Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 15

WP(7/2025)470. The Impact of Railway on the Regional Economic Development and Social Mobility in the Congress Kingdom of Poland

Authors: Koryś Piotr, Marcin Wroński
We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experien…

WP470. The Impact of Railway on the Regional Economic Development and Social Mobility in the Congress Kingdom of Poland

We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experienced significantly higher population growth. The economic effects of the connection to the railway network increased over time. State-funded military railway lines generated a smaller impact than private-owned lines. We also study the impact of the railway connection on social mobility proxied through a number of notable people born in a given city. However, we do not identify any robust impact.
 


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.7.470
Koryś Piotr, Marcin Wroński
economic history Russian Poland economic growth railways

WP(3/2025)466. The Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Interwar Poland: Detailed Historical National Accounts

Authors: Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
We provide the first estimate of the Polish national, regional and sectoral GDP in the interwar period. We find that the Polish economy's performance in the interwar period was much better than it was assumed before. In the years 1924 – 193…

WP466. The Economic Growth and Regional Convergence in Interwar Poland: Detailed Historical National Accounts

We provide the first estimate of the Polish national, regional and sectoral GDP in the interwar period. We find that the Polish economy's performance in the interwar period was much better than it was assumed before. In the years 1924 – 1938, the real GDP per capita increased by almost 40% or by 2.3% annually. As economic growth was stronger in the poorer regions significant regional convergence was achieved. Our results challenge the dominant narrative about the weak performance of the Polish economy in the interwar years.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.3.466
Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
economic history Poland Great Depression regional convergence economic growth

WP(2/2025)465. Agriculture in interwar Poland: development in a turbulent time

Authors: Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased …

WP465. Agriculture in interwar Poland: development in a turbulent time

We measure the value added in agriculture in Poland during the interwar period. Our calculation is based on the bottom-up methodology. We provide estimates on the national and regional levels. Cultivated area, yields and yields per hectare increased during the investigated period. Significant regional convergence, both in the case of prices and value added occurred. In the years 1924 -38 value added increased by 5.35% annually, resulting 4.01% per capita growth rate. However, the yields per hectare grew less than in a majority of other European economies. While less developed eastern regions caught up with more economically advanced western Poland, the leading west lost compared to European peers. Therefore, our assessment of the development of agriculture in Poland in that period remains mixed.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.2.465
Bukowski Maciej, Kowalski Michał, Marcin Wroński
agriculture national income Poland Central and Eastern Europe economic growth regional convergence

WP(2/2023)409. Prudent populists? The short-term macroeconomic impact of populist policies in Poland

Authors: Brzeziński Michał, Sałach-Dróżdż Katarzyna
Recent research shows that populist governments in general depress countries’ economic growth and fail to improve income distribution. We study the short-term macroeconomic consequences of populist policies implemented in Poland since 2015. Usi…

WP409. Prudent populists? The short-term macroeconomic impact of populist policies in Poland

Recent research shows that populist governments in general depress countries’ economic growth and fail to improve income distribution. We study the short-term macroeconomic consequences of populist policies implemented in Poland since 2015. Using the augmented synthetic control method, we find that the populists boosted the GDP per capita by almost 8% between 2016 and 2019. We do not find any effect of populism on inflation and estimate only small labor market impacts. The populists improved tax revenue collection and reduced public debt. A generous child benefit program and other redistributive policies introduced by the populists significantly reduced overall poverty and almost eradicated absolute child poverty. Our results imply that anti-establishment populists may be macroeconomically prudent, at least in the short run.


Brzeziński Michał, Sałach-Dróżdż Katarzyna
populism economic growth public finance income distribution Poland

WP(30/2022)406. Quantile regression analysis to predict GDP distribution using data from the US and UK

Authors: Tran Thi Huyen, Ślepaczuk Robert
This paper aims to find the best models to forecast one-quarter-ahead and one-year-ahead US and UK real GDP growth distributions by employing quantile regression with skewed-t distribution on different sets of relevant near-term predictors. The resea…

WP406. Quantile regression analysis to predict GDP distribution using data from the US and UK

This paper aims to find the best models to forecast one-quarter-ahead and one-year-ahead US and UK real GDP growth distributions by employing quantile regression with skewed-t distribution on different sets of relevant near-term predictors. The research data period starts in 1947Q1/1955Q1 for US/UK data and ends in 2021Q3/2020Q4 for one-quarter-ahead/one-year-ahead prediction. The out-of-sample period ranges from 1996Q3 to 2021Q3 for one-quarter-ahead prediction and to 2020Q4 for one-year-ahead forecasting. The author applies a two-step testing procedure, in which models with the lowest average error in out-of-sample period are selected to the next step where the cumulative distribution functions of probability integral transforms are computed for the out-of-sample period, to select the best models. The improvement in the final forecasts of the tested models results, among others, from the use of new macroeconomic data with a higher frequency and focusing on the specific properties of the tested models separately for the US and UK. The chosen best models indicate that there exist better models than the model proposed by Adrian et al. (2016) to predict US growth distributions and that near-term predictors can produce good UK growth forecasts. Additionally, some simplified models associated with significantly lower portion of model risk are detected to produce meaningful forecasts for both US and UK case. For the US data, there exist several models that can produce timely predicted results.


Tran Thi Huyen, Ślepaczuk Robert
GDP growth density forecast quantile regression US GDP UK GDP cumulative distribution function probability integral transform out-of-sample forecasting

WP(7/2018)266. Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries: the role of exports and global value chains

Authors: Hagemejer Jan, Mućk Jakub
In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation on economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) countries to show that …

WP266. Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries: the role of exports and global value chains

In this study we assess the importance of exports and global value chains (GVC) participation on economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive dataset, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEEC) countries to show that in over a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEEC countries with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyze the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analyzed period of 1995−2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.


DOI: http://doi.org.10.26405/WP/WNE/2018/266/007
Hagemejer Jan, Mućk Jakub
economic growth international trade GVC heterogeneous panels common correlated effects estimation CEEC

WP(26/2017)255. Innovation and endogenous growth over business cycle with frictional labor markets

Authors: Bielecki Marcin
This paper proposes a microfounded model featuring frictional labor markets that generates procyclical R&D expenditures as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. This allows to show that business cycl…

WP255. Innovation and endogenous growth over business cycle with frictional labor markets

This paper proposes a microfounded model featuring frictional labor markets that generates procyclical R&D expenditures as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. This allows to show that business cycle fluctuations affect the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy. Consequently, transitory shocks leave lasting level effects. This mechanism is responsible for economically significant hysteresis effects that increase the welfare cost of business cycles by two orders of magnitude relative to the exogenous growth model. I show that this has serious policy implications and creates ample space for policy intervention. I find that several static and countercyclical subsidy schemes are welfare improving.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/255/26
Bielecki Marcin
business cycles firm dynamics search and matching innovation endogenous growth

WP(23/2017)252. The output employment elasticity and the increased use of temporary contracts: evidence from Poland

Authors: Bartosik Krzysztof, Mycielski Jerzy
The paper investigates how increased use of temporary contracts has affected employment elasticity with respect to output in Poland. Our empirical analysis covers the period of 1996-2016, with particular focus on the years 2001-2016. Several economet…

WP252. The output employment elasticity and the increased use of temporary contracts: evidence from Poland

The paper investigates how increased use of temporary contracts has affected employment elasticity with respect to output in Poland. Our empirical analysis covers the period of 1996-2016, with particular focus on the years 2001-2016. Several econometric tools are used to explore the relation between growth in GDP and employment. Our study shows that widespread adoption of temporary contracts contributes positively to total employment elasticity. However, what we have observed is that the share of temporary contracts has increased, but the total employment elasticity has decreased. We related this to an inverse relationship between the growth of permanent and temporary employment and the opposite trends in output elasticities of temporary and permanent employment.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/252/023
Bartosik Krzysztof, Mycielski Jerzy
labour demand temporary contracts economic growth labour market institutions

WP(22/2017)251. Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective

Authors: Bielecki Marcin
The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labor markets and financial frictions that generates procyclical …

WP251. Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective

The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labor markets and financial frictions that generates procyclical R&D expenditures and replicates business cycle features of establishment dynamics. This allows demonstrating the channels through which productivity and financial shocks influence the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy, creating level shifts in its balanced growth path. I find that financial shocks are an important driver of the aggregate fluctuations and their influence is especially pronounced for establishment entry. Since the growth rate of the economy can in principle be affected by policy measures, I examine the macroeconomic and welfare effects of applying several subsidy schemes.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/251/022
Bielecki Marcin
business cycles establishment dynamics endogenous growth working capital financial shocks

WP(19/2017)248. Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis

Authors: Bielecki Marcin
Endogenous growth literature treats deliberate R&D effort as the main engine of long-run growth. It has been already recognized that R&D expenditures are procyclical. This paper builds a microfounded model that generates procyclical aggregate…

WP248. Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis

Endogenous growth literature treats deliberate R&D effort as the main engine of long-run growth. It has been already recognized that R&D expenditures are procyclical. This paper builds a microfounded model that generates procyclical aggregate R&D investment as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. I find that business cycle fluctuations affect the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy so that transitory shocks leave lasting level effects on the economy's Balanced Growth Path. This result stems from both procyclical R&D expenditures of the incumbents and procyclical firm entry rates. This mechanism generates economically significant hysteresis effects, increasing the welfare cost of business cycles by two orders of magnitude relative to the exogenous growth model. Coupled with potential to affect endogenous growth rates, ample space for welfare improving policy interventions arises. The paper evaluates the effects of selected subsidy schemes and finds some of them welfare improving.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/248/019
Bielecki Marcin
business cycles firm dynamics innovation growth welfare analysis
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