Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

Please send your paper by e-mail: o!GJ]EDT@2V+m*SYgFN/eciha{f]#[go62G0'Ex}8yaEKHMOD%nIN^jlS 

Please send 2 files:

(1) the main text without the title of the article and the authors (DOC/DOCX file) and

(2) the title page including: the title of the paper, the authors and their affiliation (DOC/DOCX file).

Please read the detailed editing requirements before submitting your text. 

Number of Results 3

WP(32/2026)526. Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Kurowska Anna, Grabowska Magdalena, Świtała Maciej, Osiewalska Beata
While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), …

WP526. Same Constraints in Changing Times? A Machine-Learning Approach to Childbearing and Fertility Intentions in Poland during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

While studies highlight COVID-19's disruptive impact on fertility, whether pandemic-era childbearing predictors remain informative post-crisis is less clear. Using Polish Familydemic panel data from 2021–2024 (N = 1,925, aged 18–49), we apply theory-guided machine learning to evaluate a broad set of individual, employment, partnership, and family characteristics. Because short-term fertility intentions prove most predictive of childbearing, we model both actual births and firm positive intentions using random forest. The pandemic-trained model retained strong post-pandemic predictive performance (AUC-ROC = 0.86), demonstrating that pandemic-era drivers remain informative. Childbearing and intentions shared 16 of their top 20 predictors, highlighting common relational, demographic, and work–family factors. Relationship satisfaction, work–life balance, and domestic work division were particularly prominent, whereas prolonged school and childcare closures lowered predicted probabilities for both outcomes among parents. Ultimately, post-pandemic fertility dynamics reflect persistent constraints embedded in everyday family and working lives.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.32.526
Kurowska Anna, Grabowska Magdalena, Świtała Maciej, Osiewalska Beata
childbearing fertility intentions COVID-19 pandemic machine learning relationship satisfaction childcare closures

WP(15/2025)478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting

Authors: Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena
Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent att…

WP478. Beyond Usual Suspects: Revisiting Barriers to Childbearing Decisions in a Low Fertility Setting

Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. While economic insecurity, housing affordability, and gender inequality have been central to earlier research, recent attention has shifted to climate change and reproductive rights. This study examines the relative importance of contextual constraints on childbearing intentions among young adults in Poland. Using a factorial survey (N = 1,337), we compare how employment stability, housing affordability, childcare availability, men’s domestic contributions, climate change, and abortion rights shape intentions     to have a first or second child. Results confirm the enduring salience of economic security for fertility intentions across gender and parenthood status. Reproductive autonomy is most influential for childless women and important for mothers and partnered men. Childcare and equitable domestic arrangements support women’s intentions but matter less for men. Climate concerns are less influential. Intentions of childless men appear less responsive overall.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2025.15.478
Anna Kurowska, Matysiak Anna, Grabowska Magdalena
fertility intentions factorial survey experiment economic insecurity reproductive autonomy gender equality childcare availability climate change

WP(22/2022)398. Working from home during Covid-19 pandemic and changes to fertility intentions among parents

Authors: Kurowska Anna, Matysiak Anna, Osiewalska Beata
The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs. On the o…

WP398. Working from home during Covid-19 pandemic and changes to fertility intentions among parents

The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs. On the other, it led to blurred boundaries between work and family life during lockdowns. We investigate how working from home was related to change in fertility intentions of mothers and fathers during the pandemic and discuss the complex mechanisms behind these relationships. With the use of unique Familydemic Survey data for Poland, we estimate multinomial logit regressions and consider a set of potential moderators. We find evidence for an overall negative relationship between home based work and fertility intentions for mothers and fathers, but we also uncover some positive moderating effects. In particular, we shed light on the unexpected moderating role of gendered division of unpaid labor from before the pandemic. 


Kurowska Anna, Matysiak Anna, Osiewalska Beata
fertility intentions childbearing decisions Covid-19 pandemic coronavirus pandemic working from home telecommuting telework home based work work-family reconciliation work-family conflict parents gender relations division of unpaid work
  • 1