Working Papers

The WNE Working Papers series has been published by the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw since 2008.

The WNE Working Papers series provides a fast, open channel for disseminating research conducted at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. The papers hosted here are working versions (pre-prints) and may evolve as authors refine their analyses, incorporate feedback, or progress through formal peer-review. What you read is the current version released by the authors, timestamped and assigned DOI/ISSN identifiers to ensure precise citation and version tracking. Copyright remains with the authors, who may, at any time, upload a revised file or add a note directing readers to a later, peer-reviewed publication.

The Working Papers series accepts articles by research employees of the Faculty and publications from conferences organised at the Faculty of Economic Sciences at the University of Warsaw. Articles should be original research papers which have not been previously published, on the subject of economics.

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Number of Results 5

WP(23/2026)517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Authors: Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated…

WP517. Using tweet phrases to predict the transition from migration intentions to real-life movements

Understanding the transition from migration intentions to actual movements remains a challenge in demographic research, often hampered by a persistent intention-behavior gap. This research examines how linguistic variations in individuals' stated migration intentions, particularly on social media, help predict actual movements. We hypothesize that the specific phrasing of the intention reflects the strength and proximity to realization. To verify this claim, we compiled a unique dataset based on migration-related tweets from Polish users posted between 2006 and 2021, identifying potential migrants via Polish keywords that indicated some form of migration intent. The collected statements were manually categorized for linguistic nuances and contextual factors. Actual migration was subsequently tracked by detecting significant country changes (minimum 30 or 180 days) in users' geotagged tweet histories, and logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictive power of different formulations. Our findings demonstrate that the linguistic phrasing of migration intentions correlates significantly with their realization: users employing “planning” keywords were most likely to migrate, while those expressing mere “preferences” were the least likely. Additionally, intentions communicated through multiple tweets, as well as those linked to concrete goals, such as education, positively predicted actual movement. Conversely, tweets with negative contexts, hypothetical conditions, or perceived obstacles were related to a reduced actual migration probability. This study empirically confirms that subtle linguistic variations and contextual elements within spontaneous social media expressions may be treated as indicators of migration intention strength and its likelihood of translating into actual behavior. Our results highlight the importance of differentiating intention forms to enhance migration predictions and refine future survey designs.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.33138/2957-0506.2026.23.517
Janicka Anna, Amirkhanyan Hayk
migration intentions migration behavior migration decision-making intention-behavior gap social media analysis Twitter data geolocated data linguistic cues migration prediction human mobility Poland

WP(18/2023)425. Patterns in the mobility and ownership of private cars and alternative transport modes: the focus on Warsaw and Poland

Authors: Akhavan Shahriar, Grzenda Maciej, Nicińska Anna, Rachubik Joanna, Rożynek Satia, Zawieska Jakub, Kula Grzegorz
This article presents an extensive analysis of the private ownership of cars and other transport modes in Warsaw, Poland, with a focus on understanding mobility patterns and exploring sustainable alternatives to private car usage. It provides a compr…

WP425. Patterns in the mobility and ownership of private cars and alternative transport modes: the focus on Warsaw and Poland

This article presents an extensive analysis of the private ownership of cars and other transport modes in Warsaw, Poland, with a focus on understanding mobility patterns and exploring sustainable alternatives to private car usage. It provides a comprehensive description of car ownership trends, highlighting the high and growing number of cars per capita in Poland, particularly in Warsaw. The existing transport system in Warsaw, including the public transport network and related policies, is summarized. A literature review examines institutional, socio-economic, and individual factors influencing mobility behaviors and the dynamics of recent changes in car usage and alternative modes of transport. The analysis identifies barriers and opportunities for the adoption of sustainable mobility solutions, while discussing policy implications at the national and international levels.


Akhavan Shahriar, Grzenda Maciej, Nicińska Anna, Rachubik Joanna, Rożynek Satia, Zawieska Jakub, Kula Grzegorz
mobility systems car ownership public transportation consumer preferences sustainable mobility urban communities

WP(23/2020)329. Are Poles stuck in overeducation? Individual dynamics of educational mismatch in Poland

Authors: Baran Jan Aleksander
The paper investigates persistency of overeducation from individual perspective. Following aspects of mobility are analysed: probability of staying in employment, upward occupational mobility and wage dynamics. Data for Poland are used. The results s…

WP329. Are Poles stuck in overeducation? Individual dynamics of educational mismatch in Poland

The paper investigates persistency of overeducation from individual perspective. Following aspects of mobility are analysed: probability of staying in employment, upward occupational mobility and wage dynamics. Data for Poland are used. The results show that overeducated individuals are more likely to stay in employment compared to their properly matched colleagues. The overeducated workers as well as undereducated ones tend to move toward jobs for which they are more properly matched. However, the rate of this adjustment is low and one can fairly claim that in Poland overeducation is a persistent phenomenon from individual perspective. In line with other studies, the overeducated workers are found to experience faster wage growth compared to properly matched individuals. However, it can be largely attributed to overeducated workers improving their match status over time. It means that initially overeducated workers can expect faster wage growth than properly matched workers especially when they move to jobs requiring more schooling.


Baran Jan Aleksander
overeducation educational mismatch occupational mobility earnings mobility

WP(17/2012)83. Life Cycle Income and Consumption Patterns in Transition

Authors: Kolasa Aleksandra
There is vast literature examining how households' income and consumption change over the life cycle. These studies, however, are usually restricted to developed economies. The main objective of this paper is to add to this literature by investig…

WP83. Life Cycle Income and Consumption Patterns in Transition

There is vast literature examining how households' income and consumption change over the life cycle. These studies, however, are usually restricted to developed economies. The main objective of this paper is to add to this literature by investigating the life cycle profiles and relative income mobility in a transition economy, facing rapid structural economic and social changes, such as Poland. I show that, in contrast to the US, where income inequality over the life cycle follows a roughly linear trend, the age-variance profile of income in Poland is hump-shaped. This finding might indicate that the income process at a micro level in Poland exhibits less persistence than in the US. The estimates of relative income mobility confirm this conjecture.


Kolasa Aleksandra
consumption income life cycle profiles income inequality relative income mobility transition economy

WP(9/2011)49. Does a change of occupation lead to higher earnings?

Authors: Pęczkowski Marek, Liberda Zofia Barbara
The aim of this paper is to identify how the mobility between different types of broadly defined occupation (hired work, self-employment in industry, services and agriculture or social security beneficiaries) changes personal income of individuals. W…

WP49. Does a change of occupation lead to higher earnings?

The aim of this paper is to identify how the mobility between different types of broadly defined occupation (hired work, self-employment in industry, services and agriculture or social security beneficiaries) changes personal income of individuals. We apply the Markov matrices to the panel data on 30540 individuals for 2007-2008 from the Polish Household Budget Surveys. Our hypothesis is that a change of occupation affects individual capability to earn income, controlling for the occupation a person quits and the occupation a person starts, as well as age, education level and a permanent or temporary character of work. We test our hypothesis using the regression analysis. Our results show that the inter-occupational mobility matters mostly for those quitting hired work for self-employment, for the better educated, as well as for respondents above 60 years of age.


Pęczkowski Marek, Liberda Zofia Barbara
income earning mobility occupation hired work self-employment
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