Certyfikat jakości 
kształcenia dla WNE

EBCL
WNE Centrum
Egzaminacyjnym EBC*L 

WP(38)229. Partial decentralization and its influence on local governments’ spending policy. An analysis of spending for teachers and other resources needed for schools.

Abstrakt

The aim of the paper is to analyze how limits in revenue and spending autonomy of sub-sovereign governments influence these governments' decisions. The analysis is focused on Polish towns current spending for schools in years 2002-2013. It presents that revenue autonomy increases towns spending, however the results are different for various categories of expenditure. The expenses were disaggregated for spending for teachers and other schools' recourses. The first category is the most important in schools' budget and in Poland is strongly (but not completely) determined by central regulations. The second category is more decentralized. It is presented that less decentralized spendings are unified among towns and are higher in more revenue' autonomous towns, the spending autonomy doesn't influence them. In case of more decentralized tasks, differences among municipalities are important, expenditure is influenced by spending autonomy, not by revenue autonomy. These results show that less autonomous tasks crowd out others.
Agnieszka Kopańska

WP(37)228. Are school-provided skills useful at work? Results of the Wiles test

Abstrakt

Although it has been over 40 years since labour economists started testing human capital vs. signalling explanation of the wage premium from education, the debate is still going on and authors keep on proposing new methods of testing. The human capital theory postulates that investment in education enhances the productive capacity of individuals, while according to the signalling hypothesis the value of a graduation diploma follows from the fact that it signals innate abilities of its holder. We apply the approach proposed by Wiles to test for the signalling hypothesis and, in particular, to find out if there is a positive relation between education and productivity. For this purpose, we construct a job match index based on information if school provided knowledge and skills are useful at work and the job performed is relevant to the field of study. Then we check if the quality of job matching is related to wages of graduates in Poland. To answer this question, a wage equation was estimated using OLS on the basis of data from a representative, nationwide tracer survey of Poles who left secondary schools or graduated from higher education institutions over the period of 1998-2005. We find out that knowledge and skills acquired in the course of formal education bring wage benefits only to university graduates. Besides, this group receives a wage premium, which may be attributed to their high innate abilities. In sum, the outcomes are consistent with the weak signalling hypothesis, since they show that tertiary education signals a high level of innate abilities and at the same time it provides knowledge and skills which enhance individual productivity at work. However, the role of tertiary education differs significantly by fields of study – graduating from programs that provide soft skills has a positive impact on productivity, while hard-applied skills acquired in the course of university studies have a strong signalling nature. Besides, we find evidence of the strong signalling hypothesis with regard to the secondary vocational schools leavers.
Jacek Liwiński

WP(36)227. Gain and loss of money in a choice experiment. The impact of financial loss aversion and risk preferences on willingness to pay to avoid renewable energy extarnalities.

Abstrakt

We examine how the direction of price changes affects the value people place on avoiding renewable energy externalities in Poland. Additionally, we investigate the influence of individuals' financial loss aversion and financial risk preferences on this valuation. In our study we conduct a choice experiment survey in which respondents' choices indicate the value they place on avoiding wind, solar, and biomass externalities. We combine this survey with a financial lottery choice task that elicits the respondents' risk preferences and degree of loss aversion. In the choice experiment we use both increases and decreases in electricity bills to depict the uncertain effect of new sources of energy generation on the current price level. This design allows us to investigate if obtained values are independent of the payment mechanism. In the analyzed context, our results indicate that marginal utility of money seems to be lower with a rebate on the energy bill than with a surcharge. Moreover, financial risk preferences affect people's choices in a case of a surcharge, while loss aversion for money affects them in the case of a rebate. We find that the more loss averse people are with regard to money, the more they require compensation before they accept externalities from renewable electricity production. In contrast, the more risk seeking people are in a financial domain, the less cost sensitive they are and the more willing they are to pay for proposed changes in renewable electricity generation.
Anna Bartczak Mikołaj Czajkowski Susan Chilton, Jürgen Meyerhoff

WP(35)226. Can fiscal decentralisation curb fiscal imbalances?

Abstrakt

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of fiscal decentralisation on fiscal discipline. We use annual data for more than 2400 Polish municipalities, over the years 2002-2014. We introduce the distinction between "de facto" and "de jure" fiscal decentralisation, what is the first novelty of this study. The second novelty is that we control for the characteristics of the political scene and include interactions of decentralisation and political variables. We show that higher decentralisation is associated with higher fiscal discipline and that this result is robust for all our decentralisation measures. We also show that the impact of decentralisation is different, depending on the characteristics of the local political scene. Therefore, its overall effect on fiscal balance is not necessarily straightforward.
Grażyna Bukowska Joanna Siwińska-Gorzelak

WP(34)225. On a way to overcome strategic overbidding in open-ended stated preference surveys: A recoding approach

Abstrakt

Stated preference (SP) surveys often use open-ended questions to elicit individuals' willingness-to-pay values for goods, services, or policy projects. However, an open-ended format may encourage strategic overbidding, and so lead to biased value estimates. We propose a new approach, based on economic theory, to limit strategic overbidding in open-ended SP surveys: prior to the valuation question, respondents are told that their insincere responses will be (unfavourably) recoded as zeros. We develop a theoretical model and verify its predictions in a field SP study. We find that the approach works: respondents aware of subsequent unfavourable recoding of their insincere answers state significantly lower willingness-to-pay values.
Ewa Zawojska Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu, Romain Crastes, Jordan Louviere

WP(33)224. Rewarding truthful-telling in stated preference studies

Abstrakt

Stated preference surveys rarely provide conditions where a respondent's optimal strategy is to answer truthfully. As a result, the reliability of stated preference data is often questioned. We consider a new approach economic theory-based approach to incentivize respondents to answer truthfully. Our approach is based on a lie detector coupled with a reward. We discuss theoretical predictions of the approach and test them empirically in a split sample choice experiment dealing with a tree planting program. We find lie detection (i) increases time spent to complete the valuation tasks and (ii) decreases the variance of the error term by using a hybrid choice model that accounts for possible endogeneity. Our results are encouraging but more research is needed to assess the validity of this new approach.
Ewa Zawojska Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu, Romain Crastes, Jordan Louviere

WP(32)223. A Turbine is not only a Turbine: The Role of Social Context and Fairness Characteristics for the Local Acceptance of Wind Power

Abstrakt

To gain acceptance for renewable energy production sites it is not sufficient just to develop the appropriate technology without taking the social context and fairness concerns into account. Using a factorial survey experiment we investigate the influence of both on the local acceptance of wind turbine developments in Germany and Poland, two countries differing in installed wind power capacity. Respondents were confronted with hypothetical situations describing the construction of wind farms varying, among others, in the opportunity to participate in the planning process (participatory justice), the distribution of turbines across regions (distributive justice) and ownership. We find higher acceptance levels in Poland than in Germany. Respondents in both countries are willing to accept new turbines in their vicinity if they can participate in decision making, the turbines are owned by a group of citizens and if the generated electricity is consumed in the region instead of being exported. Overall, participatory justice is more important than distributive justice. Confirming previous results, we also find that respondents who have already turbines in their vicinity show higher acceptance levels than those who are not yet affected. Thus, the negative externalities are likely to be overestimated in the planning and implementation process.
Anna Bartczak Ulf Liebe, Jürgen Meyerhoff

WP(31)222. Economic valuation of ecosystem services provided by the Wilanów Park: A benefit transfer study

Abstrakt

The Wilanów royal residence – the palace, buildings, monuments and gardens located in the park – is a unique combination of magnificent architecture, historic tradition and nature. They provide multiple benefits to both tourists and inhabitants of Warsaw. In this study we aim at estimating the economic value of nature-related benefits of the Wilanów residence, namely the value of ecosystem services provided by the Park. We use a benefit transfer method and find the value of ecosystem services of the Wilanów Park at 500 thousand euro per year. This seems a significant amount, nevertheless it is much lower than the value of “services” provided by the non-biological assets of the residence.
Ewa Zawojska Mikołaj Czajkowski Zbigniew Szkop Tomasz Żylicz

WP(30)221. Linking perceived choice complexity with scale heterogeneity in discrete choice experiments: home heating in Finland

Abstrakt

Choosing a specific heating system is a complex and difficult decision for homeowners as there exists a wide array of heating technologies with different characteristics that one can consider before purchasing. We include multiple heating technologies and attributes in our Choice Experiment design and explore the effect of perceived choice complexity on the randomness of choices. In particular, we investigate how different self-evaluated factors of choice complexity affect mean scale and scale variance. Our findings suggest that perceived choice complexity has a systematic impact on the parameters of econometric models of choice. However, there are differences between alternative self-evaluated complexity-related covariates. Results indicate that individuals who report that answering the choice tasks was difficult have less deterministic choices. Perceptions of the realism of home heating choice options also affect scale and scale variance.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Enni Ruokamo, Nick Hanley, Artti Juutinen, Rauli Svento

WP(29)220. De jure and de facto institutions – disentangling the interrelationships

Abstrakt

In this paper we contribute to the debate on the nature of institutions and their economic effects by extending the focus to the de jure – de facto institutional distinction. Firstly, we define and conceptualize de facto institutions, as well as elaborate on their place in the broad institutional system and identification. Then we investigate the possible interrelationships between de facto and de jure institutions. Finally, we make a link between these interrelationships and economic outcomes. In this way the paper fills an underexploited niche in institutional research, which is a major background for law and economics.
Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska Jacek Lewkowicz

WP(28)219. Educational mismatches and earnings: are the graduates more penalized for being overeducated?

Abstrakt

This paper estimates an extended Mincer wage regression model with Heckman correction for non-random selection using LFS data for Poland for the second quarter of 2013. Significant wage penalties are found to overeducation status as well as positive wage premia for being undereducated, which confirms findings that are found in the literature for other countries. Using Duncan and Hoffman (1981) approach, we find significant positive returns to years of overschooling and negative for underschooling. Young participants of the labour market (graduates) are less penalized for being overeducated, which suggests their overeducation is not necessarily a manifestation of lower ability.
Leszek Wincenciak

WP(27)218. Strategic use of external benefits for entry deterrence: the case of a mobile telephony market

Abstrakt

Recent models of network competition demonstrate the incentives of incumbents to reduce receiver benefits in rival networks through excessive off-net pricing. Theoretical reasoning behind strategic use of call externalities assumes that receiving calls contributes to consumer utility. This paper tests this critical assumption with choice data elicited from users of mobile telephones. We find that receiver benefits are a significant driver of subscription choices and assess customer base stealing effect encountered by the late entrant. Our findings confirm that call externalities can be used to limit late entrants’ growth as has been observed in many European mobile telephony markets.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Maciej Sobolewski

WP(26)217. Understanding the distribution of economic benefits from improving coastal and marine ecosystems

Abstrakt

The ecological status of coastal and marine waterbodies world-wide is threatened by multiple stressors, including nutrient inputs from various sources and increasing occurrences of invasive alien species. These stressors impact the environmental quality of the Baltic Sea. Each Baltic Sea country contributes to the stressors and, at the same time, is affected by their negative impacts on water quality. Understanding who benefits from improvements in coastal and marine waters is key to assessing public support for policies aimed at achieving such changes. We propose a new approach to account for variability in benefits related to differences in socio-demographics of respondents, by using a structural model of discrete choice. Our method (1) provides a convenient way of incorporating a wide range of socio-demographics as explanatory variables in conditional multinomial logit models without the risk of collinearity, and (2) is more statistically efficient than the alternative, typically used approaches. The new technique is applied in a study which examines the preferences of Latvian citizens towards improvements of the coastal and marine environment quality that could help the Baltic Sea waters of Latvia reach Good Environmental Status as required by the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Applying the discrete choice experiment method, we find that overall, Latvians are willing to pay for reducing losses of biodiversity, for improving water quality for recreation by reduced eutrophication, and for reducing new occurrences of invasive alien species. A significant group within the sample seems not to value environmental improvements in the Baltic Sea, and, thus, is unwilling to support costly measures for achieving such improvements. The structural model of discrete choice reveals substantial heterogeneity among Latvians towards changes in the quality of coastal and marine waters of Latvia.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Ewa Zawojska Kristine Pakalniete, Juris Aigars, Solvita Strake, Nick Hanley

WP(25)216. Does it pay to study abroad? Evidence from Poland

Abstrakt

Tertiary education has been perceived in Poland as a key determinant of success in the labour market, as clearly shown by the increase of the net enrolment ratio in tertiary education from 9.8% in 1990 up to 40.9% in 2009. However, as tertiary education becomes more and more popular, it does not signal skills as well as before. It seems that employers may treat students' participation in international exchange programs as a new signaling tool since according to them international students’ skills – both cognitive and non-cognitive – are well above the average. On the other hand, students participating in exchange programs underline a positive impact of studying abroad on their personal development, i.e. on their general skills. Thus, from a theoretical point of view we may expect a positive correlation between studying abroad and wages, which follows from both signaling theory and human capital theory. On the average, 16% of European students report a positive impact of participation in Erasmus exchange program on their incomes, but interestingly, those from the CEE countries, including Polish students, report it much more often. The aim of this paper is to determine whether studying abroad for at least one semester has an impact on wages of higher education graduates in Poland. To answer this question, an extended Mincer wage equation was estimated using OLS on the basis of data from the nationwide tracer survey of Polish graduates conducted in 2007 (Graduate Tracer Study 2007). The hourly net wage rate in the first job after graduating from a higher education institution was the dependent variable in the wage equation. In order to reduce the selection bias, a number of variables were included in the model to reflect students’ abilities and skills, as well as their previous international experience. The results of the analysis show that Polish students who completed at least one semester of studies abroad, enjoy a wage premium of 28% in their first workplace after graduation. Interestingly, this wage premium is particularly high in case of graduates with low abilities and skills and – consequently – of a low social and economic status. This may indicate that studying abroad contributes to a reduction of social inequality.
Jacek Liwiński

WP(24)215. Exports and growth in the New Member States. The role of global value chains

Abstrakt

We analyze the determinants of value added and productivity growth of New Member States in the period between 1995 and 2009. We show that in the analyzed countries exports contributed to between 30 to over 40% of the overall growth of GDP while the contribution of the domestic component varied from negative to over 60%. We show that in the most important export manufacturing industries of the NMS, the growth in exported value added was substantial, while the growth of the domestic component of GDP was mostly due to the growth in services. We associate growth of sectoral productivity with the foreign direct investment and exporting but, more importantly, with the position of a sector/country in the global value chains. We show that sectors that have imported intermediate goods have experienced higher productivity growth. Moreover, productivity growth was found in sectors further away from the final demand and in sectors exporting intermediate goods.
Jan Hagemejer

WP(23)214. Up or down the value chain? The comparative analysis of the GVC position of the economies of the new EU member states

Abstrakt

The pattern of trade of the Central and Eastern European countries has been changing since the beginning of the economic transition in the early 1990s. By the end of the century this process was additionally strengthened by their integration with the EU and overlapped with the development of global value chains (GVC) spanning across Europe with which the new member states (NMS) have become increasingly integrated. In this paper, we shed lights on these changes by analyzing the position of the NMS within the global value chains. We employ the upstreamness measure proposed by Antras et al. 2012 and use the World Input-Output Database. Although we observe a global increasing trend in the upstreamness of all countries, we find that the NMS have in many cases gone against this trend while converging in their production structure within their group and with the EU-15. This convergence is mostly present in Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia where the level of upstreamness in the most important exporting sectors was close to that of Germany by the end of the analyzed period 1995-2011.
Jan Hagemejer Mahdi Ghodsi

WP(22)213. A side effect of a university boom: rising incidence of overeducation among tertiary-educated workers in Poland

Abstrakt

This paper analyses changes in overeducation incidence in Poland in 2006-2014. We find that a rise in number of tertiary educated workers outpaced an increase in number of jobs requiring tertiary education, in result the share of overeducated workers in total employment almost doubled. Overeducation increase is driven mainly by mild overeducation rather than severe overeducation. We find that overeducated workers are usually young with little job experience. Women are found at lower risk of severe overeducation compared to men, but relatively more at risk of mild overeducation. Low risk of overeducation is associated with having studied technical and health programmes. Working part-time, in small firms, in private sector, and living outside big cities in less developed regions are associated with higher risk of overeducation.
Jan Aleksander Baran

WP(21)212. Post-Socialist Constitutions: The De Jure - De Facto Gap, Its Effects and Determinants

Abstrakt

In this paper we aim to contribute to the debate on constitutional rules and their economic effects by extending the focus to the de jure – de facto constitutional gap. Firstly, we provide evidence that the size of this gap matters as non-compliance lowers the effectiveness of the constitutional commitment mechanism. Secondly, we identify several explanans of this gap, in particular relating to the democratization process, political conflict, age and comprehensiveness of the constitution. We base the conclusions on an empirical study for the unique setting of the post-socialist countries of Europe and Asia, which all enacted new constitutional frameworks after 1989, and argue that the constitutions in these countries acted primarily as blueprints.
Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska

WP(20)211. Information and Learning in Stated-Preference Studies

Abstrakt

We use experimental variation to influence how people learn a given amount of objective, scientific information about an unfamiliar public good. We then estimate the impact of treatment on valuations for that good in a stated preference survey. Our main treatment, a pre-survey multiple choice quiz about objective public good attributes, increased learning rates by over 60%. We find that despite increasing learning and retention rates, treatment had no statistically significant impact on mean nor variance of the distribution of valuations. We show with a very simple theoretical model this result is consistent with a model of confirmatory bias used by agents in stated preference surveys and inconsistent with other models of preference formation.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Nick Hanley, Jacob LaRiviere, William S. Neilson, Katherine Simpson

WP(19)210. Public-private wage differential in a post-transition economy: A copula approach to the switching regression model

Abstrakt

In this study, we estimate the public sector wage premium in a post-transition economy, a quarter of a century since the collapse of the old regime. Our methodology uses a copula method to estimate the switching regression model, which allows for the relaxation of the restrictive assumption of joint normality. We control for employment selection into both sectors using an instrument based on information regarding learned professions. We use data from the Polish Survey of Earnings by Occupations (2012). Contrary to earlier results for Poland, we found positive selection into employment in both sectors, with positive ATET and negative ATEU. The results suggest that both private and public sector employees select themselves into the sector in which they earn more than they would in a counterfactual scenario.
Tomasz Gajderowicz Gabriela Grotkowska Leszek Wincenciak

WP(18)209. Reassessing the Economic Effects of Post-Socialist Constitutions Using the Synthetic Control Method

Abstrakt

In response to the problems of endogeneity and causality in comparative studies with relatively small sample sizes, a new statistical approach has recently been developed, called the synthetic control method. In this paper we apply this method to reassess the effect of constitution-making in post-socialist countries of Europe and Asia on performance of these countries in the field of economic reforms during the post-1989 transition. We first verify the existence of such effects and evaluate their statistical significance. Then we search for the explanation of these effects and their magnitude focusing on the characteristics of these constitutions and the solutions that they envisage (structural provisions, bills of rights and enforcement mechanisms). Thanks to employing this approach we are able to avoid several technical caveats that have arisen in earlier studies and verify the validity of their conclusions. In addition, we obtain country-specific results for each individual post-socialist state, as well as formulate detailed insights regarding the actual mechanisms or channels of influence of the constitutional framework on economic reforms.
Katarzyna Metelska-Szaniawska

WP(17)208. Using geographically weighted choice models to account for spatial heterogeneity of preferences

Abstrakt

In this paper we investigate the prospects of using geographically weighted choice models for modelling of spatially clustered preferences. The data used in this study comes from a discrete choice experiment survey regarding public preferences for the implementation of a new country-wide forest management and protection program in Poland. We combine it with high-resolution geographical information system data related to local forest characteristics. Using locally estimated discrete choice models we obtain location-specific estimates of willingness to pay (WTP). Variation in these estimates is explained by the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents and characteristics of the forests in their place of residence. The results are compared with those obtained from a more typical, two stage procedure which uses Bayesian posterior means of the mixed logit model random parameters to calculate individual-specific estimates of WTP. The latter approach, although easier to implement and more common in the literature, does not explicitly assume any spatial relationship between individuals. In contrast, the geographically weighted approach differs in this aspect and can provide additional insight on spatial patterns of individuals’ preferences. Our study shows that although the geographically weighted discrete choice models have some advantages, it is not without drawbacks, such as the difficulty and subjectivity in choosing an appropriate bandwidth. We find a number of notable differences in WTP estimates and their spatial distributions. At the current level of development of the two techniques, we find mixed evidence on which approach gives the better results.
Wiktor Budziński Mikołaj Czajkowski Danny Campbell, Urška Demšar, Nick Hanley

WP(16)207. Return to vocational education. Evidence from Poland

Abstrakt

Vocational education in upper-secondary school has been perceived for many years as being inferior to general education, in spite of the fact that vocational education graduates enjoy a faster transition from school to work and are more likely to have a permanent first job. As a consequence of the reform of the educational system that took place in Poland in 1999, the enrolment ratio in vocational schools has fallen dramatically. The empirical evidence in the literature on the returns to vocational education is limited. This study fills that gap and looks into wage premium for workers with vocational education in Poland before and after the reform of the educational system. The relative returns to different types and levels of education were estimated using a standard Mincerian wage equation
framework. The empirical analysis concentrated on a comparison of the relative benefits of vocational and nonvocational education. The results showed that vocational education graduates have, on average, a higher probability of finding a permanent job, and secondary-vocational education graduates receive higher earnings than secondary general education graduates in Poland. However, wages of vocational education graduates are lower than those of secondary general education. In spite of this, the decreasing number of vocational education graduates post-reform has contributed to reducing this gap.
Paweł Strawiński Paulina Broniatowska, Aleksandra Majchrowska

WP(15)206. Who is forked on GitHub? Collaboration among Open Source developers

Abstrakt

In this article we investigate which characteristics of the developers involved in the creation of Open Source software favor innovation in the Open Source community. We utilize a unique database, obtained by web-scrapping GitHub from January to March, 2016. The results of the analysis show that higher reputation in the community improves up to a certain degree the probability of gaining collaborators, but developers are also driven by reciprocity, which is consistent with the concept of gift economy. There exists also a statistically significant network effect emerging from the standarization -- developers using the most popular programming languages in the service are likely to have more collaborators. Providing additional contact information improves the chance of having coworkers. The obtained results can be generalized for the population of mature users of GitHub.
Dorota Celińska-Kopczyńska

WP(14)205. The wage premium from parents’ investments in the education of their children in Poland

Abstrakt

The aim of this paper is to determine whether parents’ investments in the education of children in Poland have an impact on the wages of the latter in adulthood. To answer this question, an extended Mincer wage equation was estimated using OLS on the basis of data from the nationwide tracer survey of Polish graduates conducted in 2007. The results of the analysis show that parents’ investments in the education of their children have a strong, positive impact on the first earnings after the end of formal education. This relationship is observed when the investment is depicted with the education level of each parent, as well as when represented by the child’s participation in various extra-curricular activities. Furthermore, if any of the above measures of parents’ investment is included in the equation, the wage premium from formal education decreases. In particular, when both these measures of parents’ investments are included in the model, the tertiary education premium declines by about one quarter, while the secondary vocational education and secondary general education are no longer significant determinants of the graduates’ wages (as compared to basic vocational education).
Jacek Liwiński Emilia Bedyk

WP(13)204. Evolution of the public-sector wage premium in Poland

Abstrakt

The aim of this paper is to estimate the adjusted sectoral wage gap in Poland in the period 1999–2012. We use a set of individual data from the survey on the structure of earnings by occupations (SEO) carried out by Central Statistical Office in Poland (CSO) every two years for entities with more than nine employees. We apply quantile regression and the Ñopo decomposition method to address several methodological problems of wage differential analysis. We show that, after controlling for structural differences in employment, there is no clear trend in the evolution of the adjusted public-sector wage premium in Poland in recent years. The parametric approach indicates a positive and growing premium, with significant variations across different parts of wage distribution. The non-parametric approach yields different results, indicating a negative premium with no clear trend in the period 1999–2012, with a declining public-sector wage penalty in recent years.
Tomasz Gajderowicz Gabriela Grotkowska Leszek Wincenciak

WP(12)203. What is the Causal Impact of Knowledge on Preferences in Stated Preference Studies?

Abstrakt

This paper reports the results of a stated preference experiment designed to test for how information provided in a survey affects knowledge, and how knowledge affects preferences for a public good. A novel experimental design allows us to elicit subjects’ ex ante knowledge levels about a good’s attributes, exogenously vary how much new objective information about these attributes we provide to subjects, elicit subjects’ valuation for the good, and elicit posterior knowledge states about the same attributes. We find evidence of incomplete learning and fatigue: as subjects are told more information, their marginal learning rates decrease. We find there is no marginal impact of knowledge on the mean nor the variance of WTP for changes in the environmental good; but that ex ante knowledge does affect stated WTP. Our results are consistent with preference formation models of confirmation bias, costly search, or timing differences in learning and preference formation. Our results raise questions about the purpose and effects of providing information in stated preference studies.
Mikołaj Czajkowski Jacob LaRiviere, Nick Hanley, Katherine Simpson

WP(11)202. Public Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Discrete Choice Experiment

Abstrakt

Our study examines public acceptability of the EU’s future mitigation targets. Using the discrete choice experiment, we elicit the preferences of about 4,098 respondents from the Czech Republic, Poland, and the United Kingdom for the GHG emission reduction policies that differ in four attributes: emission reduction target, burden sharing across the EU Member States, the distribution of costs within each country, and cost. The three specific reduction targets we analysed correspond to the EU 2050 Roadmap and deep decarbonisation policy (80% target), the climate-energy 2014 targets (40% target), and the status quo policy (20% target); each will result in a specific emission trajectory by 2050. Our results reveal stark differences between the three countries. Czechs would be on average willing to pay around EUR 13 per household and year for the 40% GHG emission reductions by 2030 or EUR 17 for 80% reduction target by 2050, and the citizens of the UK are willing to pay about EUR 40. Conversely, the mean willingness to pay of the Polish household for adopting more stringent targets is not statistically different from zero. The willingness to pay for adopting 40% and 80% targets are not statistically different in any of the examined countries. However, we found that the preferences in all three countries are highly heterogeneous. In addition, we provide an insight into the preferred characteristics of the future GHG emission reduction policies.
Katarzyna Zagórska Mikołaj Czajkowski Milan Ščasný, Iva Zvěřinová, Eva Kyselá

WP(10)201. Applying Exogenous Variables and Regime Switching to Multifactor Models on Equity Indices

Abstrakt

This article aims to extend the evaluation of classic multifactor models of Carhart(1997) for the case of global equity indices and to expand analysis performed in Sakowski, Slepaczuk, and Wywial (2015). Our intention is to test several modifications of these models to take into account different dynamics of equity excess returns between emerging and developed equity indices. Proposed extensions include volatility regime switching mechanism (using dummy variables and the Markov approach) and three new risk factors based on realized volatility of index returns, percentage deviation from nominal GDP trend and capitalisation relative to GDP factor. Additional modifications include introduction of common and country specific variables in order to control for global risk where fluctuations of volatility of various assets, prices of commodities, currencies and rates is really important. Moreover, instead of using data for individual stocks (which is a common approach in the literature), we evaluate the performance of these models for weekly data of 81 world investable equity indices in the period of 2000-2015. Such approach is proposed to estimate equity risk premium for a single country. Empirical evidence from the first part reveals important differences between results for classical models estimated on single stocks (either in international or US-only frame work) and models evaluated for equity indices. Additionally, we observe substantial discrepancies between results for developed countries and emerging markets. The last part of this research helps us to understand results revealed in the first part. Thanks to introduction of new risk factors, and additional common and country specific variables we were able to increase explanatory power of our factor models especially in case of emerging market indices. Finally, using weekly data for the last 15 years we illustrate importance of model risk and data overfitting effects when drawing conclusions upon results of multifactor models.
Paweł Sakowski Robert Ślepaczuk Mateusz Wywiał

WP(9)200. Can We Invest Based on Equity Risk Premia and Risk Factors from Multi-Factor Models?

Abstrakt

We find that detailed analysis of multi-factor models makes it possible to propose investment strategies based on equity risk premium disequlibrium. We examine two investment algorithms built on weekly data of world equity indices for emerging and developed countries in the period of 2000-2015. We create seven risk factors using additional data about market capitalisation, book value, country GDP and betas of equity indices. The first strategy utilises theoretical value of equity risk premium from seven-factor Markov-switching model with variables common for all countries and variables specific to developed/emerging countries. We compare theoretical with realised equity risk premium for a given index to undertake the buy/sell decisions. The second algorithm works only on eight risk factors and applies them as input variables to Markowitz models with alternative optimisation criteria (target risk, target return, maximum Sharpe ratio, minimum variance and equally weighted assets). Finally, we notice that the impact of risk factors on final results of investment strategy is much more important than the selection of a particular econometric model in order to correctly evaluate equity risk premium.
Paweł Sakowski Robert Ślepaczuk Mateusz Wywiał

WP(8)199. Do Multi-Factor Models Produce Robust Results? Econometric and Diagnostic Issues in Equity Risk Premia Study

Abstrakt

In recent decades numerous studies verified empirical validity of the CAPM model. Many of them showed that CAPM alone is not able to explain cross-sectional variation of stock returns. Researchers revealed various risk factors which explained outperformance of given groups of stocks or proposed modifcations to existing multi-factor models. 
Surprisingly, we hardly find any discussion in financial literature about potential drawbacks of applying standard OLS method to estimate parameters of such models. Yet, the question of robustness of OLS results to invalid assumptions shouldn't be ignored. This article aims to address diagnostic and econometric issues which can influence results of a time-series multifactor model. 
Based on the preliminary results of a five-factor model for 81 emerging and developed equity indices (Sakowski, Slepaczuk and Wywial, 2016a) obtained with OLS we check the robustness of these results to popular violations of OLS assumptions. We find autocorrelation of error term, heteroscedasticity and ARCH effects for most of 81 regressions and apply an AR-GARCH model using MLE to remove them. We also identify outliers and diagnose collinearity problems. Additionally, we apply GMM to avoid strong assumption of IID error term. 
Finally, we present comparison of parameters estimates and Rsquared values obtained by three different methods of estimation: OLS, MLE and GMM. We find that results do not differ substantially between these three methods and allow to draw the same conclusions from the investigated five-factor model.
Paweł Sakowski Robert Ślepaczuk Mateusz Wywiał

WP(7)198. Determinants of Polish Enterprises' Propensity to Lease

Abstrakt

The paper identifies determinants of financing the purchase of tangible assets by Polish enter-prises with use of financial and operating lease. Analysis of financial lease was based on sta-tistical annual reports for the years 1995−2011 (about 50 thousands companies per year), while research of operating lease used half-year reports for the years 2007−2011, both with use of System GMM. The literature of the subject continuously pursues to explain the rela-tions between choosing a lease and other sources of capital, mainly bank loans. Therefore, the main focus of the study is on the dependence between the capital lease and the long-term bank loan, as well as on the relations between the operating lease, the short-term loan and the long-term debt-based financing with no financial lease element (net). The analyses indicate that medium-sized and large companies are more inclined to finance their assets with capital leas-es than small business and that large companies use more capital leases than small businesses do. It was found that a higher degree of the long-term loan financing results in a lower degree of capital leasing, which indicates the long-term bank loan and capital lease substitutability, similarly as reported by Marston & Harris (1988), Beattie, Goodacre & Thomson (2000), Singh (2011), as well as Lin et al. (2013). The findings for factors affecting the propensity to finance assets with operating leases proves the substitutability of an operating lease and a short-term bank loan, similarly as reported by Beattie, Goodacre & Thomson (2000), Filareto-Deghaye & Singh (2011), as well as Singh (2011).
Anna Białek-Jaworska Natalia Nehrebecka

WP(6)197. EWS-GARCH: New Regime Switching Approach to Forecast Value-at-Risk

Abstrakt

In the study a proposal of two-step EWS-GARCH models to forecast Value-at-Risk is presented. The EWS-GARCH allows different distributions of returns to be used in Value-at-Risk forecasting depending on a forecasted state of the financial time series. In the study EWS-GARCH with GARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1) with the amendment to the empirical distribution of returns as a Value-at-Risk model in a state of tranquillity and empirical tail, exponential or Pareto distributions used to forecast Value-at-Risk in a state of turbulence were considered. The evaluation of the quality of the Value-at-Risk forecasts was based on the Value-at-Risk forecasts adequacy (the excess ratio, the Kupiec test, the Christoffersen test, the asymptotic test of unconditional coverage and the back-testing criteria defined by the Basel committee) and the analysis of loss functions (the Lopez quadratic loss function, the Abad & Benito absolute loss function, the 3rd version of Caporin loss function and proposed in the study the function of excessive costs). Obtained results indicate that the EWS-GARCH models may improve the quality of the Value-at-Risk forecasts generated using benchmark models. However, the choice of best assumptions for an EWS-GARCH model should depend on the goals of the Value-at-Risk forecasting model. The final selection may depend on an expected level of adequacy, conservatism and costs of a model.
Marcin Chlebus

WP(5)196. Are all researchers male? Gender misattributions in citations

Abstrakt

In this project I screen academic literature for cases of misattribution of cited author's gender. In English-language scientific publications such mistakes are found to be rare, partly because there is typically no need to attribute gender in the first place. By contrast, in master theses and doctoral dissertations (in social sciences) written in the Polish language, which typically requires gender attribution, more than 20% of female scholars are incorrectly cited as if they were men. In all my samples, mistakes involving males being cited as if they were women are dramatically less frequent, suggesting that gender misattributions are strongly shaped by the gender-science stereotype. The gender of the citing author and the field of study appear to have only limited effect
Michał Krawczyk

WP(4)195. Time Pressure and Risk Taking in Auctions: A Field Experiment

Abstrakt

Auctions often require risk taking under time pressure. However, little is known about how time pressure moderates the relationship between uncertainty of outcomes and bidding behavior. This study consists of a field experiment in which participants are invited to a Vickrey auction to elicit their willingness to pay for a lottery ticket. The time available to place a bid and also the skewness of the lottery (holding the expected value constant) are systematically manipulated. We find that under high time pressure participants are less likely to place a bid at all. Furthermore, participants who do place a bid under high time pressure bid significantly less than participants under low time pressure. The main finding is thus that increased time pressure significantly decreases risk taking. The effect seems to be particularly strong for the lottery with a high probability of winning and for female subjects.
Michał Krawczyk Marek Sylwestrzak Ewa Zawojska Anouar El Haji

WP(3)194. The role of bank credit in business financing in Poland

Abstrakt

The purpose of the paper is to verify the applicability of the pecking order theory to Polish non-finance companies’ inclination to use credit-based financing, as well as to indicate the long-term and short-term bank credit use determinants, including the monetary policy impact and the year effect. The analysis covers a sample of 800,000 observations across the period 1995-2011, using the GMM sys-tem method. The impact of foreign and government ownership, the share of exports, profitability, liquidity, fixed assets collateral and monetary policy are the determinants of the long-term and short-term bank loan in business financing investigated in the study. For small and medium-sized enterprises, a negative correlation is found between profitability and both long- and short-term loan financing, as well as between liquidity and short-term loan financing, ac-cording to what the pecking order theory assumes. A negative impact of restrictive monetary policy effected via interest rate and rate of exchange channels on Polish firms’ decisions as regards financing their business with short-term bank loan is found. The effect of the current and previous period payment gridlocks on short-term bank loan financing experienced by small and medium-sized enterprises should help banks adjust their loan offer to SMEs’ needs. The correlation between the bankruptcy risk level and companies’ short-term borrowing decisions – positive in the group of large firms and ad-verse among SMEs – should guide banks’ loan committees when modifying their creditworthiness analysis and loan application verification procedures. The use of (S)VAR panel method for investigating the response of the bank loan financing level to the interest rate, exchange rate and credit risk disturbance (shock) are the original aspects of the study. The empirical evidence that a higher share of liquid securities in assets reduces the use of short-term loan and that in small firms its level in a previous period is positively correlated with the use of short-term bank loan financing is the added value of the paper.
Anna Białek-Jaworska Natalia Nehrebecka

WP(2)193. Publication selection bias in the sources of financing the enterprises research? A Meta-Regression Analysis

Abstrakt

This article discusses the verification of the effect of publication in the studies regarding the sources of financing business operations. The studies related to the determinants of the use of bank loans, trade credits and lease were analysed. There is a probability that the results presented in literature may be encumbered by the problem of statistical significance selection (so-called: publication selection bias). The works which show a weaker correlation or a lack of significance are less attractive and are seldom published – they are viewed as not providing enough contribution to science and not explaining the studied phenomena.
Natalia Nehrebecka Aneta Dzik-Walczak

WP(1)192. One-Day Prediction of State of Turbulence for Portfolio. Models for Binary Dependent Variable.

Abstrakt

This paper proposes an approach to predict states (states of tranquillity and turbulence) for a current portfolio in a one-day horizon. The prediction is made using 3 different models for a binary variable (LOGIT, PROBIT, CLOGLOG), 4 definitions of a dependent variable (1%, 5%, 10%, 20% of worst realization of returns), 3 sets of independent variables (untransformed data, PCA analysis and factor analysis). Additionally an optimal cut-off point analysis is performed. The evaluation of the models was based on the LR test, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, GINI coefficient analysis and KROC criterion based on the ROC curve. 
Six combinations of assumptions have been chosen as appropriate (any model for a binary variable, the dependent variable defined as 5% or 10% of worst realization of returns, untransformed data, 5% or 10% cut-off point respectively). Models built on these assumptions meet all the formal requirements and have a high predictive and discriminant ability.
Marcin Chlebus

Serwisy *.wne.uw.edu.pl używają plików cookies zapisywanych na komputerach użytkowników. Są one niezbędne do prawidłowego działania mechanizmów stron internetowych Wydziału Nauk Ekonomicznych UW.

Szczegółowe informacje o Polityce obsługi cookies w serwisach Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego dostępne są na stronie https://www.uw.edu.pl/polityka-obslugi-cookies-ciasteczek-w-serwisach-uw