Projekty badawcze

Import of international shocks to an open economy

UMO-2016/23/B/HS4/02357 - OPUS

The main objective of the research project is to identify on empirical grounds, the impact of external economic shocks for monetary policy in open economies.
The proposed research program involves a series of theoretical and empirical monetary policy analysis (including Polish) grouped into three interrelated groups. The Group I investigates a range of responses to capital flows; the Group II analyzes the extent of the reaction to changes in commodity prices (including energy), the Group III connects Group I and Group II with the analysis of an exchange rate corridor, beyond which a non-linear response of monetary policy occurs.
The proposed research attempts to complement the existing state of the art on monetary policy and financial stability. Thus, the investigation of monetary policy response to external shocks has fundamental consequences for the assessment of the effects of the inflation targeting strategy.
Possible confirmation of the main hypothesis would challenge the widely accepted view that before the financial crisis the sole aim of the monetary policy was to combat inflation. This would be particularly important when, despite the existing normative consensus assuming no reaction of the monetary authorities – in fact, such a reaction would have taken place.

The proposed studies also extend the knowledge on the post-crisis policies of central banks.
On this basis, main challenges facing the monetary policy will be indicated. The conclusions obtained from studies conducted in the proposed project will allow for a better understanding of the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets, and the actual functioning of the
inflation targeting strategy

Incentive compatibility in stated preference studies

UMO-2017/25/B/HS4/01076 - OPUS

The  proposed  project  will  address  state-of-the-art  methods  for  modeling  consumers’  preferences  and  the  valuation  of  public  goods.  Preference  modeling  underlies  modern  microeconomics,  and  it  is  difficult to overemphasize its importance. The theory of economics has developed several methods that estimate the value of  non-market  goods. 

The  most  flexible  method  and  currently,  the  most  widely  applied,  is  the  contingent  valuation method, which is combined with elicitation questions in the form of a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE).Our  research  project  addresses  fundamental  methodological  problems  that  are  related  to  eliciting  consumer  preferences,  i.e.,  the  incentive  compatibility  of  survey  instruments  that  are  used  in  stated  preference  DCE  studies. Incentive compatibility allows for obtaining information about true preferences, since it assures that giving a true answer is respondent’s best strategy. The project is an answer to the recently proposed theory on incentive compatibility in DCEs, which suggests that the following conditions should be fulfilled in order to elicit true preferences: (1) the survey must be seen as consequential, i.e. respondents must be convinced about real consequences following from the survey results and (2) according to the Gibbard-Satterthwaite’s theorem, message space should not be larger than binary, which means one choice situation consisting of exactly two alternatives per respondent. 

The aim of our project is to empirically verify the importance of the conditions for incentive compatibility, proposed in the theoretical literature. The verification will be based on experimental field studies, which will be  conducted  in  typical conditions of application of contingent  valuation  methods. 

In  particular,  the  project  addresses the following research questions: (1) if incentive compatibility is indeed necessary (and sufficient) for respondents’ truthful preference elicitation, (2) which of the conditions (consequentiality, the number of choice tasks, the number of choice alternatives) plays a major role in ensuring truthful preference revelation(3) how to econometrically account for the extent to which these conditions are satisfied, to potentially correct biased estimates, and (4) based on Monte Carlo simulations – establishing the extent of the bias and the change of the statistical efficiency resulting from violating each condition

NGI FORWARD

825652 - HORYZONT 2020

NGI Forward is tasked with helping the European Commission set out a strategy, as well as a policy and research agenda for the years ahead.

To build an internet that is more democratic, inclusive and resilient, we need to not just create an ambitious vision for the future, but also identify the concrete technologies and solutions we need to get us there. To do this, NGI Forward’s work focuses on four key areas of activity, which together will form the “engine” of the project: the identification of key topics, consultation, policy and research, and stakeholder engagement.

READ MORE: https://research.ngi.eu/

Fear of a pandemic. Biases in risk perception and risk taking in the time of coronavirus.

UMO-2020/01/0/HS4/00251 - COVID-19

The new coronavirus has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives worldwide. The pandemic has been referred to as the worst global crisis since World War II. Actions of governments and individuals (such as implementing social distancing) may slow down the spread of the virus, thereby saving lives.

However, they come at great psychological and economic costs. Both the governments and individuals are therefore facing a challenge of making reasonable judgments and decisions when facing a fearsome threat. In this project, we will investigate how framing of decision-making problems in terms of coronavirus affects people’s ability (and willingness) to stick to the rational solutions. Towards this end we will ask participants of our online experiments to answer a number of questions.

These will be tricky in that intuitive answers will be different from correct answers. For example, the responder may be informed that a COVID test gives the correct result in 95% of the cases and asked what is the probability that a person whose test cam out positive is indeed infected. The intuitive answer is 95%, but the true answer critically depends on the fraction of population that is infected; in particular, when it is very low, most positive results are false positives. We will check if such deviations from rationality are more or less frequent than in equivalent, but less emotionally taxing, more neutral framings. For example, another group of participants will be told that a medical examination of a patient suspected to have common cold gives the correct result in 95% of the cases (and asked to answer an analogous question). Interestingly, existing literature does not give obvious predictions.

On the one hand, fear may make people more attentive. On the other hand, it may make them focus exclusively on some aspects of the situation. For example, in risky choices, fear tends to make people focus too much on the worst possible outcomes, causing risk aversion. To verify if it is indeed fear that drives the difference between the coronavirus treatment and other treatments (if any), we will ask a number of questions about various emotions participants might experience and thoughts they may ponder when answering.

The project will serve three main goals: • We will be able to check how fear and other emotions affect decision-making in the state of pandemic, possibly also leading to such irrational decisions as panic buying. • We will be able to offer suggestions how these distortions could be corrected. • Utilizing the exceptional “natural experiment” of the coronavirus crisis, we will contribute to the broader literature on how fear and other emotions affect rationality, risk perception and risk taking

Modelowanie instrumentów polityki prorodzinnej w kontekście stabilnosci systemu emerytalnego

0169/DIA/2016/45 - DIAMENTOWY GRANT

W większości krajów rozwiniętych spadająca dzietność i wydłużające się dalsze trwanie życia powodują coraz większą presję fiskalną. Modele nakładających się pokoleń pozwalają ocenić długookresowe efekty dobrobytowe polityk emerytalnych i prorodzinnych. Wyzwaniem w sensie naukowym pozostaje w pełni endogeniczne uwzględnienie dzietności. Poza tym, literatura proponuje rozwiązanie w warunkach deterministycznych, a uwzględnienie wpływu szoków dochodowych na dzietność jest nowym nurtem zapoczątkowanym w pracy Sommer (2016). Głównym celem projektu jest rozbudowanie modelu Sommer o fiskalnie nieneutralny system emerytalny, ścieżkę przejścia pomiędzy systemami emerytalnymi oraz instrumenty fiskalane bezpośredniego wspierania dzietności.

Modelling of the impact of big infrastructure project on regional development

UMO-2016/22/E/HS4/00464 - SONATA BIS

The main goal of the project is an assessment of the impact of big infrastructure projects on regional development. We also want to verify whether the amount of financial means devoted to the big projects is adequate as compared to the real costs associated to their completion.  The  results  of  the  project  will  allow  to  expand  the  knowledge  concerning  the  relationship between public investment and productivity.

Aschauer, who pioneered the research in this field in  the  late  1980s,  shows  strong  and  positive  relationship  between  public  infrastructure investment and economic growth in the US. Other authors shed certain doubts on his results (e.g. Munnel or Holtz-Eakin). In Europe, the positive correlation between public investment and economic development has been found by Alvarez Pinilla et al. or de la Fuente. They argue though that that the infrastructure is more productive in regions with higher level of economic development.

Similar results have been reported by Cieślik and Rokicki for Poland. It should be noted that none of the existing studies verify the possible differences between big and small infrastructure projects.

However, in Poland only between 2004 and 2015 over 130 projects worth more than euro 100 million each were implemented. It seems important though to verify whether they really improve regional economic development and if their budgets are adequate to their costs. The latter is particularly important taking into account the criticism by Flyvbjerg.  Proposed project deals also with the methodological shortcomings of existing studies – most of them rely on the estimation of neoclassical production function. This approach has however, many theoretical and econometric limitations.

Hence, we will apply different methodological approaches such as CGE modelling, spatial econometrics or actuarial methods. The main reason behind the choice of the research topic is the lack of the studies that would focus on the specific features of big infrastructure projects. As a result there exists a gap in the literature that can be, for the first time, at least partially filled due to the completion of proposed project.

The role of internal and external factors in remuneration

UMO-2018/31/B/HS4/01562 - OPUS

Is overeducation persistent or transitory: dynamics of the phenomenon in countries under education boom

UMO-2016/23/N/HS4/03626 - PRELUDIUM

Poland experienced a substantial education boom. The share of tertiary educated workers rose from 10.0% to 32.5% in 1992-2014. Similar intensity of education structure change was observed also in other EU new member states. The immense expansion of tertiary education raises question whether it was accommodated by the labour market. In fact, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that University graduates are forced to take jobs that are below their education level. We call those people ‘overeducated’. However, there is surprisingly little scientific evidence on overeducation incidence and its change over time in Poland.

This project will investigate changes in overeducation incidence, characteristics of overeducated individuals and impact of overeducation on job and wage mobility in Poland and certain new member states. Hence, the project will contribute to better understanding of overeducation in economies undergoing rapid education shift.

Determinants of Business Management adoption in an organization

UMO-2017/27/B/HS4/01734 - OPUS

The  main  aim  of  the  proposed  project  is  to  examine  the  factors  that  may  encourage asuccessful  Business Process  Management  (BPM)  adoption in  an  organization. BPM  is  a  recognized  management  concept  that includes identifying, modeling, analyzing, implementing and continuous improvementof business processes for the purpose of increasing the effectiveness of an organization.

BPM has been developing for over 25 years in the field of Information Systems research and isan important topic in research on improving performance, preparing anorganization for implementing IT systems, and, increasing customer satisfaction.

Organizations are eager to use the methods and IT tools that BPM offers. However, not all projects of organizational changes that introduce a process approach are successful, nor the achieved effects of changes sustainable. Research on BPM focuses on the critical success factors, on the selected phases of the BPM life cycle(most often on the phase  of  process  modeling),  or  on  the  methods  of  measuring  process  maturity. 

However,  there  is  a  lack  of research  on  factors  that  are  predictors  of a successful  BPM  adoption  and  which  indicate anorganization's readiness  for saidadoption.  In  the  proposed  project,  we  will  identify  and  investigate  the  determinants promising a successful BPM adoption and we will propose a theoretical model of BPM adoptiontaking into account the technological, organizational and environmental context. The model will include factors that may predict a high or low level of BPM  adoption before an organization finally makesa  decision to implementBPM.  We  plan  to  conduct  research  in  Polish  public  and  private  sector  organizations  and  to  compare  the identified  factors  between said sectors. In  addition,  the  project  aims  to  examine  the  motivations to  makea decision on BPM adoption and to comparethese motivations between Polish organizations in the public and private sector.

Innovation capabilities of firms in selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe(CEE) and their participation in global value chains (GVC)

UMO-2017/27/B/HS4/01696 - OPUS

The aim of the project is to analyze the complex relationship between firm capabilities –especiallyinnovation capabilities –and firm internationalization strategies in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries.

We will devote a special attention to the ways firmsparticipatein global value chains(GVC).

Our specific research questions include the following:

1. Is it true that firms with better innovation capabilities are more likely to choose foreign markets (i.e. to export)?

2. For exporting firms, what is the relationship between theircapabilitiesand exporting strategies(the choice of the foreign market, the direct/indirect exporting mix)?

3. Is a higher degree of internationalization of a firm related to more advanced managerial practices(the ‘capabilities escalator hypothesis’)?

4. What is the role of foreign partners (mother-or sister companies, customers, suppliers, R&D institutes etc.) in the development oftheinnovationsof firms?5.Do the firms which export indirectly exhibit similar characteristics and a similar level of innovation capabilities and as those thatexport directly their products?6.Is the role of productivity, innovations, internationalization and other characteristics of firms the same or different for the firms that export directly and indirectly ?

7. Are firm-level determinants of indirect exports differentiated by geography, i.e. different for Poland, Visegrad countries and other CEE Countries?

8. Do indirect exports create a chance for broader participation in the GVC?

9. Which forms of internationalization of firms increase significantly their innovation capabilities?