conventional policy. Importantly for international spillovers, LSAP is typically associated with a more accommodative reaction of other countries' monetary authorities, especially in emerging market economies. We demonstrate how these findings can be rationalized within a stylized dynamic theoretical framework featuring a simple form of international bond market segmentation.


Kolasa Marcin, Wesołowski Grzegorz
monetary policy forward guidance quantitative easing international spillovers

WP(3/2021)351. Intergenerational redistributive effects of monetary policy

Authors: Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
This paper investigates the distributional consequences of monetary policy across generations. We use a life-cycle model with a rich asset structure as well as nominal and real rigidities calibrated to the euro area using both macroeconomic aggregate…

WP351. Intergenerational redistributive effects of monetary policy

This paper investigates the distributional consequences of monetary policy across generations. We use a life-cycle model with a rich asset structure as well as nominal and real rigidities calibrated to the euro area using both macroeconomic aggregates and microeconomic evidence from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey. We show that the life-cycle profiles of income and asset accumulation decisions are important determinants of redistributive effects of monetary shocks and ignoring them can lead to highly misleading conclusions. The redistribution is mainly driven by nominal assets and labor income, less by real and housing assets. Overall, we find that a typical monetary policy easing redistributes welfare from older to younger generations.


Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
monetary policy life-cycle models wealth redistribution

WP(13/2013)98. Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland

Authors: Goczek Łukasz, Mycielska Dagmara
The aim of the article is to examine the actual degree of Polish monetary policy independence in the context of joining the Eurozone. It is frequently argued that the main cost of the participation in the EMU, or in any other common currency area, is…

WP98. Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland

The aim of the article is to examine the actual degree of Polish monetary policy independence in the context of joining the Eurozone. It is frequently argued that the main cost of the participation in the EMU, or in any other common currency area, is the loss of monetary policy independence. In contrast, the paper raises the question of the actual possibility of such a policy in a small open economy operating within highly liberalized capital flows and highly integrated financial markets like Poland. Confirmation of the hypothesis concerning incomplete actual monetary independence is essential to the analysis of costs of the Polish accession to the EMU. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using a Vector Error-Correction Mechanism model and several parametric hypotheses concerning the speed and asymmetry of adjustment.


Goczek Łukasz, Mycielska Dagmara
empirical analysis Eurozone monetary policy independence monetary union
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