Certyfikat jakości 
kształcenia dla WNE

EBCL
WNE Centrum
Egzaminacyjnym EBC*L 

WP(17)40. Economic determinants of sport participation in Poland

Abstrakt

The article presents statistical description of economic factors that determine sport participation in Poland. Utilising data from 2008 Sport Participation Survey the biprobit model that takes into account the dependency between individuals and household attitude to sport participation is estimated. Sport participation is found to slightly decline with age of a person, on the other hand, education is found to be positively related to sport participation. The idiosyncratic factor of sport participation in Poland is the influence of children; they seem to encourage their relatives to partake in physical activity. Additionally, both the income level of a household and a personal income of a person have an influence on sport participation.
Paweł Strawiński

WP(16)39. Which Option Pricing Model is the Best? High Frequency Data for Nikkei225 Index Options

Abstrakt

Option pricing models are the main subject of many research papers prepared both in academia and financial industry. Using high-frequency data for Nikkei225 index options, we check the properties of option pricing models with different assumptions concerning the volatility process (historical, realized, implied, stochastic or based on GARCH model). In order to relax the continuous dividend payout assumption, we use the Black model for pricing options on futures, instead of the Black-Scholes-Merton model. The results are presented separately for 5 classes of moneyness ratio and 5 classes of time to maturity in order to show some patterns in option pricing and to check the robustness of our results. The Black model with implied volatility (BIV) comes out as the best one. Highest average pricing errors we obtain for the Black model with realized volatility (BRV). As a result, we do not see any additional gain from using more complex and time-consuming models (SV and GARCH models. Additionally, we describe liquidity of the Nikkei225 option pricing market and try to compare our results with a detailed study for the emerging market of WIG20 index options (Kokoszczyński et al. 2010b).
Ryszard Kokoszczyński Paweł Sakowski Robert Ślepaczuk

WP(15)38. Midquotes or Transactional Data? The Comparison of Black Model on HF Data

Abstrakt

The main idea of this research is to check the efficiency of the Black option pricing model on the basis of HF emerging market data. However, liquidity constraints - a typical feature of an emerging derivatives market - put severe limits for conducting such a study. That is the reason why Kokoszczynski et al., 2010, have conducted their earlier research on midquotes data treating them as potential transactional data. They have got some intriguing conclusions about implementing different volatility processes into the Black option model. Nevertheless, taking into account that midquotes do not have to be the proper representation of market prices as probably transactional data do, we decide to compare in this paper the results of the research conducted on HF transactional and midquotes data. This comparison shows that the results do not differ significantly between these two approaches and that BIV model significantly outperforms other models, especially BRV model with the latter producing the worst results. Additionally, we provide the discussion of liquidity issue in the context of emerging derivatives market. Finally, after exclusion of spurious outliers we observe significant patterns in option pricing that are not visible on the raw data.
Ryszard Kokoszczyński Robert Ślepaczuk Paweł Sakowski

WP(14)37. Crises and Joint Employment-Productivity Dynamics: A Comparative Perspective for European Countries

Abstrakt

The aim of the paper is to investigate the short-term joint dynamics of productivity and employment during the economic down cycles in the EU economies over the past 20 years. Disentangling the shift in labour demand into a change of employment-productivity schedule and a movement along it, we focus on the last 2-3 crises, highlighting the peculiarities of the last recession. Namely, we demonstrate that many of the EU countries - unlike the United States - do not follow the RBC pattern. We also suggest some possible institutional fundamentals that could explain this phenomenon.
Joanna Tyrowicz Enrico Marelli, Marcello Signorelli

WP(13)36. Impact Of Social Capital On Individual Well-Being In Poland - Proxy-Based Approach

Abstrakt

In this paper we attempt to quantify the impact of social capital on individual well-being. We follow the Putnam (1995) approach and select five key social capital components to construct a synthetic index for social capital using a multivariate probit model. Social capital is considered as one of the three crucial individual endowments: physical capital, human capital and social capital. The impact of the synthetically constructed social capital index on individual's well-being is estimated using a Mincer type earning equation. The results show that social capital explains up to 20% of income variation both at individual and household level. However, human capital and physical capital remain the critical determinants of individual income.
Paweł Strawiński Anna Grochowska

WP(12)35. Not all that glitters. The direct effects of privatization through foreign investment

Abstrakt

 Although foreign subsidiaries usually perform better than the average of the hosting economies, empirical literature has also established that the selection effect is statistically significant. In this paper we attempt to evaluate its economic relevance, using a unique dataset of annual financial reports by all medium and large Polish enterprises over a period 1996-2007. We match firms privatized with the use of FDI to a control group of non-privatized state owned companies in order to disentangle the effect of self-selection and FDI entry.
Evidence suggests that although FDI enters more frequently into companies who already participate in the international trading networks, roughly half of the export intensity differential may be attributed to the entry of FDI. On the other hand, selection effects seem to dominate as far as efficiency is concerned, while only towards the end of the sample the positive effect of FDI on profitability may be confirmed. 
Jan Hagemejer Joanna Tyrowicz

WP(11)34. Transition to full-time employment status based on two-equation and three-equation probit model with endogenous switching

Abstrakt

This paper examines employment transitions among men and women in Poland aged between 20 and 65 based on the data from the CHER (Consortium of Household Panels for European Socio-Economic Research). The research results show that the state of the person in a given year is not only dependent upon his/her state in the previous year, but also upon whether he/she was in that state the years before. Moreover, the study proves that the impact of individual characteristics of persons on the conditional probability of retaining a given status depends on the persons' employment record, which confirms the rejection of the null hypothesis regarding the 'interdependence of states'. As a result of this study, we can determine that, as expected, being in a given state, just like entry in to that state, are conditioned by demographic characteristics and the human capital of the respondent, as well as by the characteristics of the household, although the impact of these variables depends on the occupational background of that person. This implies that every individual may get trapped in non-employment and, ideally, policy should intervene as soon as the individual begins non-employment period. This article also includes statistics describing the duration of each status and time spent outside of the status by persons with different combinations of characteristics calculated based on the parameter estimation of the model.
Natalia Nehrebecka

WP(10)33. Testing sensitivity of willingness to pay for mortality risk reduction

Abstrakt

Contingent valuation method was used in this study to elicit willingness to pay for risk reduction of dying because of cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. The survey was conducted on a sample of 408 citizens of Warsaw between 50 and 80 years of age. Obtained results did not pass external scope test, even in its weak form. The magnitude of risk reduction did not have statistical influence on the probability of accepting the bid.
Marek Giergiczny

WP(9)32. Nature protection in an economically depressed region

Abstrakt

We look at perspectives of nature protection in a wetland of international importance in South-Western part of Belarus. The region is economically depressed, which may prove to be a factor in local conservation initiatives. A theoretical model is developed to identify conditions for the local population to get involved in the fen mire conservation projects. The model is then verified by means of a choice experiment administered in villages neighbouring the site. The main outcome of the valuation experiments is to demonstrate that a carefully designed conservation programme is likely to enjoy the support of the local population who appreciates economic opportunities provided by saving the wetland.
Marek Giergiczny Sviataslau Valasiuk Tomasz Żylicz Tomasz Żylicz

WP(8)31. Irregular behaviour in stating preferences for nature protection. A Choice Experiment in Belarus

Abstrakt

Using choice experiment, this paper investigates how Belarusian citizens value planned Zvanets mire protection programmes. Two approaches are used to analyze ignored attributes: a debriefing question, and estimating parameters at the individual level. We have found inconsistencies between people's declarations on ignoring certain attributes in the follow-up questions and the results of modelling at the individual level. These inconsistencies lead to statistically significant differences in WTP estimates obtained.
Marek Giergiczny Sviataslau Valasiuk Tomasz Żylicz Pere Riera

WP(7)30. Decomposition of Bivariate Inequality Indices by Attributes Revisited

Abstrakt

Decomposability of multidimensional inequality indices by attributes is considered a highly desired property. Naga and Geoffard (2006) provided for it in case of three bivariate indices. To this end, they introduced the notion of a copula function into inequality measurement theory which, as a measure of association, is a natural concept for the study of decomposability. We show that the decomposition obtained is unrelated to copulas, and prove that two indices do not admit decomposition if association is indeed measured via copula. Most notably, the proof reveals a necessary property of indices decomposable via copulas which is similar to well-known separability property.
Martyna Kobus

WP(6)29. Latent Variables and Propensity Score Matching

Abstrakt

This paper examines how including latent variables can benefit propensity score matching. A researcher can estimate, based on theoretical presumptions, the latent variable from the observed manifest variables and can use this estimate in propensity score matching. This paper demonstrates the benefits of such an approach and compares it with a method more common in econometrics, where the manifest variables are directly used in matching. We intuit that estimating the propensity score on the manifest variables introduces a measurement error that can be limited when estimating the propensity score on the estimated latent variable. We use Monte Carlo simulations to test how various matching methods behave under distinct circumstances found in practice. Also, we apply this approach to real data. Using the estimated latent variable in the propensity score matching increases the efficiency of treatment effect estimators. The benefits are larger for small samples, for non-linear processes, and for a large number of the manifest variables available, especially if they are highly correlated with the latent variable.
Maciej Jakubowski

WP(5)28. Employed Unemployed - On Shadow Employment During Transition

Abstrakt

Unregistered employment poses two types of challenges to the researchers: (i) reliably evaluating the wage differential between formally and informally employed and (ii) accounting for the push and pull factors in general and the effects of business cycle in particular. We address the former with the use of propensity score matching and analyse the evolution of the estimated average compensations and the differentials with reference to GDP and unemployment fluctuations. Using 13 years of quarterly labour force survey data from Poland on de iure unemployed but de facto employed individuals we find, that in-the-shadow compensations tend to be higher and procyclical. We also find considerable distributional heterogeneity.
Stanisław Cichocki Joanna Tyrowicz

WP(4)27. The Impact of the 1999 Education Reform in Poland

Abstrakt

Increasing the share of vocational secondary schooling has been a mainstay of development policy for decades, perhaps nowhere more so than in formerly socialist countries. The transition, however, led to significant restructuring of school systems, including a declining share of vocational students. Exposing more students to a general curriculum could improve academic abilities. This paper analyzes Poland's significant improvement in international achievement tests and the restructuring of the education system that expanded general schooling to test the hypothesis that delayed vocational streaming improves outcomes. Using propensity score matching and differences-in-differences estimates, the authors show that delayed vocationalization had a positive and significant impact on student performance on the order of one standard deviation.
Maciej Jakubowski Harry Anthony Patrinos, Emilio Ernesto Porta, Jerzy Wiśniewski

WP(3)26. Option Pricing Models with HF Data - a Comparative Study. The Properties of Black Model with Different Volatility Measures

Abstrakt

This paper compares option pricing models, based on Black model notion (Black, 1976), especially focusing on the volatility models implied in the process of pricing. We calculated the Black model with historical (BHV), implied (BIV) and several different types of realized (BRV) volatility (additionally searching for the optimal interval - and parameter n - the memory of the process). Our main intention was to find the best model, i.e. which predicts the actual market price with minimum error. We focused on the HF data and bidask quotes (instead of transactional data) in order to omit the problem of non-synchronous trading and additionally to increase the significance of our research through numerous observations. After calculation of several error statistics (RMSE, HMAE and HRMSE) and additionally the percent of price overpredictions, the results confirmed our initial intuition that that BIV is the best model, BHV being the second best, and BRV - the least efficient of them. The division of our database into different classes of moneyness ratio and TTM enabled us to observe the distinct differences between compared pricing models. Additionally, focusing on the same pricing model with different volatility processes results in the conclusion that point-estimate, not averaged process of RV is the main reason of high errors and instability of valuation in high volatility environment. Finally, we have been able to detect 'spurious outliers' and explain their effect and the reason for them owing to the multi-dimensional comparison of the pricing error statistics.
Ryszard Kokoszczyński Natalia Nehrebecka Paweł Sakowski Paweł Strawiński Robert Ślepaczuk

WP(2)25. Cynicism Starts Young: Age and Entrepreneurship over Transition

Abstrakt

Studies of self-employment determinants in developed market economies comprise the effects of business cycle, changing social structures or legal framework, industrial organization regulations and government policies. This paper contributes to the literature by analysing the cyclical patterns of self-employment determinants taking into account both the trends associated with the transition and the variability induced by economic and labour market fluctuations. We construct a consistent panel of entrepreneurship choice models based on consecutive quarterly labour force surveys for Poland - a country with nearly highest self-employment rates in CEECs and the EU - across the time span 1995q1-2008q4 and trace changes in the marginal effects estimators. We find that the notion of self-employment as survival strategy emphasised previously in the literature exhibits stronger in the periods of the labour market contraction. We also demonstrate that young university graduates prefer wage employment to entrepreneurship.
Joanna Tyrowicz Joanna Nestorowicz

WP(1)24. Application of epsilon method to modeling expectations in construction

Abstrakt

The epsilon method has been applied to examine the strength of relations among selected objective and subjective factors connected with a manager's predictions of their companies' development. The aim of this research was to study which variable has the strongest impact on business expectations in the construction industry. The results offer compelling evidence that respondents rely both on their current opinion on enterprise as well as on general economic situation. The survey was carried out based on Polish data from 2000:1 to 2008:10.
Natalia Nehrebecka Sylwia Grudkowska

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