Projekty badawcze

The influence of behavioral effects on valuation of private consumer goods - experimental approach.

UMO-2017/27/N/HS4/02116 - PRELUDIUM

Understanding the mechanisms that influence consumer decisions and their perception of the value of products and services is the subject of considerations in many fields of science, including economics, psychology, marketing, and management. Researchers and business practitioners are constantly trying to evaluate the determinants of the valuation of various goods by consumers and to find methods and models that help to properly set prices. Many of the research methods commonly used in marketing research involve hypothetical questions that do not have real financial consequences for respondents.

It has often been found that hypothetical values of willingness to pay exceed real values, a phenomenon referred to as the hypothetical bias. Declarative valuation is far from real consumer choices, because the respondents are aware that their declaration is in no way binding. It can therefore be suspected that hypothetical data is of inferior quality compared to data on actual choices. In this project, we will examine selected manifestations of this supposition. We will check whether the tendency to violate principles of rationality grows when the reported valuations have no real consequences for the participants. We focus on two phenomena: the anchoring effect, in which participant’s numeric judgment is influenced by irrelevant numbers provided by the experimenter and the framing effect, in which decisions depend on how the information is presented (e.g. in positive or negative way). Given that these behavioral effects represent a disturbing aspect of human judgment and decision making, it is certainly worth knowing if they may be lessened when reported values have real consequences.

Undoubtedly, influencing consumers’ willingness to pay is one of the goals of marketing activities, and some of them are associated with the concepts of anchoring and framing. One common example of using the anchoring effect include fixing a high initial price of products or services and then selling them at a discount. Another involves including a really expensive sort of wine in the menu to boost willingness to pay for the other varieties. Using the mechanisms of the framing effect (especially the positive attribute framing) seems to be even more common in advertising messages or slogans. The study of the impact of these mechanisms on valuation is therefore also of great practical importance.

As part of the project, a series of field experiments will be carried out together with surveys, providing additional information about respondents and their shopping habits. Experiments will be carried out in a shopping mall, about 1,600 respondents will take part in them. In experiments both hypothetical and real methods will be used. In the hypothetical condition, participants will be directly asked about maximum price that they would be willing to pay for the presented product. In the real condition the price indicated by participant will be compared with the number drawn by the experimenter. If the price is lower than drawn number, real purchasing transaction will be conducted. Additionally, before the valuation, the respondents will be provided with a number (a low or high anchor), whereas in another part of the study – positive or negative attribute framing. Various product groups will be used for the valuation - a product from the cosmetics or chemical market and a food product. This will allow us to check whether similar results are obtained in different product categories. The influence of any respondents’ characteristics, such as age or place of residence, on the discussed effects, will also be examined.

The results of the project will contribute to supplementing and deepening the knowledge on determinants of the valuation of consumer goods. One of the more important expected results of the proposed project is also the contribution to the improvement of research methods for eliciting the market prices of consumer goods.

Environmental capital. A study on how ecological choice influences other relevantbehaviors of consumers

UMO-2018/29/N/HS4/02608 - PRELUDIUM

The change in energy sector from centralized to distributed increasesthe level of accountability and responsibility of microgeneration, which leads to acreation ofa new sector of decentralized energy consumers and producers -prosumers.

Prosumers can generate electricity using environment-friendlytechnologies. Since prosumers have influence on the environmental quality and the social welfare, itis worth analyzingwhat drives a prosumer to produce energy. Economic  experiments  and  research  show  that  a  seemingly  positive  decision  can  lead  to  other, potentially negative choices. The phenomenon has been described as moral licensingunderstood as entitlingto a self-indulgent behavior by doing positive action. Therefore, the questionsthat the author would like to answerin the research arefollowing:isit possible, that agents who choose environmental-friendly or altruistic act, feel free to act selfishly in other relevant situationsregarding environment protection? Additionally, it will be analyzedif other relevant decisions of prosumers can be influenced by the rebound effectused to describe net negative outcomesof energy efficiency increase.If arebound effectis observed, lower energy consumption results  in  a  reduction  of  other  costs  and  higher  disposable  income,  allowing  individualsto  increase  their consumption.

The third possible result of prosumers’ actions, in contrast to moral licensingand rebound,is the spillover  effect,  understood  as  a  positive  externality  of  one  environmentally  friendly  decision  on  other relevant choices.To sum up, three possible effects of environmentally relevant effects have been identified as far. 

The  research  will  aim  at  further  analyzing  them  and  providing  relevantconclusion  under  what circumstances they can be observed.To fully understand the motivesof environmentally relevant choices, the author would like to propose a concept of environmentalcapital. The idea isdefined as an assetbuilt on choices regarding conservation of the  environment,that  enables  individuals  to  internalize  the  effect  of  their  actions  on  others. Environmental capital can be affected by choices and acts of an individual agentand it should increase with effort devoted to environment   conservation   tasks. Environmental   capitalshould accumulatewhen individuals   actively participate  in  conservation  of  the  environment  (e.g. renewable  energy  prosumers,  public  transportation commuters, people  who recycle,  etc.)  and depletewhen instead  of protectingthe  environment,oneactsselfishly (e.g. by consuming cheap conventional energy, drivinghighly polluting cars, etc.).Hence, it will beanalyzedif an individual can learn how to bemore altruistic by experiencing positive spillover effect, or learn how to beselfish from selfless acts, experiencing moral licensingor reboundeffect(i.e. altruistic choice can generate eitherpositive ornegative externality). 

Informal institutions, competitiveness of elections and economic outcomes

UMO-2017/25/B/HS4/01072 - OPUS

The  proposed  project aims  at  providing  at  least  partial  answer  to  the  question  about  the  impact  that informal institutions (understood as social normsorcommon behavioural patterns) may have on voter turnout  in  local  elections, competitiveness  of these elections,and  economic  outcomes, with  a particular  attention  paid to  the  issue  of the  distribution  of  economic  resources.

The planned research will  look  at  these  relationships  using the  local  level  data  for Polandduring  the  period  of  transition from acentrally  planned  economy  to  amarket  economy. The  analysis  of  the  role  of  informal institutions will focus on the importance of secularisation process, which translates, among others, into the  decreased religious  attendance. Taking  into  account  that many  social  norms  are  directly  or indirectly  derived  from religion, changes  in  religious  attendance,whichwere observed during  the transition period, can provide a good approximation of the differences between municipalities as far as informal institutions are concerned.

The  project  aims  at  verifying  the  following  research  hypotheses:a) in  municipalities  in  which  the secularisation processduring  the  transition  periodwas  more  intense,currentlythe voter  turnout  in local  elections  is  lower; b)in  municipalities in  which  the secularisation processduring  the  transition periodwas more intense,currently the competitiveness of elections is smaller; c) in municipalities in which  the secularisation processduring  the  transition  periodwas  more  intense, currently  the distribution of economic resources is more unequal

Social norm information and consumers' preferences for environmental goods

UMO-2015/19/N/HS4/03365 - PRELUDIUM

The  project  addresses  the scientific issue  of the  social norm information impact  on consumers’preferencesfor  environmental  goods.

The influenceof  information  on  preferences  is recognizedin behavioral  economics.The  role  of  social  norms  in  shaping  preference  for  environmental  goods  is  a relatively new area of interest amongst environmental economists. The proposed empirical study will allow  toobserve changes  in  consumers’preferences  with  respect  to  the  environmental  good  under varyinginformation about social norms.Basingon  the  results  of hitherto research  and  analysis  of  the  data  from  the  preliminary investigation  conducted  by  the  author  of  the  project, the  following  hypotheses were  formulated: information about social norms influence the preference for environmental goods, influence of social norm  information  on  consumers’preferences  is  heterogeneous  and influence  of  high  and  low  social norm information is asymmetric.

This project will examinefactors that could explain heterogeneity in reaction to social norm information: consumers’prior expectations about social norm and consumers’motivation types

Global commodity price links: A high frequency evaluation of co-movement and hedging opportunities

UMO-2017/27/N/HS4/02037 - PRELUDIUM

The world economy is getting more closely connected. This means that for most of the world’s highlysought after commodities, events in New York or London can have impacts on prices in markets halfway across the globe. This is especially more so when production is distributedacross multiple locations, but market clearing through the price system is centralized in a few of the world’s financial capitals.

This study takes a new and formal look at how prices are interlinked across markets, with particularfocus on one of the world’s most highly traded commodities: coffee. This market is characterized bya physical auction where “green beans” are traded by producers (farmers, cooperatives or their agents) and an international world market where forward contracts (claims for the delivery of a prespecified amount of the underlying product) are traded. The forward or futures market reflects expectations about future supply and demand. It also acts as an avenue for risk management forsophisticated producers and an investment vehicle for financial speculators.

In an integrated global commodity market, changes in expectations as reflected by movements inthe prices of exchange traded contracts should affect spot prices in the physical auction. While we have reason to believe this intuition to be correct, we do not know the direction of causality nor the size of cross-market transmission. For physical and forward markets that are separated by great geographical distance, it become paramount to interrogate the data. This study is an attempt to bridge the gap in our knowledge about global scale price transmission from financial to physical markets or vice-versa and in the process to evaluate the feasibility of hedging spot price risk at the physical market with futures at financial exchanges. The plan to achieve this goal proceeds in two steps: collection of historical and high-frequency primary data from the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (the spot market) and forward prices from an international futures exchange; the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, followed by state of the art. econometric analysis.

Establishing cross-market linkages requires looking at long time series. Primary historical datagoing back 20 years on average auction prices at the physical market will be obtained from records atthe Nairobi Coffee Exchange. Together with the more readily available forward prices from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, these data form a time series from which inference about long-term correlation can be made. A more detailed analysis requires looking at high frequency data from the physical auction. Such data provide insight on private valuations of buyers at the physical market and can be used to construct a demand curve. Having a demand schedule and price series, an evaluation of the feasibility of hedging spot (physical) price risk using exchange traded forwards canthen be undertaken. At the end of this process, we should have established the level and direction of price transmission between the two markets and the feasibility of hedging spot price risk using the forward market.

FIN-TECH A FINancial supervision and TECHnology compliance training programme

828215 - HORYZONT 2020

Determinants of overconfidence: evidence from sports and games.

UMO-2017/27/B/HS4/00624 - OPUS

In this project we wish to explore under what conditions people are likely to be excessively confident about their own qualities and abilities. Previous literature suggests that such a fallacy is quite common. For example, large majority of drivers claim that they are better than a typical driver, which obviously must be far from the truth. This and related tendencies are described with the notion of “overconfidence”. It has been suggested that overconfidence may help explain many different puzzling observations, including prevalence of sports betting, insufficient saving, excessive trading on the stock exchange and (grossly) unprofitable mergers and acquisitions in the corporate world. To be sure, there are also alternative explanations to these complex phenomena. Laboratory experiments make it possible to observe overconfidence more directly, and the conditions under which people make theirpredictions can be easily manipulated. This may help us understand the phenomenon better. In particular, if people report high confidence to appear skilled or competent, making their predictions public may strengthen the tendency. By contrast, making thepossibly embarrassing actual performance public can reduce overconfidence, and so can providing direct monetary rewards for predicting correctly. The disadvantage of using experiments is that their results may or may not generalize to less artificial tasks and contexts, social groups other than students, higher stakes etc. In this project we will implement novel designs of laboratory, but also field, and natural experiments to achieve possibly clean identification of overconfidence in large and diversified samples. We will study forecasts and behavior of amateur runners and parlor game players, as well as student population.

We will use two main measures of overconfidence. In our studies of runners forecast error will be calculated as the difference (positive or negative) between the time in which the runner predicted she would complete the race and the actual time she needed. On the other hand, Slowdown will reflect the difference between the speed in the first and the second half of the race, calculated using final and split times. Large slowdown suggests an overly optimistic (overconfident) start. Similarly we will observe both explicit forecasts and choices signaling confidence or lack thereof in parlor games and in laboratory tasks. We will use these measures to study several under-researched topics related to overconfidence. We will look at the differences between various professions, to check if, say, lawyers that are trained to appear self-confident and possibly rewarded for that are indeed moreoverconfident than, say, librarians. We will investigate the role of experience with the task, exploring if seasoned runners make more reliable forecasts and plan their pace better. We will investigate the role of predictions being made privately vs. publicly. It is possible, for example, that typically observed male overconfidence is merely a matter of different self-presentation styles being perceived as appropriate for the two genders. We will also check if rewarding correct predictions makes a difference. Finally, we will compare overconfidence in easier vs. more difficult tasks, for example shorter vs. longer races. To summarize, we will investigate several dimensions that might affect the likelihood of overconfident declarations and behaviors but have not been subject to sufficient study so far. This was mostly because suitable data sets were not available, the problem we solve with our innovative approach to identifying overconfidence in the field.

R-EDUREFORM - Social dialogue and industrial relations in education: the challenges of multi-level governance and of privatization in Europe

VS/2020/0120 - HORYZONT 2020

With a view to foster quality and inclusive education as laid down in the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR), the proposed project is to add substantially to the knowledge base and understanding on the dynamics between industrial relations in the education sector, global and European reform trends, and ongoing developments in European Union governance system, such as the mainstreaming of the EPSR into the European Semester framework, and the ‘relaunch’ of social dialogue.

Specifically, the research will focus on how the process and outcomes of the European Semester, as a form of multi-level governance, and the related main education reforms promoted across Europe are changing teachers' working environments and rights, and boosting shifts in well-established forms of industrial relations and social dialogue at the national level. The project consortium, composed by ETUCE and the project co-applicants – UCLouvain, University of Naples Federico II and University of Warsaw, will meet twice to prepare and evaluate the research work. An EU-level analysis and survey will be complemented by an in-depth investigation in 4 EU countries with different industrial relations models, and prevailing paths of education reforms/privatisation: Belgium, Italy, Sweden and Poland.

Research outcomes are to provide evidence on how developments in industrial relations at the European and national scales are associated with patterns of privatisation. Education trade unions members of ETUCE, stakeholders and policy makers will have the chance to discuss the implications of the research findings on the future further mainstreaming of the European Pillar of Social Rights into the EU-level governance at the occasion of the research launch conference which will gather around 60 representatives from EU/EFTA and Candidate countries. The outcomes are to be distributed in the form of a report, summary and glossary to facilitate the dissemination of academic findings among relevant stakeholders.

COST 27 503,28 EUR

Occupational self-selection: the role of parents

UMO-2016/21/N/HS4/02109 - PRELUDIUM

"Who  are  you?" -To  such  a  question,  a  first  thought  is  to  answer  with  occupation.  "I'm  a  lawyer", "I'm  a  doctor,"  "I'm  an  astronaut" -there  are  few  choices  inour  lives  that  in such  a  comprehensive manner  determine  who  we  are  or  even  what  we  feel  we  are.  The  choice  of  profession  is  therefore unique  in  many  ways.  Admittedly,  the  decision  is  taken  in  high  school,  but  also  undeniably  it becomes a turning point in the lives of virtually everyone.What are the drivers of the choice of profession? Why do we want to be a dancer and not a scientist? A  doctor  and  not  a  firefighter?  While  there  are  possibly  many  factors,  in  economic  theory  it  is assumed that the decisionis based on two pieces of information: the cost of acquiring education and future  earnings.  If  we  were  all  alike,  the  logic  of  this  model  implies  we  would  all  choose  the  same profession.  But  we  are  not -we  differ  in  ability  to  learn  various  subjects  and acquire  specific  skills, finally we also differ in how productive we are at many tasks. Although the theoretical model shows the way, to achieve highest gains for individuals and economy at large -perfect assign of people to occupations in practice does not happen. Not everyone who has the  ability  to  perform  very  complex  work  has  the  means  to  learn  them.  Some  workers  are (sometimes  even  at  the  level  of  education)  discriminated  against  because  of  characteristics  that  do not affect their productivity, for example  due to gender or race. These factors have already been at the interest to economic research.This study takes a different starting point, focusing on internal factors, most notably: preferences. So far, majority of the literature takes the preferences as given, a "black box". Yet, preferences are not something we are born with, but rather an outcome of formation during childhood and adolescence. They are thus undoubtedly affected by parents.Our  study  will  inquire  the  extent  to  which  parents'  example  and  beliefs  have  an  impact  on  the shaping  of  preferences  and,  consequently,  the  choice  of  occupation  by  youth.  Parents  listening, watching  and  giving  advice  build  an  image  of  the  world.  Why  this mechanism may  be  important?  It affects the perception of costs and benefits evaluated at the moment of choosing the profession.Analyzing  the  impact  of  parents  on  children's  career  decisions  seem  particularly  relevant  to  the socalled. "problem of self-selection". When we look at the labor market and then who goes to which the  profession,  we  can  easily  extract  the  professions  dominated  by  men  and  those  dominated  by women.   So   the   question   arises:   whether   the   distribution   stems   from   preferences   or   maybe influenced  by  other  factors?  The  labor  market  is  changing -both  men  and  women  are  increasingly opting for professions traditionally reserved for representatives of the other sex. This would suggest that  differences  in  preferences  are  not  only  nature,  but  also  nurture.  At  the  same  time  the  gap  in participation,  in  some  professions  still  remains  wide.  Moreover,  women  often  choose  lower  paid
professions,  resulting  in  the  wage  gap  between  women  and  men.  From  this  perspective,  exploring the  mechanism  of  formation  of  the  professional  preferences  seems  not  only  interesting  but  also important from the point of view of development.

Analysis of factors influencing believes, attitudes and support level for solutions reducing negative effect of Anthropogenic Climate Change

UMO-2017/25/N/HS4/01055 - PRELUDIUM

A believe that the currently observed, fast climate changes are caused mainly by human activity is widely spread among scientists dealing with climate. Global Warming has its roots in the industrial revolution, which enabled people to reach high, never before attainable, level of living. Unfortunately, the negative side effects of the development of civilisation become a growing threat for the rest of life on Earth, and in a long run for people themselves. Causes and possible consequences of Global Warming are already well recognised by the experts working in this field. There are also developed solutions which could effectively counteract this problem.

The paradox of this situation is that despite the massive importance of the problem and detailed expert analyses of both: the causes and the possible outcomes, negative tendencies are getting even stronger. The intuitive assumption that presenting righteous information concerning the problem is an effective way of convincing society that actions in this field are indispensable, turned out to be faulty. The situation iscomplicated even further by the political and industrial lobbies which try to manipulate people's believes concerning environmental problems.

Experts dealing with the issue of Global Warming agree that the threats resulting from this phenomenon are serious and they require immediate preventive actions (such as: reduction of CO2 emissions, adapting cities and agriculture to weather anomalies occurring more often etc.) However, there is an important and often mentioned in the literature barrier which hinders or even disables introduction of such actions -low social support.

The project will allow to check what is the impact of various factors indicated in the scholar literature of the subject on the support for actions counteracting Climate Change. The study is based on social psychology, experimental economy and ecological psychology. Such interdisciplinary approach enables to look at the problem from a different angle and carries great possibility of discovering new, important knowledge. Comparing in one project the significance of e.g. understanding of the causes of the phenomenon, assessment of its consequences, feeling responsible, susceptibility for the mechanism of denial of cumbersome information etc., would allow to evaluate relations between thefactors and assess their impact on support for actions reducing negative effects of Global Warming.

Moreover, the strong point of the research is conducting it in two countries –in Poland and in Germany. They are similar when it comes to geography, culture and structure of population, but they differ significantly with their climate and energy policies.

The intention of the applicant is to better understand the factors shaping attitudes towards Anthropogenic Climate Change and thus to contribute in creation of more effective ways of reaching people with knowledge concerning this problem and solutions recommended by the experts.