Lecture by Eliza Hałatek, PhD Candidate Affiliated with the Department of Political Economy

Eliza Hałatek, a PhD candidate affiliated with the Department of Political Economy at the Faculty of Economic Sciences, will present a study titled „The Relevance of Central Bank Communication - Does It Really Build Trust?”. The study is co-authored by Prof. Jacek Lewkowicz. We cordially encourage you to review the abstract of the presentation, provided below.

The lecture will take place on 15 January at 17:00 in room B104, as part of the Warsaw Economic Seminars series.

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Do the tone and content of European Central Bank speeches shape public trust? This study addresses this question using a novel combination of text-mining techniques and econometric analysis. Drawing on Eurobarometer survey data from 27 European Union member states between 2017 and 2024, the research applies topic modelling and sentiment analysis to a corpus of speeches delivered by European Central Bank representatives. The textual indicators are combined with macroeconomic and institutional variables in panel regression and machine learning models. Our results reveal that the effect is quite nuanced and varies depending on the institutional role of the speaker, as well as the subject. These findings highlight that effective central bank communication goes beyond transparency and frequency. In an environment of heightened uncertainty and growing public scrutiny, trust depends on the perceived credibility, emotional resonance, and topical relevance of the message, especially when addressing a heterogeneous audience of both experts and non-experts.