Certyfikat jakości 
kształcenia dla WNE

EBCL
WNE Centrum
Egzaminacyjnym EBC*L 

WP(26)66. The cost of reducing CO2 emissions: Integrating abatement technologies into economic modeling

Abstrakt

We explore two methods of incorporating bottom-up abatement cost estimates into top-down modeling: economy-wide and sector-specific. Carbon emissions depend basically on technology and scale. Given the technology options, abatement is possible without a substantial reduction in scale. Otherwise the change must come purely through a reduction in demand. Our analysis shows that the cost of environmental policy is considerably overestimated by top-down models if a bottom-up abatement cost curve is not included. Using the data for the Swiss economy, we demonstrate two techniques of representing abatement function explicitly in a computable general equilibrium model: a traditional and a hybrid (discrete technology modeling) approaches. The results suggest that the current climate policy in Switzerland will not be able to move the economy towards the required 10% CO2 reduction. Both approaches provide virtually the same results when calibration process is precisely executed, which contradicts the results in previous studies.
Olga Kiuila Thomas F. Rutherford

WP(25)65. Dynamic caliper matching

Abstrakt

Matched sampling is a methodology used to estimate treatment effects. A caliper mechanism is used to achieve better similarity among matched pairs. We investigate finite sample properties of matching with calipers and propose a slight modification to the existing mechanism. The simulation study compares the performance of both methods and shows that a standard caliper performs well only in case of constant treatment or uniform propensity score distribution. Secondly, in a case of non-uniform distribution or non-uniform treatment the dynamic caliper method outperforms standard caliper matching.
Paweł Strawiński

WP(24)64. Inequality decomposition by population subgroups for ordinal data

Abstrakt

We present a class of decomposable inequality indices for ordinal data (e.g. self-reported health survey). It is characterized by well-known inequality axioms (e.g. scale invariance) and a decomposability axiom which states that an index can be represented as a function of inequality values in subgroups and subgroup sizes. The only decomposable indices are strictly monotonic transformations of the weighted average of frequencies in categories. Among the indices proposed in the literature only the absolute value index (Abul Naga and Yalcin, 2008; Apouey, 2007) is decomposable. As an empirical illustration we calculate regional contributions to overall health inequality in Switzerland.
Martyna Kobus, Piotr Miłoś

WP(23)63. Multidimensional poverty analysis in Polish gminas

Abstrakt

In this paper we present the results of multidimensional poverty analysis in five Polish gminas: Zgierz, Gliwice, Gostyń, Małogoszcz and Manowo. Income and educational attainment are two dimensions of well-being we consider. The analysis is based on the concept of stochastic dominance known in the literature on decision making under uncertainty. In two out of ten cases bidimensional comparisons help to remove inconclusiveness that arises with unidimensional comparisons. Moreover, bidimensional approach indicates that Gostyń dominates other communities in terms of well-being (lack of poverty), which would be impossible to be revealed by unidimensional analysis only. This is due to low correlation of income and years of education. Association between variables is a distinctive feature of multidimensional analysis as opposed to comparing marginal distributions only (dimension by dimension separately). It means that it is less possible in Gostyń than in other gminas to be deprived in both dimensions. We also find a pattern that already emerged in other multidimensional results (Duclos, Sahn and Younger, 2006): multidimensional poverty can be greater in cities (Gliwice) than in areas that are at least partially rural (Gostyń).
Marta Anacka, Martyna Kobus

WP(22)62. International Openness and Social Development as Endogenous Determinants of Growth

Abstrakt

We study empirically the impact of social indicators on growth in the context of FDI and trade. In this article, we argue that the positive growth effects of FDI and trade arise from factors such as knowledge spillovers or technological upgrading. Therefore, the effect of FDI and trade depends on the structural and sectoral investment composition, which depends in turn on social indicators such as income inequality, human development, education, and health.
Łukasz Goczek

WP(21)61. The Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Liberalization in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstrakt

After the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) many countries in the region radically liberalized their foreign trade regimes in the 1990s. In particular preferential trade liberalization in the CEE countries has been promoted by the European Union in the form of the association agreements that involved 'vertical' trade liberalization between the EU and countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to this the CEE countries liberalized trade 'horizontally' among themselves in the form of sub-regional and bilateral free trade agreements. In this paper, we use the generalized gravity equation estimated on bilateral trade data for ten CEE countries during the period of 1993-2004 to evaluate the effectiveness of preferential trade liberalization in Central and Eastern Europe. We find that all forms of preferential trade liberalization positively contributed to the expansion of trade of the CEE countries but their impact was country specific.
Andrzej Cieślik Jan Hagemejer

WP(20)60. Measuring progress in reading achievement between primary and secondary school across countries

Abstrakt

This paper discusses a method to compare progress in reading achievement from primary to secondary school across countries. The method is similar to value-added models that take into account intake levels when comparing student progress in different schools. Value-added models are preferred over raw scores as they better reflect school efforts. The method dis-cussed in this paper uses measures of achievement in primary schools from PIRLS and compares them to secondary school results from PISA. Changes in achievement are estimated using IRT models and random draws of test items. Results describe an interval in which estimates of progress can lie, depending on the comparability of these two assessments. Estimates of progress are also adjusted for student age, gender and other characteristics that differ between countries and surveys. Separate results by gender, immigrant status, and proficiency level provide a detailed picture of how students in different countries progress in school from the age of 10 to 15.
Maciej Jakubowski Artur Pokropek

WP(19)59. Accounting for recent trends in absolute poverty in Poland: A decomposition analysis

Abstrakt

This paper uses several decomposition of poverty and poverty changes to identify factors explaining recent changes in absolute income and consumption poverty in Poland during 1998-2008. Shapley decompositions of poverty changes into growth and redistribution components show that fast economic growth was the main source of a radical fall in absolute poverty since 2005. Distributional changes had a more profound effect on absolute poverty during 1998-2005. Sectoral decompositions of poverty suggest that stagnant wages and pensions as well as growing unemployment were major factors accounting for increasing poverty between 1998 and 2005. Decompositions of poverty indices by income sources show that social insurance is the most effective income source in reducing poverty incidence in Poland, while social assistance is the most effective source in fighting intensity of poverty.
Michał Brzeziński

WP(18)58. Has recent economic growth in Poland been pro-poor?

Abstrakt

This paper applies two recently introduced measurement frameworks to analyze the effects of economic growth and inequality changes on the performance of the poor's living standard in Poland during the recent decade of 1998-2008. We use both an approach based on a general class of pro-poorness indices as well as dominance-based techniques, which allow for robust statistical inference on pro-poorness. Using repeated cross-sectional household survey data, we find that over the decade, there was a statistically significant absolute pro-poor growth in Poland for both disposable income and consumption. However, because of the increasing inequality, the rates of growth for incomes and consumption of the poor were generally lower than those of the non-poor. For this reason, economic growth over the decade was anti-poor in relative terms. The pro-poorness indices used suggest that the only episode of relative pro-poorness was for income growth during fast-growth years from 2005 to 2008. This result holds, however, only for a limited range of possible poverty lines.
Michał Brzeziński

WP(17)57. Institutional uncertainty and retirement decisions in Poland

Abstrakt

The paper analyzes the factors influencing situation and retirement decisions of different cohorts in Poland in years 1995-2007. We checked if changes in economic activity at the later stage of professional life can be observed via changes in the social security legislation and their consequences for different cohorts.
Separate pseudo-panel models were estimated for men and women based on the annual Household Budget Survey datasets. The results show that apart from variables usually identified in the literature that have a significant impact on retirement decisions, institutional changes are also significant in case of Poland. Especially regulations concerning access to pre-retirement allowances and benefits turned out to be significant, as well as changes in possibility to combine work and receiving pension. 
Grzegorz Kula Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska

WP(16)56. Interactions between trade and environmental policies in the Czech economy

Abstrakt

Pollution charges are directly applied on exported and domestic, but not imported commodities. We investigate how environmental taxation affects foreign trade in the Czech Republic. Using computable general equilibrium modeling with bottom-up approach, we consider a small-open economy with endogenous unemployment, fixed exchange rate, ten types of taxes and six air-pollutants. Emission reduction is possible through substitution with less polluting inputs, a reduction of output, or abatement. The results show that the imports should not be affected, except coal and electricity. Exports will increase in the light and the biomass industries. The overall effect on the trade balance is slightly negative.
Olga Kiuila

WP(15)55. Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals.

Abstrakt

Studies show that people tend to provide overly narrow confidence intervals for unknown values. Such a form of overconfidence would have an important impact on financial markets, among other domains, leading i.a. to excessive trading. The present study is one of the very few that try to incentivize reporting correct confidence intervals. To this end, a reward scheme is proposed, based on a combination of asymmetric loss functions minimized by appropriate quantiles of a probability distribution. In the experiment I find that incentivized subjects provide wider confidence intervals, obtaining a higher hit rate than the control group. The effect is stronger than that of feedback and explicit warning. These findings suggest that the overly narrow confidence intervals reported elsewhere are partly due to an insufficient mental effort that subjects exert and that they can be induced to do so by the proposed incentive scheme.
Michał Krawczyk

WP(14)54. Framing in the field. A simple experiment on the reflection effect

Abstrakt

This study makes use of an unusual opportunity to manipulate framing of a simple decision under uncertainty: whether or not to answer an exam question when unsure which answer is correct and a missing response is scored higher than an incorrect one. Two treatments were compared in a natural field experiment: one in which the decision was framed in terms of losses, and the other - in terms of gains. Some alternative theories of decision making under risk, notably prospect theory, propose that individuals display reflection effect, i.e. tend to be more risk-seeking in losses than gains. No such evidence was found: subjects were generally risk-averse and this disposition was not affected by treatment.
Michał Krawczyk

WP(13)53. To answer or not to answer? A field test of loss aversion

Abstrakt

This study is a field experiment on loss aversion. The framing of scoring rules was differentiated in two exams at the University of Warsaw, with only half the students facing explicit penalty points in the case of giving an incorrect answer. Loss aversion predicts that less risk will be taken (less questions will be answered) when losses are possible but in fact, no treatment effect was observed.
Michał Krawczyk

WP(12)52. Approximation of Marginal Abatement Cost Curve

Abstrakt

 Top-down models usually include piecewise-smooth functions to describe marginal cost curves, while bottom-up models describe those curves with a step function. When a bottom-up cost curve is available, we can explicitly represent this curve with a top-down model in order to replicate its shape instead of arbitrary assumptions. We propose methods to approximate a piecewise function from a step function using constant elasticity of substitution technologies. Specifically, we consider a pollution abatement sector and calibrate the parameters of the abatement function in order to be able properly to assess the economic effects of an environmental policy. Our methodology can be applied to any sector characterized by decreasing returns to scale technologies. We conclude that the elasticities of substitution need not be estimated only on the basis of historical data, but can be precisely calibrated on the basis of engineering estimates of technology potential.
Olga Kiuila Thomas F. Rutherford

WP(11)51. An experimental study on multi-dimensional spatial product differentiation

Abstrakt

This study presents the results of an experiment on spatial differentiation of products in Hotelling-type models with different grades of complexity for companies' choices of space. Three models were compared, including models with a single decision variable (single-dimensional space with automatically calculated prices), two decision variables (single-dimensional space with prices assigned by the participants) and three decision variables (bi-dimensional space with prices assigned by the participants). The research revealed that in more complex conditions, the product differentiation was smaller and that the prices were lower than in a simple environment when the Nash equilibrium was confirmed. Companies that function in complex conditions do not take advantage of the opportunity to make high profits based on product differentiation. This has a greater impact on price rigidity with respect to product variety than could be theoretically predicted. Strategies based on product differentiation are, therefore, less profitable than expected based on theoretical predictions.
Przemysław Kusztelak

WP(10)50. Educational Aspirations

Abstrakt

The purpose of this study is to check to what extent different environmental and institutional surroundings affect educational aspirations. We conduct a comparison study between different local municipalities in Poland. We use statistical description to compare educational aspirations in selected regions of Poland and apply econometric techniques to test formally the relation between educational aspirations and education, income and other socioeconomic factors. We show that the level of aspirations is well diversified and is higher in developed areas of Poland. We also found that contrary to the existing literature, the educational aspirations seem to rise with age of the respondent.
Paweł Strawiński

WP(9)49. Does a change of occupation lead to higher earnings?

Abstrakt

The aim of this paper is to identify how the mobility between different types of broadly defined occupation (hired work, self-employment in industry, services and agriculture or social security beneficiaries) changes personal income of individuals. We apply the Markov matrices to the panel data on 30540 individuals for 2007-2008 from the Polish Household Budget Surveys. Our hypothesis is that a change of occupation affects individual capability to earn income, controlling for the occupation a person quits and the occupation a person starts, as well as age, education level and a permanent or temporary character of work. We test our hypothesis using the regression analysis. Our results show that the inter-occupational mobility matters mostly for those quitting hired work for self-employment, for the better educated, as well as for respondents above 60 years of age.
Zofia Barbara Liberda Marek Pęczkowski

WP(8)48. Earning and saving competences of individuals in a local community in Poland

Abstrakt

The aim of this paper is to identify variables that affect the capability of an individual to earn and save income. Our hypothesis is that besides demographic and human capital determinants, social, cultural and psychological variables affect strongly the individual's earning and saving competences. We test our hypothesis using a method of decision tree (Exhaustive search Chi - squared Automatic Interaction Detection) to identify the earning and saving competences of individuals in Poland. In the decision tree analysis we found factors that are conducive for earning and saving. These factors includes: fairness, attitude towards cheating at exams, tolerance towards persons of different religion and different skin color, trust in judges and scientists, social risk aversion, evaluating own health status, asking for advice. This theoretical approach is applied to micro data from a Survey on Civilization Competences of individuals in local communities conducted in July-September 2009 in five regions of Poland.
Zofia Barbara Liberda Magdalena Szymczak

WP(7)47. Known Knowns and Known Unknowns of Immigrant Self-employment. Selected issues

Abstrakt

The paper presents a review of selected definitional issues, theoretical concepts and most recent empirical evidence related to the phenomenon of immigrant self-employment. Based on the appraisal of gathered material it also points to possible areas of development of future research in the field.
Joanna Tyrowicz

WP(6)46. Analysis of Polish business demography using Markov chains

Abstrakt

The article describes the use of the Markov chains methodology for analysis of demographic evolution of Polish enterprises in the years 2003 - 2009. According to the results' presented in the article, flexibility of Polish companies' activity in changing economic conditions is stable. The level of migration between sectors is low and limited to several sectors. Expected company life is relatively short (on average, Polish companies exist more than twice shorter than e.g. Belgian companies subject to a study by the National Bank of Belgium). In general, the least 'vital' companies may be considered companies from the transport section and then from the building industry, other services and commerce sections. Enterprises that stay on the market the longest are companies from the agricultural and industrial sectors. The mean value of the closeness to extinction indicator amounts to 46% for the whole population. Among all sectors and sections, non-specialised exporters have the highest average age. State-owned companies have significantly higher both the average age and the remaining lifetime than private companies. The bigger is a company the higher is its average age and average remaining lifetime.
Natalia Nehrebecka

WP(5)45. Returns from income strategies in rural Poland

Abstrakt

 In Poland, rural households are encouraged to diversify their activities both in and outside the agricultural sector in order to stabilize and improve their income. However, relatively few households appear to do this. This paper addresses this issue, investigating the returns from the income strategies of rural households using propensity score matching methods and extensive data sets for 1998-2008. The results suggest that returns from combining farm and off-farm activities are lower than returns from specialization, namely, concentrating on either farming or off-farm activities. The income difference between farmers and those who combine farming and off-farm activities increased after Poland joined the European Union.
Jan Fałkowski Maciej Jakubowski Paweł Strawiński

WP(4)44. Demand linkages and spatial agglomeration of Indian states

Abstrakt

In this paper, we examine the spatial relationship between wages and consumer purchasing power across Indian states to see whether regional demand linkages contribute to spatial agglomeration. We estimate a variety of the market-potential functions derived from the Harris model as well as more recent models of the New Economic Geography. Besides market-potential, we consider housing stock, density of roadways, density of telecom, and dummies to capture cyclical fluctuations as parameters of consumer purchasing power and demand to explore the importance of scale economies and transport costs. The estimation results suggest that all the above factors influence demand linkages between states, which are strong and growing over the period from 1999-2000 to 2007-2008.
Andrzej Cieślik Sadananda Prusty

WP(3)43. How do we value our income from which we save?

Abstrakt

In this paper we analyze the relationship between the perception of income as satisfying household needs and saving rate of this household. Using the multinomial logit regression function we measure the probability of a household to fall into one of the groups categorized by the subjective perception of income in relation to the current household disposable income. The variable specified for the valuation of income is income perception, defined as a class of observed disposable income located on the scale of the subjectively satisfying income. Factors determining the perception of income are: gender and education of the household head, family characteristics, source of income and place of residence. The analysis of relations between the income perception and the household saving rates shows that the perception of income affects both the household observed and predicted saving rates. The research is based on the Household Budget Surveys data for Poland in 2008. (Revised version: October 2012)
Zofia Barbara Liberda Marek Pęczkowski Ewa Gucwa-Leśny

WP(2)42. Impact of GDP volatility on current account balances

Abstrakt

This paper empirically investigates the impact of GDP volatility on current account balances for a large sample of developed and developing countries. We extend the standard set of short- and long-term determinants of current accounts to include GDP volatility computed from the annual growth rate of GDP. It turns out that for low income countries the impact of GDP volatility on their current account balances is negative, whereas the reverse is true for high income countries. The intertemporal approach to the balance of payments followed in this paper suggests that a diverse response of current account balances to GDP volatility can be due to the different degree of shock persistence in developed and developing countries.
Michał Brzozowski Sadananda Prusty

WP(1)41. The coincident and the leading business cycle indicators for Poland

Abstrakt

In the paper, two indicators, the coincident and the leading indicator, are proposed to represent the aggregated economic activity in Poland. The indicators are constructed with stochastic cycle and trend model. Not only does the presented approach solve the problem of existence of stochastic trends in the observed series, but it also allows to account for a different data span of each series in dataset.
Rafał Woźniak

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