Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 8

WP(2/2026)496. The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

Authors: Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribut…

WP496. The redistributive power of business cycle fluctuations

How do business cycles redistribute between generations, what are the redistribution channels and what role is played by monetary policy? We construct a New-Keynesian life-cycle model and estimate it for the United States. Business cycles redistribute significantly: fluctuations impact welfare of some cohorts by an equivalent of 30% of annual consumption. These first-order effects do not net out over a typical life cycle: some cohorts have been much less lucky than others. Life cycle aspects also amplify second-order costs of fluctuations. Monetary policy shocks are highly redistributive and, hence play an over-proportional role in driving redistribution: they are responsible for over 20% of its total amount. Systematic monetary policy has a quantitatively significant impact on redistribution as well: policy that responds strongly to inflation and output can substantially increase intergenerational redistribution.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.2.496
Bielecki Marcin, Brzoza-Brzezina Michał, Kolasa Marcin
Business Cycles Welfare Redistribution Monetary Policy Life-cycle Model

WP(6/2025)469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

Authors: Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev
This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We fi…

WP469. US macroeconomic shocks and international business cycle

This paper estimates the role of six shocks originating in the United States in driving the international business cycle. To this end, it employs impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition from panel local projections. We find that key macroeconomic shocks originating in the United States contribute significantly to business cycle synchronization between the US and other economies. These shocks also account for a substantial part of output fluctuations in these economies. Considering individual shock contributions, we document that technology and monetary policy innovations are of the highest relevance.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.6.469 WNE_WP469.pdf
Wesołowski Grzegorz, Oleg Gurshev
Macroeconomic shocks International spillovers International business cycles Technology shocks Monetary policy Financial shocks Fiscal policy Investment shocks

WP(5/2025)468. International spillovers of fiscal news shocks

Authors: Turgut Mehmet Burak, Wesołowski Grzegorz
This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the S…

WP468. International spillovers of fiscal news shocks

This paper investigates the domestic and international transmission of U.S. fiscal news shocks emphasizing the importance of the sentiment channel for the global economy. We identify these shocks using federal government spending forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Employing the local projection method, we find  that anticipated increases in U.S. government spending are expansionary domestically, leading to improved sentiment and enhanced financial conditions. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar appreciates, and the U.S. trade balance deteriorates when future fiscal expansion is expected. In the international context, we apply panel local projection models across a broad set of countries and show that positive sentiment and improved financial conditions driven by U.S. fiscal news spill over, stimulating demand and output growth in other economies. However, we find no significant effect of currency depreciation on net exports in a broad sample as rising domestic demand tends to boost imports. In turn, in a subsample of countries with high trade exposure to the U.S., the trade channel becomes significant, while financial channel diminishes in importance. At the same time, sentiment channel appears to play a significant role in all subsamples. Finally, we find that positive fiscal news shocks have strong stimulating effects (both domestic and international) during US recessions but not in expansions.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.5.468 WNE_WP468.pdf
Turgut Mehmet Burak, Wesołowski Grzegorz
government spending news shock international spillovers international business cycles

WP(19/2019)304. Evolution of private returns to schooling over the business cycle in a transition economy

Authors: Wincenciak Leszek
The purpose of this study is twofold. First, it aims to provide the estimates of returns to schooling using consistent methodology and comparable set of data for a relatively long time horizon for a country undergoing economic transition and accessio…

WP304. Evolution of private returns to schooling over the business cycle in a transition economy

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, it aims to provide the estimates of returns to schooling using consistent methodology and comparable set of data for a relatively long time horizon for a country undergoing economic transition and accession process into European Union, 1995-2017. Secondly, using the Mincer (1974) methodology of wage regressions it aims to verify if returns to schooling are pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical. Returns to schooling are linked to the evolution of unemployment rate on a regional level. Estimated earnings functions suggest that returns to schooling were increasing in Poland until 2006 and declining afterwards unveiling the supply side effects domination. The estimates show that an increase in unemployment rate by 1 percent leads to an increase of return to additional year of schooling roughly by 0.008 percentage points.


Wincenciak Leszek
returns to schooling education earnings equation wage curve business cycle transition

WP(26/2017)255. Innovation and endogenous growth over business cycle with frictional labor markets

Authors: Bielecki Marcin
This paper proposes a microfounded model featuring frictional labor markets that generates procyclical R&D expenditures as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. This allows to show that business cycl…

WP255. Innovation and endogenous growth over business cycle with frictional labor markets

This paper proposes a microfounded model featuring frictional labor markets that generates procyclical R&D expenditures as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. This allows to show that business cycle fluctuations affect the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy. Consequently, transitory shocks leave lasting level effects. This mechanism is responsible for economically significant hysteresis effects that increase the welfare cost of business cycles by two orders of magnitude relative to the exogenous growth model. I show that this has serious policy implications and creates ample space for policy intervention. I find that several static and countercyclical subsidy schemes are welfare improving.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/255/26
Bielecki Marcin
business cycles firm dynamics search and matching innovation endogenous growth

WP(22/2017)251. Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective

Authors: Bielecki Marcin
The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labor markets and financial frictions that generates procyclical …

WP251. Long shadows of financial shocks: an endogenous growth perspective

The Great Recession has resulted in a seemingly permanent level shift in many macroeconomic variables. This paper presents a microfounded general equilibrium model featuring frictional labor markets and financial frictions that generates procyclical R&D expenditures and replicates business cycle features of establishment dynamics. This allows demonstrating the channels through which productivity and financial shocks influence the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy, creating level shifts in its balanced growth path. I find that financial shocks are an important driver of the aggregate fluctuations and their influence is especially pronounced for establishment entry. Since the growth rate of the economy can in principle be affected by policy measures, I examine the macroeconomic and welfare effects of applying several subsidy schemes.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/251/022
Bielecki Marcin
business cycles establishment dynamics endogenous growth working capital financial shocks

WP(19/2017)248. Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis

Authors: Bielecki Marcin
Endogenous growth literature treats deliberate R&D effort as the main engine of long-run growth. It has been already recognized that R&D expenditures are procyclical. This paper builds a microfounded model that generates procyclical aggregate…

WP248. Business cycles, innovation and growth: welfare analysis

Endogenous growth literature treats deliberate R&D effort as the main engine of long-run growth. It has been already recognized that R&D expenditures are procyclical. This paper builds a microfounded model that generates procyclical aggregate R&D investment as a result of optimizing behavior by heterogeneous monopolistically competitive firms. I find that business cycle fluctuations affect the aggregate endogenous growth rate of the economy so that transitory shocks leave lasting level effects on the economy's Balanced Growth Path. This result stems from both procyclical R&D expenditures of the incumbents and procyclical firm entry rates. This mechanism generates economically significant hysteresis effects, increasing the welfare cost of business cycles by two orders of magnitude relative to the exogenous growth model. Coupled with potential to affect endogenous growth rates, ample space for welfare improving policy interventions arises. The paper evaluates the effects of selected subsidy schemes and finds some of them welfare improving.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.26405/WP/WNE/2017/248/019
Bielecki Marcin
business cycles firm dynamics innovation growth welfare analysis

WP(1/2011)41. The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland

Authors: Woźniak Rafał
In the paper, two indicators, the coincident and the leading indicator, are proposed to represent the aggregated economic activity in Poland. The indicators are constructed with stochastic cycle and trend model. Not only does the presented approach s…

WP41. The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland

In the paper, two indicators, the coincident and the leading indicator, are proposed to represent the aggregated economic activity in Poland. The indicators are constructed with stochastic cycle and trend model. Not only does the presented approach solve the problem of existence of stochastic trends in the observed series, but it also allows to account for a different data span of each series in dataset.


Woźniak Rafał
business cycles leading indicators coincident indicators dynamic factor model stochastic cycle stochastic trend
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