Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

Please send your paper by e-mail: SFg^/H5V\p8?rwciBLo#@3Oz|GJ]#[K2ZJs3wG=ax.f4[X~Ue}Is0p#43 

Please send 2 files:

(1) the main text without the title of the article and the authors (DOC/DOCX file) and

(2) the title page including: the title of the paper, the authors and their affiliation (DOC/DOCX file).

Please read the detailed editing requirements before submitting your text. 

Number of Results 4

WP(22/2021)370. Predicting football outcomes from Spanish league using machine learning models

Authors: Lewandowski Michał, Chlebus Marcin
High-quality football predictive models can be very useful and profitable. Therefore, in this research, we undertook to construct machine learning models to predict football outcomes in games from Spanish LaLiga and then we compared them with histori…

WP370. Predicting football outcomes from Spanish league using machine learning models

High-quality football predictive models can be very useful and profitable. Therefore, in this research, we undertook to construct machine learning models to predict football outcomes in games from Spanish LaLiga and then we compared them with historical forecasts extracted from bookmakers, which knowledge is commonly considered to be deep and high-quality. The aim of the paper was to design models with the highest possible predictive performances, get results close to bookmakers or even building better estimators. The work included detailed feature engineering based on previous achievements of this domain and own proposals. A built and selected set of variables was used with four machine learning methods, namely Random Forest, AdaBoost, XGBoost and CatBoost. The algorithms were compared based on: Area Under the Curve (AUC) and Ranked Probability Score (RPS). RPS was used as a benchmark in the comparison of estimated probabilities from trained models and forecasts from bookmakers' odds. For a deeper understanding and explanation of the demonstrated methods, which are considered as black-box approaches, Permutation Feature Importance (PFI) was used to evaluate the impacts of individual variables. Features extracted from bookmakers odds’ occurred the most important in terms of PFI. Furthermore, XGBoost achieved the best results on the validation set (RPS equals 0.1989), which obtained similar predictive power to bookmakers' odds (their RPS between 0.1977 and 0.1984). Results of the trained estimators were promising and this article showed that competition with bookmakers is possible using demonstrated techniques.


Lewandowski Michał, Chlebus Marcin
predicting football outcomes machine learning betting adaboost random forest xgboost catboost ranked probability score auc permutation feature importance

WP(4/2016)195. Time Pressure and Risk Taking in Auctions: A Field Experiment

Authors: El Haji Anouar, Krawczyk Michał, Sylwestrzak Marek, Zawojska Ewa
Auctions often require risk taking under time pressure. However, little is known about how time pressure moderates the relationship between uncertainty of outcomes and bidding behavior. This study consists of a field experiment in which participants …

WP195. Time Pressure and Risk Taking in Auctions: A Field Experiment

Auctions often require risk taking under time pressure. However, little is known about how time pressure moderates the relationship between uncertainty of outcomes and bidding behavior. This study consists of a field experiment in which participants are invited to a Vickrey auction to elicit their willingness to pay for a lottery ticket. The time available to place a bid and also the skewness of the lottery (holding the expected value constant) are systematically manipulated. We find that under high time pressure participants are less likely to place a bid at all. Furthermore, participants who do place a bid under high time pressure bid significantly less than participants under low time pressure. The main finding is thus that increased time pressure significantly decreases risk taking. The effect seems to be particularly strong for the lottery with a high probability of winning and for female subjects.


El Haji Anouar, Krawczyk Michał, Sylwestrzak Marek, Zawojska Ewa
Internet auctions Vickrey auction risk taking time pressure

WP(34/2015)182. Selling timber in Poland

Authors: Giergiczny Marek, Nehrebecka Natalia, Żylicz Tomasz
The paper looks at how the foresters try to reconcile sustainable management practices with economic viability of their operations within the legal framework they operate in. In particular, we compare prices received by the State Forest Enterprise in…

WP182. Selling timber in Poland

The paper looks at how the foresters try to reconcile sustainable management practices with economic viability of their operations within the legal framework they operate in. In particular, we compare prices received by the State Forest Enterprise in Poland in two types of timber auctions: constrained and unconstrained ones. While the latter allow for higher revenues, the former are maintained for political reasons. The authors verify alternative hypotheses regarding market behaviour of timber buyers. The data from timber auctions in 2011-2012 demonstrate that winning prices are determined by starting prices and by the market power of the State Forest Enterprise (diversified with respect to specific timber varieties), as well as by price expectations. Based on the modelling results the paper makes policy recommendations with respect to the design of timber auctions and – more broadly – with respect to striking a balance between timber and non-timber benefits from the forestry in Poland.


Giergiczny Marek, Nehrebecka Natalia, Żylicz Tomasz
Timber markets Public forests Multi-unit auction Sustainable management

WP(19/2014)136. Buying spatially-coordinated ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation on forest land: an experiment on the role of auction format and communication.

Authors: Bartczak Anna, Krawczyk Michał, Hanley Nick, Stenger Anne
Procurement auctions are one of several policy tools available to incentivise the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Successful biodiversity conservation often requires a landscape-scale approach and the spatial coordinati…

WP136. Buying spatially-coordinated ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation on forest land: an experiment on the role of auction format and communication.

Procurement auctions are one of several policy tools available to incentivise the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Successful biodiversity conservation often requires a landscape-scale approach and the spatial coordination of participation, for example in the creation of wildlife corridors. In this paper, we use a laboratory experiment to explore two features of procurement auctions in a forest landscape?the pricing mechanism (uniform vs. discriminatory) and availability of communication (chat) between potential sellers. We modify the experimental design developed by Reeson et al. (2011) by introducing uncertainty (and hence heterogeneity) in the production value of forest sites as well as an automated, endogenous stopping rule. We find that discriminatory pricing yields to greater environmental benefits per government dollar spent, chiefly due to better coordination between owners of adjacent plots. Chat also facilitates such coordination but also seems to encourage collusion in sustaining high prices for the most environmentally attractive plots. These two effects offset each other, making chat neutral from the viewpoint of maximizing environmental effect per dollar spent.


Bartczak Anna, Krawczyk Michał, Hanley Nick, Stenger Anne
conservation auctions spatial coordination chat in experiments discriminatory and uniform auctions biodiversity conservation provision of ecosystem services
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